Time To Admit It's Over For Randy Moss

 

We usually don't get too personal here at Cold, Hard Football Facts, because emotions and feelings and the like are for the weak.

 

But here's a CHFF for you: I, the great and powerful Colonel Comey, have not one, not two, but three Randy Moss jerseys hanging in my closet. Yep. Minnesota (84), Oakland (18) and New England (81). A signed Moss plaque hangs on my wall. A Moss action figure stands on my bookshelf, purple and yellow, depicting a one-handed grab. Literally no athlete has provided more thrills to me personally as a fan over the years.

 

That said, put a fork in him. 

 

He's done.

 

Thanks for the memories.

 

Reports surfaced this week that the Jets are intrigued with the possibilities of Moss for the 2011 season (assuming, and all that), and they might well be. He might even sign a contract with New York, and will certainly have a job somewhere when the dust settles.

 

But will he be a productive receiver again? History more or less screams "NO!"

 

A quick scroll through the careers of the retired wide receivers in the top 20 all time in total yards shows that there comes a point in each player's arc that they go from being productive starters seasons to absolute sub-mediocrity – and that when the player hits that point, it is over.

 

Usually it happens in the mid-30s, and Moss turned 34 in February. And he certainly qualifies for sub-mediocre status after a brutal 2010.

Here's how the NFL's great pass-catchers fared after their first truly bad season after achieving star status (injury-shortened seasons don't count as bad ones):

The only case that should give Moss fans any hope is James Lofton, who came back from a 28-catch season in 1988 with the Raiders at the age of 32 to regain Pro Bowl status in Buffalo at 35.

 

So there's that. But that's a single outlier in a sea of sameness.

 

Of course, it doesn't appear that you even need history to determine that Moss' time as a productive NFL receiver is over.

 

He was just about the most unproductive wideout in the league in 2010, 80th among receivers in yards (393) – better than only Oakland's Darrius Heyward-Bey and St. Louis' Laurent Robinson among WRs with 10 or more starts. And, of course, he's a well-publicized problem, his genius abilities as a receiver always coming with puzzling behavior as a side order.

 

Even though three franchises kicked the tires on Moss in 2010 – and then called the tow truck – he will almost certainly have suitors when NFL business resumes.

 

His production from 2007-09 (average of 1,255 yards and 16 touchdowns) was elite, and his jump-ball savvy could be even more valuable with less practice time and shorter playbooks.

 

But a return to form?

 

Painful as it is for a Moss apologist to admit, it's bloody unlikely.