The magic stat theory

Looking for a magic stat theory? The one indicator that will lead you to the pigskin promised land here in the playoffs. The one indicator that will tell you who's going to win the Super Bowl? The one indicator that will tell you why President Kennedy and Governor Connally were riddled with more bullet holes than the Victims of the St. Valentine's Day Massacre?

 

Well, there ain't any ... at least not this year.

 

In past seasons, our Defensive Hog Index was a brilliant indicator of postseason success, accurately identifying 20 of 22 playoff winners over the past two years. Not so much this year: it's accurately identified just four of 10 playoff winners heading into the Super Bowl.

 

However, it's not alone this year among struggling stats. We looked at each playoff game so far this year through the prism of 20 different statistical indicators: seven Quality Stats, the average ranking in those seven Quality Stats, and 12 traditional stats, such as scoring offense and defense, total offense and defense and various run and pass indicators on both sides of the ball.

 

No surprise that our Quality Stats stand above the crowd: our Bendability and Scoreability Indexes (our measures of defensive and offensive efficiency, respectively) have each identified seven of 10 winners so far this year. No other indicator was right in more than six games.

 

This year's list of indicators also provides a very interesting sign (potentially) of the times: defense does NOT win championships. At least not this year.

 

The bottom of the list (i.e., the worst indicators) is dominated by defensive stats, including what most of us normally think is the most important stat of all: scoring defense. Believe it or not, our Bendability Index is the only defensive indicator on the list that has accurately identified more than half the winners here in the 2009 postseason.

 

Category	Record
Bendability	7-3
Scoreability	7-3
Average in Quality Stats	6-4
Scoring Offense	6-4
Total Offense (YPG)	6-4
Rushing YPG	6-4
Rushing YPA	6-4
Defensive Passer Rating	5-5
Passer Rating Differential	5-5
Total Defense (YPG)	5-5
Passing YPG	5-5
Passing YPA*	5-5
Passing Defense YPA	5-5
Rushing Defense YPA	5-5
Offensive Hog Index	4-5^
Defensive Hog Index	4-6
CHFF Passing YPA**	4-6
Passing Defense YPG	4-6
Rushing Defense YPG	4-6
Scoring Defense	4-6

 

* traditional passing yards per attempt

* CHFF's Passing YPA, which adjusts for sacks

^ The Ravens and Patriots, who played in the wildcard round, were tied in OHI this year