The Steel Curtain's secret

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Feb 10, 2009



The pigskin "pundits" can build dikes, levees and seawalls of misinformation, but ultimately the crashing tide of truth called the Cold, Hard Football Facts will overwhelm them.
 
Consider the erosive effect of the Cold, Hard Football Facts when it comes to washing away the persistent belief of the "pundits" in the importance of the ground game.
 
You know the story by now: conventional wisdom tells us that the ground game is omnipotent. The Cold, Hard Football Facts inundate this belief as if it were a gridiron Galveston circa 1900:
 
The passing game, not the running game, is what really matters in pro football.
 
We've discovered more evidence of the importance of the passing game here in the choppy whitewater wake of Pittsburgh's victory in Super Bowl XLIII.
 
The 2008 champion Steelers fielded one of the best defenses in recent memory. This defensive success naturally drew comparisons to the great Steel Curtain defenses of the 1970s. We wrote about these comparisons ourselves during the season.
 
The conventional wisdom is that the 1970s Steel Curtain was a dominant defensive powerhouse because it stopped the run so effectively. Even our own pal Peter King at SportsIllustrated.com perpetuated this myth.
 
He recently wrote that stopping the run was the "hallmark" of the Steel Curtain.
 
King is a friend of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. He's been very good to us and has contacted us over the years about various stories, and we know that support from writers at SI.com is the reason why we have our nifty little relationship with them today.
 
But in this case King is incorrect, as are all the others who have perpetuated this fallacy over the years, to the point that the dominance of the Steel Curtain run defense has become unquestioned gridiron gospel.
 
The truth, however, is that the 1970s Steel Curtain was sometimes very good against the run, but sometimes not so hot. The Super Bowl champion 1975 Steelers, for example, ranked 22nd among 26 NFL teams, surrendering 4.23 YPA on the ground.
 
But here's the secret to the success of the Steel Curtain: It was always good against the pass. In fact, "good against the pass" does not do the Steel Curtain justice. The best way to put it is like this: 
 
No defense in history punished and brutalized and humiliated opposing passers year after year the way the Steel Curtain did in the 1970s.
 
Defensive Passer Rating, one of our Quality Stats, provides all the proof you need.
 
The 1973 Steelers, for example, featured the greatest shutdown pass defense of the Super Bowl Era, allowing quarterbacks that year a combined 33.1 passer rating.
 
How good is that? Consider that if every pass their opponents threw that year fell incomplete, they would have had a Defensive Passer Rating of 39.6.
 
The Steel Curtain was just getting warmed up in 1973: All five Pittsburgh defenses from 1973 to 1977 – a period which includes the franchise's first two championships – rank among the 20 best pass defenses of the Super Bowl Era.
 
The 1972 Steelers, meanwhile, the first team of the Steel Curtain dynasty, narrowly missed the Top 25, with a 47.0 Defensive Passer Rating. The Super Bowl champion 1978 and 1979 Steelers boasted Defensive Passer Ratings of 51.8 and 53.3, respectively. Those two teams led the AFC in Defensive Passer Rating each season and probably would have made our Top 25 list, if not for the rule changes before the 1978 season that launched the Live Ball Era and led to inflated passer ratings (more on Live Ball Era Defensive Passer Rating soon).
 
The numbers are awe-inspiring: from the dawn of the Pittsburgh dynasty in 1972 (the year of the franchise's first postseason victory) through its last title of the era in 1979, the cumulative Defensive Passer Rating of the Steel Curtain was about 45.0. You could argue that this is the most amazing statistical team accomplishment in NFL history.
 
The end of the Steel Curtain dynasty, meanwhile, coincided directly with a dramatic drop-off in the team's ability to play pass defense. The 9-7 Steelers of 1980 fielded a unit with a humble 67.7 Defensive Passer Rating. It was the team's worst performance against the pass since the 1-13 campaign in Chuck Noll's debut season of 1969 (75.0 Defensive Passer Rating).
 
Size up the Steel Curtain here:
 
25 Best Pass Defenses of Super Bowl Era (by Defensive Passer Rating)
 
Team
Record
DPR
Team Result
1
1973 Steelers
10-4
33.1
Lost div. playoff
2
1975 Raiders
11-3
37.2
Lost AFC title game
3
1977 Falcons
7-7
37.4
Missed playoffs
4
1970 Vikings
12-2
40.4
Lost div. playoff
5
1988 Vikings
11-5
41.2
Lost div. playoff
6
1967 Packers
9-4-1
41.5
Won SB II
7t
1969 Chiefs*
11-3
42.1
Won SB IV
7t
1969 Vikings
12-2
42.1
Lost SB IV
9
1976 Redskins
10-4
42.6
Lost div. playoff
10
1967 Bears
7-6-1
42.7
Missed playoffs
11
1975 Steelers
12-2
42.8
Won SB X
12
1976 Lions
6-8
43.7
Missed playoffs
13
1977 Steelers
9-5
43.8
Lost div. playoff
14
1971 Colts
10-4
44.2
Lost AFC title game
15
1974 Steelers
10-3-1
44.3
Won SB IX
16
1973 Falcons
9-5
44.8
Missed playoffs
17
1982 Dolphins
7-2
44.9
Lost SB XVII
18
1971 Redskins
9-4-1
45.1
Lost div. playoff
19
1976 Steelers
10-4
45.2
Lost AFC title game
20t
1969 Raiders*
12-1-1
45.4
Lost AFL title game
20t
1977 Colts
10-4
45.4
Lost div. playoff
22
1976 Rams
10-3-1
45.6
Lost NFC title game
23
1971 Vikings
11-3
45.7
Lost div. playoff
24
1970 Chiefs
7-5-2
45.8
Missed playoffs
25
1966 Packers
12-2
46.1
Won SB I
* AFL
 
***
 
Passer rating in general has a lot of critics, because it's so mysterious and unwieldy. However, as our studies of the passing game – from the point of view of the offense – have shown over the years, passer rating has an incredibly high correlation to success. Teams with high passer ratings are almost always good teams. Defensive Passer Rating provides further validation of the importance of the passer-rating metric.
 
Here are some other findings we've gleaned from this list of best pass defenses in history.
 
Teams with great pass defenses are great teams
The success of the teams with great pass defenses on the list above is impossible to dispute:
  • 23 of the 25 top pass defenses had winning records
  • 20 of the 25 top pass defenses reached the playoffs.
  • 7 of the 25 top pass defenses reached the Super Bowl
  • 5 of the 25 top pass defenses won the Super Bowl
Compare that rate of success to the rate of success – or lack of success – of the teams with the best run defenses in history. The 2000 Chargers, for example, were one of the best teams in history at stopping the run. The 2000 Chargers went 1-15 and were one of the worst teams in history, period. There are no dogs like that on the list of greatest pass defenses.
 
Confirmation of the Dead Ball Era
The Dead Ball Era is well documented by the Cold, Hard Football Facts. The evidence of it is fairly overwhelming here, too, in which all but two of the top pass defenses played in the Dead Ball Era of 1966 to 1977.
 
The only Live Ball Era interlopers are the 1988 Vikings and 1982 Dolphins. You could make a very legitimate argument that the 1988 Vikings fielded the greatest pass defense in history, considering that their 41.2 Defensive Passer Rating was far below the average (72.9) of the pass-happy era in which they played.
 
We'll publish soon a list of the greatest pass defenses of the Live Ball Era (1978-present) to provide a better apples-to-apples comparison by which to judge teams that play in the modern era.
 
The futility of the Vikings
The Bills and Vikings are both famous four-Super Bowl losers.
 
But the difference between the two teams is dramatic. The Bills were merely the best the AFC could send to the Super Bowl, serving as cannon fodder during a period in which the NFC was dominant. The Bills had some good teams, but none that were historically dominant by any measure. Quite frankly, they're some of the weakest teams that have ever reached the Super Bowl. So their four crushing defeats are no surprise.
 
The Vikings of the late 1960s and 1970s, however, fielded some of the most dominant teams that ever played the game ... yet they still couldn't win a title.
 
Defensive Passer Rating merely adds more statistical fuel to the fiery mystery (and to the misery in Minnesota). From 1969 to 1971, the Vikings were as good a pass defense as we've ever seen outside the Steel Curtain, with all three of those teams found here on our list of Top 25 pass defenses.
 
Instead of being known as great champions, however, they're known as great failures, with four Super Bowl defeats between 1969 and 1976.
 
At least the 1969 Vikings – who we named one of the greatest teams not win a Super Bowl – had an excuse: they met their statistical match in the Chiefs in Super Bowl IV. Both teams boasted 42.1 Defensive Passer Ratings, tied for seventh best in the Super Bowl Era.
 
The edge should have gone to the Vikings, however. As you'll see in a future story that debunks another prevalent myth, NFL teams consistently passed the ball more effectively than their AFL counterparts – despite the reputation the AFL had for offering a wide-open style of play. But more on that later.
 
The anomalous Falcons
The 1977 Falcons are the shining symbol of the Dead Ball Era. As we've chronicled in the past, they fielded the stingiest defense in modern NFL history (9.2 PPG). And here we find that their record-setting defense was paced by one of the best pass defending units in history: The 1977 Falcons rank No. 3 all time in Defensive Passer Rating (37.4), during a season in which they surrendered just nine TD passes and hauled in 26 INTs.
 
But with a mere 7-7 record, they seem to refute the contention of the Cold, Hard Football Facts that passer rating is a hugely telling indicator of success.
 
The truth, however, is that the exception of the 1977 Falcons merely prove the rule.
 
The problem with the 1977 Falcons, as you might suspect, was a passing offense nearly as inept as its passing defense was solid. The Falcons offense scored just 12.8 PPG, while their rotating collection of six quarterbacks (June Jones among the QBs who had a cup of coffee with the team that year) produced a passer rating of just 52.3, with a total of eight TD tosses all season.
 
The 1967 Bears are another exception that proves the rule. They rank 10th all time in Defensive Passer Rating (42.7), but they went just 7-6-1.
 
The problem, of course, is that the Bears offense passed about as effectively as your 88-year-old grandmother passes on the highway, with a 52.0 passer rating. (The decades-long ineffectiveness of the Bears passing game remains one of the more curious phenomena in NFL history.)
 
The 1967 Bears prove that you can have a Hall of Famer on the sidelines (George Halas), a Hall of Famer anchoring the defense (Dick Butkus) and a Hall of Famer lugging the leather (Gale Sayers).
 
But none of it matters if you can't pass the ball effectively.
 
Marino's great defense
The Cult of Dan has spent 25 years telling us that former Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino was a tragic hero – a victim of lousy teammates who repeatedly torpedoed what should have been a string of Super Bowl victories for Their Hero.
 
One of the first things we did back when we created Cold, Hard Football Facts in 2004 was to smash these myths perpetuated by the Cult of Dan. As we noted back then, Marino joined an incredibly talented team when he came to Miami in 1983 – the defending AFC champions, no less. In fact, in his rookie season, the Dolphins fielded the league's top-ranked scoring defense (a feat they repeated later in Marino's career ... yet both times failed to win Super Bowls).
 
In any case, further evidence of the power of the Miami defense back in that era is found here: the 1982 Dolphins join the 1988 Vikings as the only Live Ball Era teams to make the Top 25 Defensive Passer Rating list.

It's something of an anomaly, because it came in the strike-shortened, nine-game 1982 season. But it does provide further evidence that Marino joined one of the most talented teams in football when he came to the Dolphins in 1983.
 
His failure to win a Super Bowl, as we noted many times, had more to do with his own postseason performances than they did with a lack of talent around him. 
 
Don't forget Lombardi's Packers
The success of the Packers, as we've noted many times, was largely due to the success of its passing game. Bart Starr, the subject of a recent Cold, Hard Football Facts interview, was the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
 
But it takes more than the greatest quarterback in history to make one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history. It also takes a shut-down pass defense.
 
You'll notice that Green Bay's Super Bowl teams of 1966 and 1967 earn spots on the list above of the greatest pass defenses of the Super Bowl Era (No. 25 and No. 6, respectively).
 
Inquiring minds might want to know how the team's pre-Super Bowl champions of 1961, 1962 and 1965 stack up.
 
They stack up quite well, of course.
 
The 1961 Packers posted a Defensive Passer Rating of 53.7, second best in the NFL that year. The only team better was the Eastern Conference champion Giants who the Packers beat in the title game that year.
 
The 1962 Packers, easily the most dominant team of the Lombardi Dynasty, led the league with a 43.3 Defensive Passer Rating.
 
The 1965 Packers also led the league in Defensive Passer Rating, with a mark of 48.2, far and away the best in the league that year (the Redskins were second, with a 57.9 DPR).
 
Call us crazy, folks, but this looks like a trend.





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