The Thursday night pick: Bills will get caught stealing against Jets

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 02, 2009



Our aptly named real and spectacular weekly picks continued to live up to the hype and to the milky All-American goodness of Teri Hatcher's bosom in Week 12.
 
We went 12-3 straight up and 10-5 against the spread, giving us our third consecutive week of double-digit wins ATS and our 10th week of winners in 12 opportunities this year. Our mom is so proud she posted our picks on the fridge this week.
 
For the 2009 season we are now:
  • 121-54 (.691) straight up
  • 103-72 (.589) ATS, a spectacular 31 games in the plus column
Compare that to the performance of our friends at CBS Sports.com, from where we get the spreads that we use each week. Four of their six "experts" are below .500 and only one is within four games of our performance this year.
 
We'll try to get all our picks out Thursday (some of you have asked that we get all our picks out before the first game), but our regular Friday date is more likely. You can't rush real and spectacular bosomy goodness. 
 
N.Y. Jets (-2.5) at Buffalo (in Maple Leafville)
If there's an opposite of grand, that's the style in which the NFL kicks off Week 13.
 
The Jets and Bills are two low-wattage clubs who will play in front of what will probably look and sound like a disinterested Toronto crowd Thursday night.  
 
The Jets and Bills are both good in one area and one area only, pass defense. Buffalo ranks No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating behind the play of rookie safety Jairus Byrd, who leads the league with 8 picks (tied with Darren Sharper).
 
New York ranks No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating behind the play of shutdown corner-du-jour Darrelle Revis, who leads the NFL with 22 passes defended.
 
That spells a long day for both under-whelming quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez and Ryan Fitzpatrick, but it will be especially difficult for the Jets trigger man. He's been haunted by interceptions throughout his rookie campaign (17), and now he's up against a team that's second in the league, only to New Orleans, with 21 picks.
 
The Bills also boast the biggest offensive playmaker in the contest, Terrell Owens, who broke out with a 51-yard TD reception last week against the Dolphins. But the battle between he and Revis will be the marquee individual battle of the night, and Revis has won almost all those battles this year.
 
The Bills edged out the Jets at the Meadowlands in their October meeting and they showed signs of new life last week in their win over Miami under interim coach Perry Fewell. The coach has really made a great impact on football since his days with Jane's Addiction.
 
show video here
 
In fact, he should devote his hit song to Byrd, who will add another key pick against Sanchez Thursday night that will prove the difference in this tightly contested but underwhelming performance.
 
Tell us how it goes. We'll be glued to a game that actually means something, the Civil War and the battle for the Rose Bowl Thursday night.
 
Buffalo 20, N.Y. Jets 16
 

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