The Waterboy: Mid-week catchup

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 15, 2011



By Luis DeLoureiro
Cold, Hard Football Facts Waterboy


Week 1 of the NFL season ended early Tuesday morning.  We can neither confirm nor deny this, but we’re hearing that several of the league’s defensive backs are being treated for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder.
 
The balls were flying all over the place and the aforementioned DBs were powerless to stop it.
 
Consider:
 
ONE – Fourteen quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards.  The highest total in 2010 was Week 10, when 13 players achieved the feat.
 
TWO – Four players surpassed 400 yards passing.  The highest in 2010 was two (Weeks 2, 3 and 5)
 
THREE – As everyone knows by now, Tom Brady threw for over 500 yards.  The highest total in 2010 was 497 by Matt Schaub in Week 2.
 
FOUR  - Five games featured two 300-yard passers.
 
FIVE – The Miami-New England game featured two 400-yard passers.
 
Anyone who has spent any time reading CHFF knows that we look at these stats and shrug……..volume stats historically have very little correlation to the outcome of the game.
 
And, as incredible as the numbers sound, this week’s inflated passing numbers did not produce victories across the board.
 
300-yard passers went 8-6, but, as we previously stated, five of those wins came against other 300-yard passers.  400-yard passers went 1-3, with Brady being the only 400-yard passer to produce a victory (against Chad Henne – who surpassed 400 yards).
 
Unlike the this week’s passing yardage stats, our Quality Stats were very good predictors of the outcome of this week’s games.
 
We’ve only looked at two Quality Stats – DPR and YPA – but the message is clear. 
 
Teams that won the DPR battle went 13-3 and teams that won YPA went 12-4.
 
We’ll track this (as well as the other Quality Stats) throughout the season.  But, so far, our stats are far superior.

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