The Iciest Issues in training camp: AFC edition

The Icy Issue: Is Joe Flacco the franchise?

The Icier Answer: We'll find out soon enough.

 

The standards of quarterbacking for the Ravens are so low that even a pedestrian season from a rookie signal caller sends a titillating breeze up the bloomers of Baltimore fans.

 

Surely, in a league that is extraordinarily cruel to rookie quarterbacks, Flacco had a strong debut season ... but hardly spectacular. Here's his line from 2008:

But Flacco won, and that's really all that's important: after a tough 1-3 start, the Ravens went 11-2 in their next 13 games before bowing to the Steelers in the AFC title tilt. That's a great run and a great rookie season – no matter what the numbers say.

 

But don't order the bronze bust just yet. We'll see this year if Flacco is more than a flicker in the pan and if he has what it takes to carry the offensively dysfunctional franchise to the next level. Sooner or later, the Ravens need to find that guy – and sometime by November we'll have a good idea if that guy is Flacco.

 

The Icy Issue: Will T.O. lift the Bills for one season before shooting his way out of town?

The Icier Answer: Of course he will. He's T.O.

 

The Bills are so hungry for help on offense that we swear they brought food stamps to the draft ... all part of Obama's offensive stimulus plan, apparently. The team last finished in the top 10 in each major offensive category (points and yards) back when our main man Doug Flutie was taking snaps in 1998.

 

They made the ultimate short-term desperation move bringing in Terrell Owens this off-season, who not only brings a proven track record to satisfy Buffalo's hunger for offense, he even brings his own breakfast cereal. The instant injection of production that T.O. provides in each new town is undeniable. But it never lasts long.

 

In 2004, his first year in Philly, he set a franchise record with 14 TD catches and the team set a franchise record with 13 victories.

 

In 2006, his first year in Dallas, he caught 13 TD passes and then in 2007 set a franchise record with 15 TD receptions, while the team matched a franchise-best with 13 victories – T.O. easily outpaced the production of "playmaker" Michael Irvin in his best seasons with the Cowboys.

 

Even back in his San Francisco days, T.O.'s production leaps off the stat sheet: he's second only to Jerry Rice in 49ers franchise history in every major receiving category, including catches (592), yards (8,572) and TDs (81).

 

The problem, of course, is that he shot his way out of each and every town. Trent Edwards – like Donovan McNabb and Tony Romo before him – could have a career year paired with T.O. And he definitely needs some help. But that full, satisfying feeling won't last long. So enjoy it in 2009, Bills fans.

 

Then the organization must consider a more long-term plan for success.

 

Icy Issue: Can the Bengals keep the momentum going?

Icier Answer: Don't make us laugh. It interrupts our drinking.

 

Here's a little quiz for you: Who had the best record over the second half of the 2008 season, the perpetually pathetic Bungles, or the NFC champion Cardinals?

If you said the perpetually pathetic Bungles, you win!

 

After an abysmal 0-8 first half of the year – bad even by Bungles standards – Cincy stabilized the ship in the second half of the year, with a 4-3-1 mark.

 

Sure, the losses were one-sided defeats at the hands of AFC powers Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indy (combined 96-16 score), but Cincy did manage a 13-13 tie against NFC title-game contender Philly, and closed the season with wins over Washington, Cleveland and Kansas City. The strong finish (it's all relative, folks) saved Marv Lewis's job.

 

But Lewis certainly lives a charmed life – when a pathetic 4-11-1 season saves your job, somebody up in the big cushy leather chair must like you. Lewis has enjoyed just one winning season in his six years at the helm, and that was way back in 2005. Hell, Al Davis would have already fired him and rehired by now.

 

The win total has declined each year since that 2005 season. Barring a dramatic change of fortunes, even Mike Brown will have to admit that 2009 is the end of the line for Lewis. And based on the track record, there's little reason to believe that the "momentum" of 2008 will yield job-saving results in 2009.

 

CLEVELAND 

Icy Issue: Can ManGenius handle the heat?
Icier Answer: Success in Cleveland depends on it.

 

New head coach Eric Mangini arrives in Cleveland with a full-blown quarterback controversy: Will it be former sixth-found draft pick Derek Anderson, who's shown flashes of competence (2007 Pro Bowl appearance), or former first-round pick Brady Quinn, who's shown flashes of his six-pack abs ... but little else (97 pass attempts in two seasons).

 

Mangini also inherits a team with an unruly, frustrated mob of a fan base still waiting for its first Super Bowl appearance. You know the math:

 

 

Reports in the Cleveland media have indicated that there will be not QB carousel this year: Mangini will make a decision about his No. 1 in training camp and then stick with that guy throughout the season.

 

He just needs to pick the right guy. If he doesn't, Mangini's time in Cleveland will go no more smoothly than his time in New York.

 

Icy Issue: Will the Broncos win the Cutler-for-Orton trade?

Icier Answer: Yes ... if they improve the defense.

 

Jay Cutler had a big gun and put up big numbers last year – 4,526 passing yards most notably.

 

But at the end of the day, something just didn't click – as evidenced by the fact that the Broncos racked up all kinds of yards, but routinely failed to put the ball in the end zone. We discussed this in great detail earlier in the year.

 

Kyle Orton was the polar opposite during his three years in Chicago – the numbers were not big, but he was very efficient and the Bears were routinely among the most efficient scoring machines in football. In fact they were No. 1 last year in our Scoreability Index.

 

But the Bears also fielded a defense of playmaking gamebreakers. The Broncos last year fielded a defense of game-killing busts – among the worst in the league in every major defensive category, including scoring defense (30th) and total defense (29th).

 

If the Broncos can make big strides in improving that defense, they may find the game-manager type in Orton is a perfect match. If they don't make those strides, none of it matters.

 

Icy Issue: If an expansion team is placed in one of the nation's largest cities, does it make a sound?
Icier Answer: Apparently not.

 

The Texans are the Navy SEALS of the NFL, an organization that treads water without making a sound. An expansion team in 2002, it struggled badly for years before apparently reaching a plateau here with consecutive 8-8 seasons.

 

Our own Chief Troll discussed all the problems with the team earlier this year in this interview with "Texans Chick" blogger Stephanie Stradley: the problems are a poor pass defense and the failure of a seemingly talented crew of highly touted young defenders to live up to the hype or the potential.

 

The Texans went heavy into defense this year in the draft, and they had do it. If those picks pan out, then maybe Houston could finally win nine games. Otherwise, expect the Titans to continue to move silently through the AFC South like a football frogman -- minus the underwater demolition skills or ability to kill you with a spoon -- barely making a peep in the wider NFL.

 

Icy Issue: Can the Colts persevere in the wake of the Tony Dungy Era, or will the ship get swamped?

Icier Answer: The Colts will persevere.

 

The basic storyline is that these are the new-look Colts: new head coach Jim Caldwell. New titles for many of the assistants. No Marvin Harrison.

 

But they still have Peyton Manning ... while Caldwell has long been Manning's sideline-stalking binky, working directly with Manning and the quarterbacks since arriving as an assistant with Tony Dungy in 2002.

 

The Manning Era Colts underwent a more major shock to the system back in 2002, when Dungy replaced Jim Mora, who had enjoyed some success – including seasons of 10-6 and 13-3.

 

But the Goodship Peyton merely picked up steam under Dungy, winning 10 games in 2003 and at least 12 games in the six season since – one of the more remarkable team streaks in pro football history.

 

Dungy's departure hardly represents the same changes of system that Mora's departure represented several years ago. Caldwell has been one of Dungy's most loyal consiglieris since their days in Tampa.

 

Caldwell also insists that the shake-up elsewhere among the assistants – most notably new roles for Tom Moore and Howard Mudd – are merely titular.

 

"They are both returning, doing the same jobs they've been doing over the years," Caldwell said, in an IndyStar report over the weekend.

 

It sounds like a bit of smoke and mirrors. If there's no change, why is there change? But regardless, at the end of the day the new Colts should look quite a bit like the old Colts – most notably because they still have the same legend taking the snaps. And that's bad news for the rest of the AFC.

  

Icy Issue: Will the Jags ever succeed at smashmouth football?

Icier Answer: Not until they acquire a franchise quarterback and learn to play pass defense.

 

Jack Del Rio has essentially attempted to recreate Pittsburgh Lite in Jacksonville – with much lighter success.

 

His teams typically ran the ball more often than they passed it – rare in this day and age – and he attempted to build a big, beefy defensive front that stifled opposing ground games. Both of those efforts sound a lot like the Steelers of recent, Super Bowl-winning vintage.

 

It's all well and good. But as all Cold, Hard Football Facts readers know, running the ball effectively and stopping the run on defense simply do not help you win ball games if you don't also succeed in the passing game.

Del Rio never got the memo. His team did abandon the run last year – passing it more than they ran it for the first time in years – but with disastrous results.

 

Quarterback David Garrard attempted 535 passes and posted a perfectly mediocre 81.7 passer rating – and he found the end zone just 15 times in all those attempts. A very poor rate of end zone success.

 

Defensively, meanwhile, the Jaguars were virtually incapable of stopping the pass. They surrendered 25 TD passes – the same number as the Lions, who fielded the worst pass defense in pro football history – and they finished a mere 28th in Defensive Passer Rating.

 

It added up to a disaster season – an 11-5 playoff contender in 2007 turned into a 5-11 pretender in 2008.

 

The Steelers – the team that Del Rio has attempted to emulate – have achieved success playing smashmouth football. But they've achieved this success only after they found a play-making franchise quarterback who boasts one of the best averages per attempt in pro football history. The Steelers also fielded one of the best pass defenses in modern history last year. It added up to Super Bowl success.

 

The smashmouth style of football certainly roils the blood of most hardcore football fans and makes for great headlines. But this style of football simply does not lead to victories in the NFL if you haven't mastered the passing game.

 

The Steelers understand this. Del Rio's Jaguars do not.

 

Icy Issue: Can Scott Pioli, Todd Haley and Matt Cassel inject new life in the moribund Kansas City offense and turn around the organization?

Icier Answer: Perhaps ... but all three still have a lot to prove.

 

Of course, "new life" is a relative term. The truth is that former head coach Herm Edwards completely eviscerated the once mighty Kansas City offense – highlighted in great detail by the Cold, Hard Football Facts over the years – and generally disemboweled the entire organization.

 

For example, if the Kansas City offense chokes on its own vomit this season, we would consider it a sign of new life compared with the living-dead units that Edwards put on the field.

 

It's going to take some time before the offense can be rebuilt. Plus, the trio who will lead the effort still has a lot to prove.

 

New general manager Pioli was seen as a talent master during his days in New England. But he also benefitted from a coach, Bill Belichick, famed for turning discarded lemons into Hall of Fame-tasting lemonade.

 

Haley has lived something of a charmed life as an offensive assistant. He was the passing game coordinator with the Cowboys from 2004 to 2006 – but that passing game did little until Terrell Owens arrived on the scene in 2006. And T.O., despite his antics, makes everyone around him look like a passing-game genius. And in Haley's two years as offensive coordinator in Arizona, he benefitted from a quarterback who's among the most prolific in the history of the game, not to mention a slew of incredibly talented wideouts. He has none of those assets in Kansas City.

 

Cassel, meanwhile, had a tremendous debut season last year with New England. But he, too, benefitted from a cast of great talent around him – Randy Moss and Wes Welker most notably – while playing for that famous lemonade-making head coach. And lest we forget, as well as he played, the offense of the 2008 Patriots under Cassel (410 points) was a mere shadow of the 2007 Patriots under Tom Brady (589 points).

 

We'll give all three the benefit of the doubt for now.

 

Icy Issue: What will the Dolphins do for an encore? 

Icier Answer: We got no answer for ya ... yet.

 

The Dolphins made the biggest splash in the NFL last year, giving us four of the biggest stories of 2008.

 

No. 1 – The Dolphins rose from 1-15 dud in 2007 to 11-5 division champ in 2008.

 

No. 2 – Two-time comeback player of the year Chad Pennington gave an MVP performance, orchestrating the greatest statistical rise in the entire NFL last year.

 

No. 3 – The Dolphins crushed the Patriots, 38-13, in Week 3, ending the longest win streak in pro football history (21 games).

 

No. 4 – In the process of squashing the Patriots, the Dolphins unleashed the college-style spread option, dubbed the "wildcat" in NFL vernacular, that quickly became all the rage in NFL offenses and that we're likely to see much more of here in 2009. (That's good news. The boring copy-cat offenses of the NFL could use an injection of college-style innovation.)

 

It's tough to follow up that act. And it's hard to see the Dolphins doing it again.

 

The 11-5 Dolphins narrowly edged out the once-dominant 11-5 Patriots for the division title via tiebreakers. That Week 3 win made all the difference in the world. The Dolphins were hardly dominant by any measure – yes, they went 10-5 in their other 15 games, but outscored their opponents by just three points. The Patriots went 11-4 in their other 15 games, and outscored them by 126 points.

 

The Patriots also re-exerted themselves later in the season, dominating the Week 12 rematch, 48-28.

 

It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Dolphins can recreate the breathtaking storylines of 2008. But the organization has definitely put itself on more solid footing.

 

Now we'll see if they have what it takes to challenge the Tom Brady-led Patriots for the division title.

 

NEW ENGLAND
Icy Issue: Can Bill Belichick recapture the defensive magic? 

Icier Answer: The continuation of New England's dynasty depends on it.

 

The formula in New England during the Tom Brady Era (2001-present) is simple: when the defense plays well, the Patriots play for Super Bowls. When the defense struggles, the Patriots don't play for Super Bowls.

 

The magic number is 300 points. The Patriots surrendered fewer than 300 points in 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007 – they played in the AFC title game all five years and in the Super Bowl in four of those years. Only a miracle Colts comeback prevented the Patriots from a perfect five for five when their defense is solid.

 

The Patriots surrendered more than 300 points in 2002, 2005 and 2008 – they missed the playoffs in two of those three years and won just a single wildcard playoff game in 2005.

 

Belichick sees the correlation, too. He's made an all-out assault on improving his defense, specifically his pathetic pass defense of 2008. Between the draft and free agency, New England's defensive backfield will be completely unrecognizable from the punchless unit the team fielded last year. The offense under Brady, meanwhile, will almost certainly be Super Bowl caliber. So the success of his defensive remodeling job will be the difference between a good season for New England and a Super Bowl season for New England.

 

Icy Issue: Is Mark Sanchez a big-armed gunslinger who will become the next Joe Namath?
Icier Answer: Let's hope not. Let's hope he's actually a good quarterback.

 

You gotta admire the curious yet energetic creature that is the Jets fan. They certainly wear their hearts on their sleeves – perhaps using it as a hanky to wipe off the drool.

 

And this passion is never more evident than it is on draft day in Manhattan.

 

Jets fans certainly expressed their pleasure when the Jets nabbed former USC quarterback Sanchez with their first pick (fifth overall) of the 2009 draft, erupting into thunderous applause. Apparently they believe Sanchez is the second coming of Joe Namath.

 

They better hope not. Namath, of course, was a good quarterback in his best years, but generally speaking the most overrated quarterback in the history of the game: a big-armed but mistake-prone gunslinger who cost the Jets as many games as he won.

 

The Jets can't afford that style of play in the modern NFL. Hell, they saw last year what happens when a big-armed but mistake-prone gunslinger runs the offense. Brett Favre tossed a league-leading 22 picks last year – and at the end of the day, all those mistakes were the difference between challenging for the AFC East title and ending the season at 9-7.

 

Of course, both Namath and Favre stumbled into a pile of Super Bowl gold that solidified their legacies as NFL legends. Maybe long-suffering Jets fans would settle for the same out of Sanchez.

 

Icy Issue: When will the misery end?

Icier Answer: When Al Davis finally calls it quits.

 

We've been over it several times and don't even want to get into it again: the problems in Oakland start at the top. And if you look at the top, you find Al Davis.  

 

As we've discussed before, Davis is one of the legends of the game. And, in his day, he was a great coaching leader and innovator and one of the best executives in the game. But the sun set on his day in Super Bowl XXXVII, as we chronicled so eloquently a couple weeks ago.

 

Since then, his reign has been defined by erratic personnel decisions, poor drafts, public battles with his coaches, incoherent press conferences, and a belief that the game his teams executed in the 1960s, 70s and 80s still works in today's football.

 

It does not.

 

Icy Issue: Can the Steelers resurrect their once-proud offensive line?

Icier Answer: Sure they can. And they better.

 

If the Steelers had a weak link last year – well, let's put it another: the Steelers DID have a weak link last year, and it was the offensive line.  

 

The Steelers ranked 14th on our Offensive Hog Index in 2007, not to mention seventh when it came time to run the football (4.24 YPA) and

 

This unit fell off the face of the earth in 2008 – falling to 28th and 29th (3.68 YPA), respectively.

 

We knew guard Alan Faneca was perhaps the best in the game, but it's hard to believe his departure last year would have made so dramatic a difference. But it did.

 

The Steelers were good last year. Obviously. They were the champs. But they were certainly beatable. Hell, they needed a miracle defensive touchdown and some last-second offensive heroics to pull out a victory over the 9-7 Cardinals in the Super Bowl.

  

If they want to repeat, and if they want to hold off the reconfigured, Tom Brady-led Patriots, not to mention Peyton Manning and the rest of the sharks circling in the bloody waters of the AFC, they'll need to improve the offensive line in every way – run blocking and pass blocking.

 

Big Ben can only pull so many rabbits out of his hat before the beatings he suffers start to take their toll on him and on the franchise's ability to compete for championships.

 

Icy Issue: Has a bad chef kept the Chargers from reaching the Super Bowl?

Icier Answer: Ahh, that'd be no. The problems are players who spend too much time reading their regular-season press clippings and management that's too clueless to realize it.

 

You may have heard, but San Diego star defensive back Antonio Cromartie recently "tweeted" that "nasty" food at training camp may be the reason why the Chargers can't reach the Super Bowl. He wrote:

 

 

Seems like a joke, or at the very least a harmless little comment about the drudgeries of training camp. But the team fined him $2,500 and it's caused something of a shit storm in San Diego. The team is using Twitter "as a promotional tool" according to various reports. But an organization that doesn't realize that giving its players an uncensored forum with the rest of the world is not a very bright organization.

 

The Twitter post also picks at the great institutional scab in San Diego: the organization's tradition of fielding great teams that can't get it done in the playoffs. From John Hadl's Chargers to Dan Fouts' Chargers and now to Philip Rivers' Chargers, San Diego routinely fields these teams that generate a lot of offensive fireworks and the press clippings that inevitably follow ... but little else. This current crop, meanwhile, as we've noted several times over the past couple years, seems to have a particularly inflated sense of self worth that's not matched by the actual accomplishments.

 

We'd suggest a little more discipline from the top on down ... a little less arrogance from their players ... and maybe a better chef.

 

Icy Issue: Will Vince Young ever pull his shit together in Tennessee?

Icier Answer: Anything is possible in the Not For Long League ... just ask Young himself.

 

Hard to believe Vince Young was NFL offensive rookie of the year in 2006. He even led the Titans to a 10-6 record and a playoff appearance in 2007.

 

And then the wheels fell off the Vince Young wagon train in Week 1 of the 2008 season: he played poorly, he was booed by fans, he got injured – and then he mysteriously disappeared amid a sea of rumors. His desire to play pro football again has even been questioned.

 

To top it all off, his replacement, Old Warhorse Kerry Collins, played fairly effectively while guiding the Titans to a 13-3 record. Collins was rewarded with a two-year deal in the off-season and has already been pegged the No. 1 man here in 2009.

 

Hey, there's a reason why they call it the Not For Long League.

 

But there's also reason to suspect that Young will get another shot. Collins was effective last year ... but he was hardly spectacular, save for a handful of gutty performances, such as his three second-half TD passes in a 24-14 come-from-behind win over the Jaguars. But he threw just 12 TDs all season and posted a pedestrian 80.2 passer rating.

 

With DT Albert Haynesworth gone to Washington, too, it seems unlikely that the Titans will field the same lights-out defense they boasted for much of the 2008 season and that largely called a workmanlike offense.

 

So at some point, Collins may be called upon to carry a heavier load. And if he can't ... Vince Young may soon be back under center in the Not For Long League.