The Curious Case of the New England defense
Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 30, 2012
By Scott Kacsmar
Cold, Hard Football Facts Analyst at large
"I can’t tell the difference anymore between defense that’s good and defense that’s awful. I just know they’re close."
Heavily criticized all season long, the defense of the New England Patriots is in the Super Bowl, putting them just one win away from being crowned champions. It took a defended pass in the end zone by undrafted rookie Sterling Moore to prevent the team from allowing a late game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship.
Now that little play on words at the top is inspired from an episode of Mad Men, and it sums up the role defense has played in the 2011 NFL season; especially for a defense like New England. We have not seen a whole lot of defense, it comes and goes, and the line between success and failure is so thin from week to week, from play to play. What role could defense play in Super Bowl XLVI? History says a huge one, but good luck figuring out which of these defenses will get the job done.
After previously reaching four Super Bowls with Bill Belichick coaching one of the league’s elite defenses, 2011 has been a much different story for the Patriots. The only remaining defensive player from those Super Bowl teams is Vince Wilfork. We’ll get into all the comparisons with Belichick’s past Super Bowl defenses later, but let’s first recap the glaring marks the defense had this season:
There was not a single statistic attached in support of the claim the Patriots had the worst defense in the league. Through seven games, they did allow the most yards in the league, though several teams with far worse records were in the same ballpark. More importantly, there were 14 more teams that allowed more points, including the Colts who had just come off a 62-7 thrashing at the hands of New Orleans in primetime. Yet it was stated, as if to be taken purely as fact, that the Patriots had the worst defense in the league.
Were they really as bad as has been suggested, or is this just another classic case of yards being a poor indicator of success?
Long-time readers already know where we’re headed with this one, but kick back, and read along for the in-depth statistical nuggetry and success of New England’s bend-but-don’t-break defense.
How about the passing yards allowed? Don’t scroll down too far on that list of the most ever, and you’ll see this season’s New Orleans Saints (30th in 2011) and New York Giants (29th) rank right below the Packers and Patriots. What about the defensive passer rating? New England’s mark of 86.1 ranked 20th in the league. So once again you can find many teams doing worse season after season.
This is more than just some New England problem. It was a league problem in what was one unique season from a statistical standpoint.
For what stands out historically is the 2011 season as a whole, as it truly was defined by the passing onslaught. Part of this is from the lockout hamstringing defenses early on, and also the new rules on kickoffs dramatically changing field position, allowing for longer fields, and more yards to conquer.
Using this season’s Detroit Lions (5,881 yards allowed) as a cutoff point, there have been 71 teams to allow at least 5,880 yards in a season. Ten of them were from 2011 alone. Seven more were from 2010, while no other season had more than five teams at once.
Of those 71 teams, seven of them won at least 10 games. That includes four teams from 2011: Green Bay (15-1), New England (13-3), New Orleans (13-3) and Detroit (10-6). The Giants just missed the cut at 9-7, and make up one of the ten teams to have a winning record.
As it relates to yardage, things clearly were on a different level historically in 2011, as winning games in spite of allowing big yardage was never more prevalent. It remains to be seen how much this trend will continue, but there is one thing we always know about yards.
In 2011, the average team scored 22.2 PPG, which means the average team allowed 22.2 PPG. The Patriots allowed 21.4 PPG, making them just above average, which supports their ranking of 15th in points allowed. Using a simple rating system to adjust for opponent, their defense grades out at -0.1, which further validates that they essentially played right to their level of competition on defense in 2011 when it came to points.
They weren’t stingy at all with giving up yards, but they made teams work extra hard for points. The Patriots ranked second in Cold, Hard Football Facts’Bendability this season. They allowed one point for every 19.23 yards. They also ranked second in Bendability the last time they won a Super Bowl (2004), and had a similar number (19.12). The 2007 defense was ranked 6th (16.84).
If this was any other team, the defense would likely get less attention. But when your head coach is Bill Belichick, who’s built his legacy on great defenses, then you have a story when your defense has these kinds of statistics.
As you’ll soon see, it’s not what New England fans have come to expect.
Yards and net yards were both tracked. The difference with net yards is that penalties count, either for or against the Patriots. The gross yards may differ from actual yards allowed due to the way fumble recovery yardage is handled (it is not counted in the stats for passing or rushing).
Kneel down drives were excluded from the data.
Look out for the brief game recaps in red, as we will explain why the defense played well (“did their job” in Belichick terms) in all 13 regular season wins this season. Both playoff games went just fine as well.
Where to start?
Those are your general drive stats, but we have broken things down into numerous splits for better context. The 2001 Patriots and 2011 Patriots have some similar drive stats, but the teams featured much different offenses and defenses, making the way these stats were reached much different.
The percentage of Stop Yds in 2011 were a far cry from where the Patriots were in their golden years of winning championships, but the totals were very similar.
These numbers can be adjusted however. There’s always been a thought that the teams in 2001 and 2003 had more luck than usual riding on their side, and one way that is proven statistically is the number of failed field goal attempts against the Patriots.
A field goal, either missed or blocked, is not so much a defensive stop as it is a special teams failure (or success if the Patriots were to block the kick). It just so happens the 2001-03 Patriots were far more fortunate at having opposing kickers fail to convert their chances than the more recent teams. We took the yardage involved on the failed field goal drives and subtracted them from the Stop Yds for the defense.
After having 11 and 10 failed field goals those first two seasons, the Patriots have had 8 combined in the last three Super Bowl seasons. You can see the amount of yardage wasted by the opponent on these drives, and it does bring the percentage of Stop Yds closer together (especially 2001 vs. 2011). It also makes the 2004 defense stand out more, and from the general table, we know the 2004 defense also dealt with worse starting field position.
We’ve talked about the Patriots’ success with Bendability, or making their opponent work hard for every point. A perfect example came to start the season.
Week 1 at Miami – After a strong 84-yard touchdown drive to start the game, Miami was unproductive the rest of the half and trailed 14-7. It would take a Tom Brady interception returned to the NE 9 in the third quarter for Miami to get back on the board with a tying touchdown on the short field. It was the shortest touchdown drive the Patriots allowed all season (9 yards).
Later, Miami had a 1st and goal at the NE 1, but were forced to settle for a field goal. The drive was 87 yards, but the Patriots held at the goal line. In the fourth quarter, Miami would start with 2 three and outs, followed by a 76-yard drive down to the NE 1. They went for it on fourth down and failed. One play later, Brady had a 99-yard touchdown to Wes Welker, and the Patriots led 38-17 with 5:44 left. Game was essentially over at this point. Chad Henne got a 74-yard touchdown drive, but then threw an interception on the game’s final play after another long drive (63 yards) failed.
The Dolphins had 488 yards, but only 24 points. 46% of their yardage gained that night produced 0 points on the scoreboard. That is not productive offense, and the failures in the red zone, caused by the New England defense, contributed to the loss as much as anything. Henne finishes with a flashy 416-yard performance, but how productive was it?
Week 4 at Oakland - the Raiders had an even worse performance against the Patriots. Sure, they finished with 504 yards of offense, but scored just 19 points, with the final touchdown coming on a 99-yard drive that started with 1:16 left, and Oakland trailing 31-13. Good for Oakland’s stats, good for fantasy football, but not helpful one bit when it comes to winning the game.
These two games against Miami and Oakland were the most yards the Patriots allowed all season, and yet they were two of the least productive days any offense had against the New England defense in 2011.
We looked at all of these types of stops for each year.
Again the 2011 defense is down 5-10% in terms of stopping drives (Stop%), but they put up comparable numbers at turnover rate (TO%), while not having the advantages of all the failed field goals.
The 2007 team could pad their drive stats a bit on defense by having 16 drives that ended because the clock expired on the opponent. 10 of those 16 drives were a team facing a 20+ point deficit and showing no real urgency to do anything.
Finally, the 3&OUT% is the percentage of drives that ended with a three and out. The 2011 defense did just as well as the 2004 team did in that department.
You may recall in Week 5 vs. New York Jets, they forced New York into a three and out on 7 of their first 9 drives. The Jets had a 20-yard touchdown drive that day after an 88-yard kick return. It was just one of three touchdown drives the Patriots allowed all season of 20 yards or less. It was the only game all season the Patriots didn’t register a takeaway in, but instead they allowed a season-low 255 yards and won it by being a shut-down defense.
In past years when the Patriots took the ball away, they usually did it rather quickly; surrendering an average of less than 20.0 yards/drive from 2001-07. In 2011, teams found it easier to move the ball on the defense, but ultimately, these 31 drives still ended with a takeaway and no points being allowed. Is it really that important that they still gave up over 30 yards/drive and nearly 1,000 yards in the process?
In Week 2 vs. San Diego, the Chargers came to town, and in usual San Diego/New England fashion, the Chargers came with a loaded gun that they slowly began to shoot themselves in the foot with. A 75-yard drive ended after Mike Tolbert was stuffed on 4th and goal at the NE 1. The next drive into NE territory ended with a Philip Rivers interception, as did the next drive (77 yards) into the red zone. San Diego had just 7 points through three quarters.
Finally with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter, Tolbert runs backwards and fumbles the ball. New England adds another touchdown, and San Diego never threatens again. They finish with 470 yards, but 4 big turnovers, and just 21 points.
The Patriots were 5-0 when forcing 3+ takeaways this season.
One of their finest performances was in Week 10 at New York Jets. Despite starting a makeshift lineup, the Patriots allowed just 14 points on defense, forced three turnovers, while also scoring a pick six on the night in a big victory over their AFC East rival.
The very next opponent, Week 11 vs. Kansas City, also turned the ball over three times, and the Patriots allowed just a season-low 3 points in a dominating 34-3 victory.
Margin is again the average scoring margin the defense had when taking the field and before they allowed the touchdown. The Avg. Yds is the average net yards the touchdown drive was, and the last three columns break down the distances (less than 20, less than 50, 80 and higher).
The first four Super Bowl defenses allowed a combined 28 touchdown drives of 80+ yards; the 2011 defense allowed a whopping 25.
That’s a staggering number, and you can see it in the average yards being close to 75 per touchdown. They allowed 7 touchdown drives of 90+ yards, though it should be noted that they led by 18-25 points for 4/7 of those drives.
However, it can’t be stated enough the impact the new kickoff rule has on such a stat. To give up an 80+ yard touchdown drive, you have to start at the opponent’s 20 or better, and that simply was more common this season than in past years.
As you can see, 60.6% of the drives this season by the New England defense started at the opponent’s own 20 or worse. With the old kickoff rules, it was 31.3%, so it’s almost doubled.
But you can also see from the Pts/Dr that the defense has done a worse job when starting with such great field position, as they actually give up nearly 2.0 points/drive. That’s triple what the stingy 2003 defense allowed.
The following breaks down the drives for the defense based on whether or not they had a lead, deficit or were tied when they took the field.
The 2011 team has a distribution very similar to the 2001 Patriots, as they lead just over 60% of the time, are tied around 20%, and trail just under 19%.
Amazing stat: the 2004 Patriots’ defense trailed for just 11 drives all season (6.36%), and 8 of them came in one game (the 34-20 loss at Pittsburgh). They would also trail on just one drive defensively in that postseason.
Nearly as amazing is the 2007 team leading on over 80% of the drives. The offense was potent this season too, but things weren’t anywhere near as dominant as 2007. In fact, the wild comebacks the Patriots were involved in really skew a lot of their numbers in these three categories.
How does a team go 16-0 like in 2007? Rarely play from behind, and when you do, don’t exacerbate things by giving up more points (1.00 Pts/Dr in 2007).
The 33 drives for the 2011 Patriots are an interesting mix. Eight of the drives are from the loss at Pittsburgh. Then you have 19 drives that come from a four-pack of games that saw the Patriots fall behind by multiple scores early, only to turn it on later for a few convincing victories.
Week 12 at Philadelphia – After falling behind 10-0 early and allowing Vince Young to throw for 137 yards in the first quarter, the Patriots tightened up in a hurry. They forced a pair of three and outs and an interception, and just like that they led 21-10. The Eagles converted a 78-yard drive into just a field goal, and they squandered a 78-yard drive in the third quarter after failing to convert 4th and 1 at the NE 2. Down 38-13 in the fourth quarter, Young engineered a 90-yard drive that actually gained 105 yards because of penalties. All that did was make the final score 38-20, as it was another insignificant drive. Like Henne in Week 1, Young finishes with a very unproductive 400-yard passing game.
Week 15 at Denver – The Broncos raced out to a 16-7 lead, piling up 225 yards of offense on their first three drives. But they would fumble three times in the second quarter, fall behind 27-16, and scored just one more time on their final 8 possessions in a 41-23 defeat.
Week 16 vs. Miami – A porous showing, especially on offense, in the first half led to a 17-0 Miami lead at halftime. But after getting on the board with a field goal to start the third quarter, the defense sparked a comeback with a fumble recovery at the MIA 38. A quick three and out led to the Patriots only having to go 41 yards for the tying touchdown. In the fourth quarter, Matt Moore threw an interception, and the Patriots marched for the go-ahead field goal. After one first down, Moore threw two incompletions and was sacked on third down. The Patriots added a touchdown and now led by 10 with 2:56 left. The Dolphins did go 80 yards for a touchdown; their first score since the first half. But they wouldn’t touch the ball again after New England ran out the clock on offense. The defense looked bad in giving up 17 early points, but shut things down and really helped the comeback with field position in the second half.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo – Another bizarre start for the Patriots led to Buffalo slicing and dicing their way to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. However, the New England offense woke up in a big way and the defense wouldn’t allow another point on their final 9 drives, including Ryan Fitzpatrick’s four interceptions (one pick six). It was hard to believe after the 21-0 start that the defense would finish with 14 net defensive points allowed on 12 drives in a 49-21 victory.
In all four games the Patriots were the better team, but started slow, and finished strong.
In 2011, the Patriots struggled with the aforementioned opening drives of games. Of their 34 tied drives, 15 of them were the opponent’s opening drive, as the Patriots like to defer the coin-toss. They allowed 40 points on those 15 drives (2.67 Pts/Dr), which may make them want to rethink that coin-toss strategy.
Eight of the tied drives were in the loss to the Giants, while the game with the next most tied drives (4) was Week 6 vs. Dallas. The game was sloppy early with turnovers setting up field goals, and the Cowboys would trail 13-10 at halftime. With the game tied 13-13 to start the fourth quarter, Dallas had to punt after three straight Tony Romo incompletions at the NE 45. After a Brady interception, Dallas moved the ball 60 yards, but had to settle for a field goal and a 16-13 lead. That was an important stop to keep them out of the end zone, and they’d get another big stop on a three and out; albeit Jason Garrett went ultra-conservative on the drive. Brady threw the game-winning touchdown pass with 0:22 left, and Dallas didn’t have enough time to answer in a 20-16 loss. The game wasn’t the shootout people expected, and the offense with the ball last basically won the game.
These are for drives where the defense protected a one score lead. The stats are eerily similar between 2007 and 2011, though the 2007 team of course did better in the fourth quarter, thus 16-0. The Patriots were unable to stop the Giants this season (twice even) in the fourth quarter.
One game the Patriots did hold back in the fourth quarter was Week 14 at Washington. The defense had a great start to the game with a three and out followed by a sack/fumble/touchdown off of Rex Grossman for a 7-0 lead. But the Redskins would score 20 straight points and the game was tied at halftime. They trailed 34-27 in the third quarter, and the defense would make a stand in their own territory. In the fourth quarter, the Redskins went three and out after a holding penalty derailed their drive. Brady threw a red zone interception that might have helped Bill O’Brien get the Penn State job, and it was up to the defense to stop Washington one more time. A 71-yard drive ensued, but after Santana Moss was called for offensive pass interference to negate a touchdown, Grossman’s last pass went off Moss’ hands and deflected into a game-ending interception for New England’s defense. It wasn’t their finest performance, but a defensive touchdown and game-ending takeaway usually do the job.
How about when the New England defense has a bigger lead to protect? Do they get more relaxed and start allowing more yards and points?
These are the drive stats for the defense when they had a 17+ point lead.
You can see the average lead was in the 20’s for these drives, and the overall points allowed did go up with the bigger lead (as did takeaways). Once again the 2011 defense looks the worst with more than 45 yards/drive and 1.85 Pts/Dr.
One game that really added to these numbers was Week 13 vs. Indianapolis. Even though Colts/Patriots almost always results in some wild comeback attempt, a 31-3 New England lead and Dan Orlovsky in his first start seemed like a hopeless rout. But it actually did get a little interesting.
The Patriots led 31-3 late in the third quarter, and Orlovsky put together an 86-yard touchdown drive. After the Patriots went three and out, he did throw an interception. But the Patriots went three and out again, and Orlovsky next led a 93-yard touchdown drive with 2:12 left to make it 31-17. The Patriots had their third three and out of the quarter, and with 1:43 left, Orlovsky put together a 90-yard touchdown drive with Pierre Garcon making another big play for a score with 0:36 left. New England would recover the onside kick, which effectively ended the game.
After doing little for the first three quarters and falling behind 31-3, the Colts had touchdown drives of 86, 93 and 90 yards in the fourth quarter. In the end, did any of it really matter? No, but if the onside kick had been recovered, then things would have continued to be interesting.
That concludes the look at drive stats and New England’s 13 wins this season.
Week 3 at Buffalo – A 21-0 lead built on great play on both sides of the ball evaporated. The Bills went on a 96-yard touchdown drive, and added a field goal before halftime. A short field touchdown (39 yards) came after Brady’s interception in the third quarter. They would force two more three and outs in a one score game, but after another Brady interception, Buffalo went 95 yards thanks to two penalties for the tying touchdown. Brady’s fourth interception of the game was a go-ahead score. Then with the game tied, Buffalo drove 70 yards for the game-winning field goal as time expired. The defense fell apart, but so did the offense (4 interceptions) after that 21-0 lead.
Week 8 at Pittsburgh – The Steelers took some notes out of the Patriots’ playbook and controlled the clock with a ball-control passing game. They held the ball for 39:22, and led 10-0 in the second quarter. The defense did intercept Ben Roethlisberger to set up a short 8-yard touchdown drive for Brady and the offense to make it 10-7. The Steelers led 17-10 at halftime, and would increase the lead to 23-10 in the fourth quarter. They’d later miss a 44-yard field goal, and the game would end after a safety scored by Pittsburgh on a loose ball. Despite the 427 yards and ball control, the Steelers were held to 23 points on offense.
Week 9 vs. NY Giants – Perhaps no game more relevant than this one right now; the expected shootout was a 0-0 tie at halftime. Hard to start coming down on the defenses when that happens. The Giants would get on the board first with a field goal, then only had to go 10 yards for a touchdown after Brady fumbled. The Giants would have the ball at the NE 2, but the defense held and forced an interception by Eli Manning, who was missing Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw that day. The Patriots tied the game in the fourth quarter then took a 13-10 lead after the defense held. The Giants went on an 85-yard touchdown drive that was then answered by New England’s touchdown. With 1:36 left, Eli put together an 80-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with just 0:15 left. That gave the Giants a 24-20 win after another exciting fourth quarter between these teams. The 361 yards were the 3rd fewest the Patriots allowed in the regular season.
The defense didn’t come through in the losses, though it’s not like the offense was perfect. They had 4 turnovers against both the Bills and Giants, and could never establish a rhythm in Pittsburgh.
And that’s what it’s all about. Both sides of the ball, and special teams, need to help each other out, and more often than not that happens and the team wins. There was no defensive collapse this year for the Patriots that cost them a game. There was no wild shootout victory or loss for that matter (unless you want to count the fourth quarter of the Giants game).
The games were all in striking distance this season, and that’s not unusual for the Patriots.
The New England Patriots are the only defense in the league to never allow more than 27 points in any game this season (including playoffs).
The minmax in game theory is when you attempt to minimize the worst case (maximum loss) scenario. It’s a perfect title in this stat, as we are looking for the team that minimized the worst points allowed performance of the season, and that would be New England setting the mark at 27.
Once again, that is based on only defensive points allowed (no return touchdowns or non-offensive scores). 27 has been their most allowed, and they did it twice (at Buffalo, at Washington). The San Francisco 49ers were also at 27 in the regular season (twice), but gave up 32 to the Saints in the playoffs. Every other defense in the league has given up at least 28 at least one time.
The Patriots, thanks to the bend-but-don’t-break defense, always do a good job of not giving up a lot of points defensively. We haven’t seen it quite as well performed this year, but consider that in 13/16 games, they held the opponent to 17 points or less through three quarters. That’s tied for 5th most games in the league in 2011. When you have an offense that you feel confident can score 30+ on anyone, then that’s a winning formula.
It’s especially a winning formula if you have a defense that rarely allows 30+ points. Since 2001, the Patriots have allowed 30+ points 24 times (6-18 record). That ranks only second behind Baltimore (21).
For the defense, the numbers are even more impressive after adjusting for return scores. Scores in red were return scores for the Patriots.
Out of the 24 games, only 15 times did the defense actually allow 30+ points. They are 4-11 in those games. Matt Cassel started four of the games in 2008; all losses.
Tom Brady has started 180 games in his career, and only 12 times has the defense allowed 30+ points. His record is 4-8, but he’s 0-7 since the 2004 season.
Is there any reason to expect the Giants to drop a lot of points on the New England defense this week? History says no. Something in the mid-to-low 20’s makes the most sense. The Giants struggled in New England this year, though they will be playing with Nicks and Bradshaw this time. The Patriots could have a less effective Gronkowski after the high-ankle sprain.
While some choose to declare this as being the worst defense to reach a Super Bowl, the facts show it’s not even the worst in the last four seasons. Did everyone just forget about the 2008 Cardinals? That defense allowed 405 points, which ranked 28th in the league.
What about the worst to win a Super Bowl? Don’t have to go much further than the 2006 Colts. They were 32nd in yards/drive (33.77) and 28th in points/drive (2.09) that season.
In fact, the worst defense on the field Sunday night might not even be from New England. The New York Giants allowed 400 points in the regular season; 377 points allowed on defense, or 46 more than the Patriots.
Each defense has had a spirited playoff run. For all the talk about the pass defense of New England, we’re not talking a word of this without Sterling Moore defending a pass in the end zone last week. Instead it’s a matter of whether Joe Flacco can be anything but oblivious to the Giants’ pass rush.
In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants went on the greatest drive in NFL history to win the game. In Week 9 this season, they went on two go-ahead touchdown drives. If it comes down to the fourth quarter again, and one drive to decide the winner, maybe the third time is the charm for the Patriots’ defense. Maybe that’s all they will need to be Super.
Are they good or are they awful? I just know they’re close.
Scott Kacsmar is a football researcher/writer who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He’s super, thanks for asking. It was “The Suitcase.” You can send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
Cold, Hard Football Facts Analyst at large
"I can’t tell the difference anymore between defense that’s good and defense that’s awful. I just know they’re close."
Heavily criticized all season long, the defense of the New England Patriots is in the Super Bowl, putting them just one win away from being crowned champions. It took a defended pass in the end zone by undrafted rookie Sterling Moore to prevent the team from allowing a late game-winning touchdown in the AFC Championship.
Now that little play on words at the top is inspired from an episode of Mad Men, and it sums up the role defense has played in the 2011 NFL season; especially for a defense like New England. We have not seen a whole lot of defense, it comes and goes, and the line between success and failure is so thin from week to week, from play to play. What role could defense play in Super Bowl XLVI? History says a huge one, but good luck figuring out which of these defenses will get the job done.
After previously reaching four Super Bowls with Bill Belichick coaching one of the league’s elite defenses, 2011 has been a much different story for the Patriots. The only remaining defensive player from those Super Bowl teams is Vince Wilfork. We’ll get into all the comparisons with Belichick’s past Super Bowl defenses later, but let’s first recap the glaring marks the defense had this season:
- New England allowed 411.1 yards/game in the regular season, which barely trailed the 15-1 Green Bay Packers (411.6) for worst in the league.
- Not only were they the two worst this season, but it ranks as the second and third worst ever in a 16-game season in NFL history.
- Both the Patriots and Packers also rank as the two defenses to allow the most passing yardage in a season in NFL history.
- Each team also claimed their conference’s best record.
- The 34 takeaways by New England ranked 3rd in the league.
If defense is supposed to “win championships”, then how can the Patriots have gotten this far?
When the Patriots lost 25-17 at Pittsburgh this season, the objective Associated Press recap of the game stated that “Ben Roethlisberger picked apart the NFL’s worst defense”, and that was the full extent of the description of the defense.There was not a single statistic attached in support of the claim the Patriots had the worst defense in the league. Through seven games, they did allow the most yards in the league, though several teams with far worse records were in the same ballpark. More importantly, there were 14 more teams that allowed more points, including the Colts who had just come off a 62-7 thrashing at the hands of New Orleans in primetime. Yet it was stated, as if to be taken purely as fact, that the Patriots had the worst defense in the league.
Were they really as bad as has been suggested, or is this just another classic case of yards being a poor indicator of success?
Long-time readers already know where we’re headed with this one, but kick back, and read along for the in-depth statistical nuggetry and success of New England’s bend-but-don’t-break defense.
The Point of the Game is Points
Somehow lost in all this talk about the New England defense is the fact that they ranked 15th in points allowed (342 points). The defense only allowed 331 points, which ranks 21st in points/drive this season, but even 21st is hardly the “worst in the league” as they’ve been often described. You can point to practically a dozen defenses every season that have done worse. Yet people treat them like they’re the 2000 Rams or Air Coryell Chargers (1981 team) when they’re simply not.How about the passing yards allowed? Don’t scroll down too far on that list of the most ever, and you’ll see this season’s New Orleans Saints (30th in 2011) and New York Giants (29th) rank right below the Packers and Patriots. What about the defensive passer rating? New England’s mark of 86.1 ranked 20th in the league. So once again you can find many teams doing worse season after season.
This is more than just some New England problem. It was a league problem in what was one unique season from a statistical standpoint.
For what stands out historically is the 2011 season as a whole, as it truly was defined by the passing onslaught. Part of this is from the lockout hamstringing defenses early on, and also the new rules on kickoffs dramatically changing field position, allowing for longer fields, and more yards to conquer.
Using this season’s Detroit Lions (5,881 yards allowed) as a cutoff point, there have been 71 teams to allow at least 5,880 yards in a season. Ten of them were from 2011 alone. Seven more were from 2010, while no other season had more than five teams at once.
Of those 71 teams, seven of them won at least 10 games. That includes four teams from 2011: Green Bay (15-1), New England (13-3), New Orleans (13-3) and Detroit (10-6). The Giants just missed the cut at 9-7, and make up one of the ten teams to have a winning record.
As it relates to yardage, things clearly were on a different level historically in 2011, as winning games in spite of allowing big yardage was never more prevalent. It remains to be seen how much this trend will continue, but there is one thing we always know about yards.
Yards don’t win games, points do.
In 2011, the average team scored 22.2 PPG, which means the average team allowed 22.2 PPG. The Patriots allowed 21.4 PPG, making them just above average, which supports their ranking of 15th in points allowed. Using a simple rating system to adjust for opponent, their defense grades out at -0.1, which further validates that they essentially played right to their level of competition on defense in 2011 when it came to points.
They weren’t stingy at all with giving up yards, but they made teams work extra hard for points. The Patriots ranked second in Cold, Hard Football Facts’Bendability this season. They allowed one point for every 19.23 yards. They also ranked second in Bendability the last time they won a Super Bowl (2004), and had a similar number (19.12). The 2007 defense was ranked 6th (16.84).
If this was any other team, the defense would likely get less attention. But when your head coach is Bill Belichick, who’s built his legacy on great defenses, then you have a story when your defense has these kinds of statistics.
As you’ll soon see, it’s not what New England fans have come to expect.
Drive Stats
We compiled the drive stats for the New England defense in all 16 regular season games for the 2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2011 seasons. That’s all five Super Bowl seasons under Belichick (80 games total).Yards and net yards were both tracked. The difference with net yards is that penalties count, either for or against the Patriots. The gross yards may differ from actual yards allowed due to the way fumble recovery yardage is handled (it is not counted in the stats for passing or rushing).
Kneel down drives were excluded from the data.
Look out for the brief game recaps in red, as we will explain why the defense played well (“did their job” in Belichick terms) in all 13 regular season wins this season. Both playoff games went just fine as well.
General Drive Stats
The LOS/Dr is the average starting field position the defense had when the drive began. Plays/Dr is the average number of plays the opponent ran per drive, which does count a field goal attempt as a play. As explained above, the difference between Yds/Dr and Net Yds/Dr is that the net includes penalties. The Avg. Margin is the average scoring margin the defense had when the drive started. Pts/Dr is the average number of points allowed by the defense per drive. Finally, there are league rankings (Rk) for that season for the LOS/Dr, Net Yds/Dr and Pts/Dr based on data from Football Outsiders’ drive stats.| Year | Drives | LOS/Dr | Rk | Plays/Dr | Yds/Dr | Net Yds/Dr | Rk | Avg. Margin | Pts/Dr | Rk |
| 2001 | 185 | 29.15 | 2 | 5.68 | 28.94 | 29.36 | 23 | 5.26 | 1.32 | 6 |
| 2003 | 197 | 30.66 | 9 | 5.55 | 23.87 | 23.75 | 4 | 4.30 | 1.13 | 1 |
| 2004 | 173 | 30.55 | 17 | 5.80 | 28.73 | 27.84 | 14 | 7.51 | 1.35 | 4 |
| 2007 | 174 | 26.92 | 1 | 5.44 | 26.46 | 26.25 | 8 | 12.07 | 1.41 | 3 |
| 2011 | 175 | 24.06 | 2 | 6.18 | 37.48 | 37.49 | 32 | 5.55 | 1.89 | 21 |
Where to start?
- Just briefly take in the interesting sequence of drive numbers for the last three Super Bowl seasons: 173, 174, and 175.
- Three times the Patriots’ defense had a top 2 average starting field position, including the 2nd best this season.
- You can also see the impact the kickoff rule had on field position, as ranking 2nd ten years ago meant starting five yards further back on defense.
- Plays/drive went up, but not significantly. The impact is not even really felt in the number of 10+ play drives each defense allowed: 25 (2001), 26 (2003), 33 (2004), 21 (2007), 33 (2011).
- New England was dead last in yards/drive (37.49) this season, which is significantly more than what they used to allow per drive.
- The Patriots were 68-12 over these five seasons, so they did a lot of leading, and their average margin was always positive.
- The 2007 Patriots were so good that the defense, on average, was taking the field with a 12-point lead.
- Points/drive went up around half a point this year, and even greater if comparing to the stingiest defense from 2003.
Those are your general drive stats, but we have broken things down into numerous splits for better context. The 2001 Patriots and 2011 Patriots have some similar drive stats, but the teams featured much different offenses and defenses, making the way these stats were reached much different.
Making Yards Productive
The main goal of any defense is to limit the points they allow, whether it’s by forcing a stop, or holding a team to field goal attempts instead of touchdowns. We looked at the number of yards (gross and net) teams had against the Patriots that resulted in no points being scored. These are called Stop Yds, which are unproductive for the opponent.| Year | Drives | Yds | Stop Yds | % | Net Yds | Stop Yds | % |
| 2001 | 185 | 5353 | 2495 | 46.61% | 5432 | 2539 | 46.74% |
| 2003 | 197 | 4702 | 2546 | 54.15% | 4679 | 2453 | 52.43% |
| 2004 | 173 | 4970 | 2578 | 51.87% | 4817 | 2437 | 50.59% |
| 2007 | 174 | 4604 | 1954 | 42.44% | 4568 | 1848 | 40.46% |
| 2011 | 175 | 6559 | 2558 | 39.00% | 6560 | 2396 | 36.52% |
The percentage of Stop Yds in 2011 were a far cry from where the Patriots were in their golden years of winning championships, but the totals were very similar.
These numbers can be adjusted however. There’s always been a thought that the teams in 2001 and 2003 had more luck than usual riding on their side, and one way that is proven statistically is the number of failed field goal attempts against the Patriots.
A field goal, either missed or blocked, is not so much a defensive stop as it is a special teams failure (or success if the Patriots were to block the kick). It just so happens the 2001-03 Patriots were far more fortunate at having opposing kickers fail to convert their chances than the more recent teams. We took the yardage involved on the failed field goal drives and subtracted them from the Stop Yds for the defense.
| Year | Failed FG’s | Yds | Net Yds | Yds | Stop Yds | % | Net Yds | Stop Yds | % |
| 2001 | 11 | 464 | 463 | 5353 | 2031 | 37.94% | 5432 | 2076 | 38.22% |
| 2003 | 10 | 372 | 376 | 4702 | 2174 | 46.24% | 4679 | 2077 | 44.39% |
| 2004 | 3 | 100 | 135 | 4970 | 2478 | 49.86% | 4817 | 2302 | 47.79% |
| 2007 | 2 | 76 | 66 | 4604 | 1878 | 40.79% | 4568 | 1782 | 39.01% |
| 2011 | 3 | 127 | 127 | 6559 | 2431 | 37.06% | 6560 | 2269 | 34.59% |
After having 11 and 10 failed field goals those first two seasons, the Patriots have had 8 combined in the last three Super Bowl seasons. You can see the amount of yardage wasted by the opponent on these drives, and it does bring the percentage of Stop Yds closer together (especially 2001 vs. 2011). It also makes the 2004 defense stand out more, and from the general table, we know the 2004 defense also dealt with worse starting field position.
We’ve talked about the Patriots’ success with Bendability, or making their opponent work hard for every point. A perfect example came to start the season.
Week 1 at Miami – After a strong 84-yard touchdown drive to start the game, Miami was unproductive the rest of the half and trailed 14-7. It would take a Tom Brady interception returned to the NE 9 in the third quarter for Miami to get back on the board with a tying touchdown on the short field. It was the shortest touchdown drive the Patriots allowed all season (9 yards).
Later, Miami had a 1st and goal at the NE 1, but were forced to settle for a field goal. The drive was 87 yards, but the Patriots held at the goal line. In the fourth quarter, Miami would start with 2 three and outs, followed by a 76-yard drive down to the NE 1. They went for it on fourth down and failed. One play later, Brady had a 99-yard touchdown to Wes Welker, and the Patriots led 38-17 with 5:44 left. Game was essentially over at this point. Chad Henne got a 74-yard touchdown drive, but then threw an interception on the game’s final play after another long drive (63 yards) failed.
The Dolphins had 488 yards, but only 24 points. 46% of their yardage gained that night produced 0 points on the scoreboard. That is not productive offense, and the failures in the red zone, caused by the New England defense, contributed to the loss as much as anything. Henne finishes with a flashy 416-yard performance, but how productive was it?
Week 4 at Oakland - the Raiders had an even worse performance against the Patriots. Sure, they finished with 504 yards of offense, but scored just 19 points, with the final touchdown coming on a 99-yard drive that started with 1:16 left, and Oakland trailing 31-13. Good for Oakland’s stats, good for fantasy football, but not helpful one bit when it comes to winning the game.
These two games against Miami and Oakland were the most yards the Patriots allowed all season, and yet they were two of the least productive days any offense had against the New England defense in 2011.
Defensive Stops: By Any Means Necessary
There are multiple ways to stop a drive. Forcing a punt is the most common. You also have the opportunity for a takeaway, a stop on fourth down, a missed field goal, or when the clock becomes your best friend and expires as your opponent is in possession of the ball.We looked at all of these types of stops for each year.
| Year | Drives | Stops | Stop% | Punts | Punts/Dr | Fum | INT | TO% | Failed FG’s | Downs | End Half | 3&OUT% |
| 2001 | 185 | 133 | 71.89% | 73 | 0.395 | 11 | 22 | 17.84% | 11 | 7 | 9 | 0.227 |
| 2003 | 197 | 151 | 76.65% | 90 | 0.457 | 10 | 29 | 19.80% | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0.264 |
| 2004 | 173 | 131 | 75.72% | 69 | 0.399 | 15 | 20 | 20.23% | 3 | 15 | 9 | 0.208 |
| 2007 | 174 | 132 | 75.86% | 75 | 0.431 | 10 | 19 | 16.67% | 2 | 10 | 16 | 0.253 |
| 2011 | 175 | 116 | 66.29% | 67 | 0.383 | 8 | 23 | 17.71% | 3 | 10 | 5 | 0.211 |
Again the 2011 defense is down 5-10% in terms of stopping drives (Stop%), but they put up comparable numbers at turnover rate (TO%), while not having the advantages of all the failed field goals.
The 2007 team could pad their drive stats a bit on defense by having 16 drives that ended because the clock expired on the opponent. 10 of those 16 drives were a team facing a 20+ point deficit and showing no real urgency to do anything.
Finally, the 3&OUT% is the percentage of drives that ended with a three and out. The 2011 defense did just as well as the 2004 team did in that department.
You may recall in Week 5 vs. New York Jets, they forced New York into a three and out on 7 of their first 9 drives. The Jets had a 20-yard touchdown drive that day after an 88-yard kick return. It was just one of three touchdown drives the Patriots allowed all season of 20 yards or less. It was the only game all season the Patriots didn’t register a takeaway in, but instead they allowed a season-low 255 yards and won it by being a shut-down defense.
Defensive Stops: Takeaways
Takeaways are always big, and the Patriots finished 3rd in the league with 34 of them this season. Three of those takeaways were not with the defense on the field. We looked at each defense’s takeaways and how many yards they allowed on the drive.| Year | Drives | TO | TO/Dr | Yds | Yds/Dr | %Yds | Net Yds | Net Yds/Dr | %Net Yds |
| 2001 | 185 | 33 | 0.178 | 698 | 21.15 | 13.04% | 703 | 21.19 | 12.94% |
| 2003 | 197 | 39 | 0.198 | 746 | 19.13 | 15.87% | 779 | 19.87 | 16.65% |
| 2004 | 173 | 35 | 0.202 | 738 | 21.09 | 14.85% | 760 | 21.59 | 15.78% |
| 2007 | 174 | 29 | 0.167 | 459 | 15.83 | 9.97% | 444 | 15.22 | 9.72% |
| 2011 | 175 | 31 | 0.177 | 971 | 31.32 | 14.80% | 941 | 30.18 | 14.34% |
In past years when the Patriots took the ball away, they usually did it rather quickly; surrendering an average of less than 20.0 yards/drive from 2001-07. In 2011, teams found it easier to move the ball on the defense, but ultimately, these 31 drives still ended with a takeaway and no points being allowed. Is it really that important that they still gave up over 30 yards/drive and nearly 1,000 yards in the process?
In Week 2 vs. San Diego, the Chargers came to town, and in usual San Diego/New England fashion, the Chargers came with a loaded gun that they slowly began to shoot themselves in the foot with. A 75-yard drive ended after Mike Tolbert was stuffed on 4th and goal at the NE 1. The next drive into NE territory ended with a Philip Rivers interception, as did the next drive (77 yards) into the red zone. San Diego had just 7 points through three quarters.
Finally with a chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter, Tolbert runs backwards and fumbles the ball. New England adds another touchdown, and San Diego never threatens again. They finish with 470 yards, but 4 big turnovers, and just 21 points.
The Patriots were 5-0 when forcing 3+ takeaways this season.
One of their finest performances was in Week 10 at New York Jets. Despite starting a makeshift lineup, the Patriots allowed just 14 points on defense, forced three turnovers, while also scoring a pick six on the night in a big victory over their AFC East rival.
The very next opponent, Week 11 vs. Kansas City, also turned the ball over three times, and the Patriots allowed just a season-low 3 points in a dominating 34-3 victory.
Touchdown Drives
The increase in points allowed this season was from the high number of touchdowns (39) the Patriots allowed. But what’s shocking is how many of these touchdowns came on a long field.Margin is again the average scoring margin the defense had when taking the field and before they allowed the touchdown. The Avg. Yds is the average net yards the touchdown drive was, and the last three columns break down the distances (less than 20, less than 50, 80 and higher).
| Year | Drives | TD | TD/Dr | Margin | Avg. Yds | <20 | <50 | 80+ |
| 2001 | 185 | 22 | 0.119 | 7.59 | 68.6 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 2003 | 197 | 21 | 0.107 | 4.29 | 53.9 | 3 | 8 | 5 |
| 2004 | 173 | 27 | 0.156 | 8.70 | 62.4 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| 2007 | 174 | 30 | 0.172 | 11.60 | 69.6 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2011 | 175 | 39 | 0.223 | 7.41 | 74.9 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
The first four Super Bowl defenses allowed a combined 28 touchdown drives of 80+ yards; the 2011 defense allowed a whopping 25.
That’s a staggering number, and you can see it in the average yards being close to 75 per touchdown. They allowed 7 touchdown drives of 90+ yards, though it should be noted that they led by 18-25 points for 4/7 of those drives.
However, it can’t be stated enough the impact the new kickoff rule has on such a stat. To give up an 80+ yard touchdown drive, you have to start at the opponent’s 20 or better, and that simply was more common this season than in past years.
| Year | Drives | SFP </= 20 | % | Pts/Dr |
| 2001 | 185 | 59 | 31.89% | 1.15 |
| 2003 | 197 | 60 | 30.46% | 0.65 |
| 2004 | 173 | 46 | 26.59% | 1.39 |
| 2007 | 174 | 63 | 36.21% | 1.06 |
| 2011 | 175 | 106 | 60.57% | 1.94 |
As you can see, 60.6% of the drives this season by the New England defense started at the opponent’s own 20 or worse. With the old kickoff rules, it was 31.3%, so it’s almost doubled.
But you can also see from the Pts/Dr that the defense has done a worse job when starting with such great field position, as they actually give up nearly 2.0 points/drive. That’s triple what the stingy 2003 defense allowed.
Different Scoring Margins
One of the thoughts about New England’s defense is that they give up a lot on defense because of everyone trying to catch up to their offense. There is definitely some truth to that.The following breaks down the drives for the defense based on whether or not they had a lead, deficit or were tied when they took the field.
| Year | Drives | Leading | % | Tied | % | Behind | % |
| 2001 | 185 | 111 | 60.00% | 40 | 21.62% | 34 | 18.38% |
| 2003 | 197 | 129 | 65.48% | 40 | 20.30% | 28 | 14.21% |
| 2004 | 173 | 132 | 76.30% | 30 | 17.34% | 11 | 6.36% |
| 2007 | 174 | 140 | 80.46% | 17 | 9.77% | 17 | 9.77% |
| 2011 | 175 | 108 | 61.71% | 34 | 19.43% | 33 | 18.86% |
The 2011 team has a distribution very similar to the 2001 Patriots, as they lead just over 60% of the time, are tied around 20%, and trail just under 19%.
Amazing stat: the 2004 Patriots’ defense trailed for just 11 drives all season (6.36%), and 8 of them came in one game (the 34-20 loss at Pittsburgh). They would also trail on just one drive defensively in that postseason.
Nearly as amazing is the 2007 team leading on over 80% of the drives. The offense was potent this season too, but things weren’t anywhere near as dominant as 2007. In fact, the wild comebacks the Patriots were involved in really skew a lot of their numbers in these three categories.
Defense: Playing from Behind
These are the drive stats for the defense when facing a deficit.| Year | Drives | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr | Yds/Dr | Net Yds/Dr | Avg. Deficit | TO/Dr | Pts/Dr |
| 2001 | 34 | 30.21 | 6.24 | 27.21 | 26.06 | -7.29 | 0.088 | 1.12 |
| 2003 | 28 | 34.32 | 5.32 | 23.32 | 23.04 | -9.93 | 0.107 | 1.54 |
| 2004 | 11 | 32.55 | 7.64 | 34.09 | 36.82 | -12.27 | 0.000 | 1.82 |
| 2007 | 17 | 30.65 | 4.53 | 15.35 | 14.18 | -4.24 | 0.118 | 1.00 |
| 2011 | 33 | 28.73 | 5.91 | 32.20 | 31.67 | -7.12 | 0.152 | 1.73 |
How does a team go 16-0 like in 2007? Rarely play from behind, and when you do, don’t exacerbate things by giving up more points (1.00 Pts/Dr in 2007).
The 33 drives for the 2011 Patriots are an interesting mix. Eight of the drives are from the loss at Pittsburgh. Then you have 19 drives that come from a four-pack of games that saw the Patriots fall behind by multiple scores early, only to turn it on later for a few convincing victories.
Week 12 at Philadelphia – After falling behind 10-0 early and allowing Vince Young to throw for 137 yards in the first quarter, the Patriots tightened up in a hurry. They forced a pair of three and outs and an interception, and just like that they led 21-10. The Eagles converted a 78-yard drive into just a field goal, and they squandered a 78-yard drive in the third quarter after failing to convert 4th and 1 at the NE 2. Down 38-13 in the fourth quarter, Young engineered a 90-yard drive that actually gained 105 yards because of penalties. All that did was make the final score 38-20, as it was another insignificant drive. Like Henne in Week 1, Young finishes with a very unproductive 400-yard passing game.
Week 15 at Denver – The Broncos raced out to a 16-7 lead, piling up 225 yards of offense on their first three drives. But they would fumble three times in the second quarter, fall behind 27-16, and scored just one more time on their final 8 possessions in a 41-23 defeat.
Week 16 vs. Miami – A porous showing, especially on offense, in the first half led to a 17-0 Miami lead at halftime. But after getting on the board with a field goal to start the third quarter, the defense sparked a comeback with a fumble recovery at the MIA 38. A quick three and out led to the Patriots only having to go 41 yards for the tying touchdown. In the fourth quarter, Matt Moore threw an interception, and the Patriots marched for the go-ahead field goal. After one first down, Moore threw two incompletions and was sacked on third down. The Patriots added a touchdown and now led by 10 with 2:56 left. The Dolphins did go 80 yards for a touchdown; their first score since the first half. But they wouldn’t touch the ball again after New England ran out the clock on offense. The defense looked bad in giving up 17 early points, but shut things down and really helped the comeback with field position in the second half.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo – Another bizarre start for the Patriots led to Buffalo slicing and dicing their way to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter. However, the New England offense woke up in a big way and the defense wouldn’t allow another point on their final 9 drives, including Ryan Fitzpatrick’s four interceptions (one pick six). It was hard to believe after the 21-0 start that the defense would finish with 14 net defensive points allowed on 12 drives in a 49-21 victory.
In all four games the Patriots were the better team, but started slow, and finished strong.
Defenses: Tied Game
These are the drive stats for the defense when the game was tied.| Year | Drives | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr | Yds/Dr | Net Yds/Dr | TO/Dr | Pts/Dr |
| 2001 | 40 | 28.98 | 4.43 | 22.60 | 22.53 | 0.175 | 1.10 |
| 2003 | 40 | 27.00 | 5.28 | 21.80 | 22.95 | 0.200 | 0.98 |
| 2004 | 30 | 27.73 | 5.30 | 24.10 | 21.23 | 0.200 | 0.93 |
| 2007 | 17 | 23.18 | 6.00 | 27.65 | 31.29 | 0.235 | 1.59 |
| 2011 | 34 | 25.79 | 6.24 | 36.35 | 35.26 | 0.118 | 1.62 |
In 2011, the Patriots struggled with the aforementioned opening drives of games. Of their 34 tied drives, 15 of them were the opponent’s opening drive, as the Patriots like to defer the coin-toss. They allowed 40 points on those 15 drives (2.67 Pts/Dr), which may make them want to rethink that coin-toss strategy.
Eight of the tied drives were in the loss to the Giants, while the game with the next most tied drives (4) was Week 6 vs. Dallas. The game was sloppy early with turnovers setting up field goals, and the Cowboys would trail 13-10 at halftime. With the game tied 13-13 to start the fourth quarter, Dallas had to punt after three straight Tony Romo incompletions at the NE 45. After a Brady interception, Dallas moved the ball 60 yards, but had to settle for a field goal and a 16-13 lead. That was an important stop to keep them out of the end zone, and they’d get another big stop on a three and out; albeit Jason Garrett went ultra-conservative on the drive. Brady threw the game-winning touchdown pass with 0:22 left, and Dallas didn’t have enough time to answer in a 20-16 loss. The game wasn’t the shootout people expected, and the offense with the ball last basically won the game.
Defenses: Playing with the Lead
These are the drive stats for the defense when they had a 1-8 point lead.| Year | Drives | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr | Yds/Dr | Net Yds/Dr | TO/Dr | Pts/Dr |
| 2001 | 53 | 27.53 | 6.34 | 30.85 | 31.66 | 0.151 | 1.34 |
| 2003 | 78 | 30.51 | 5.73 | 24.05 | 23.26 | 0.154 | 1.12 |
| 2004 | 64 | 32.52 | 5.67 | 26.41 | 26.41 | 0.234 | 1.19 |
| 2007 | 45 | 24.02 | 5.24 | 29.27 | 28.82 | 0.178 | 1.69 |
| 2011 | 50 | 24.34 | 5.42 | 32.72 | 34.24 | 0.180 | 1.70 |
These are for drives where the defense protected a one score lead. The stats are eerily similar between 2007 and 2011, though the 2007 team of course did better in the fourth quarter, thus 16-0. The Patriots were unable to stop the Giants this season (twice even) in the fourth quarter.
One game the Patriots did hold back in the fourth quarter was Week 14 at Washington. The defense had a great start to the game with a three and out followed by a sack/fumble/touchdown off of Rex Grossman for a 7-0 lead. But the Redskins would score 20 straight points and the game was tied at halftime. They trailed 34-27 in the third quarter, and the defense would make a stand in their own territory. In the fourth quarter, the Redskins went three and out after a holding penalty derailed their drive. Brady threw a red zone interception that might have helped Bill O’Brien get the Penn State job, and it was up to the defense to stop Washington one more time. A 71-yard drive ensued, but after Santana Moss was called for offensive pass interference to negate a touchdown, Grossman’s last pass went off Moss’ hands and deflected into a game-ending interception for New England’s defense. It wasn’t their finest performance, but a defensive touchdown and game-ending takeaway usually do the job.
How about when the New England defense has a bigger lead to protect? Do they get more relaxed and start allowing more yards and points?
These are the drive stats for the defense when they had a 17+ point lead.
| Year | Drives | LOS/Dr | Plays/Dr | Yds/Dr | Net Yds/Dr | Avg. Lead | TO/Dr | Pts/Dr |
| 2001 | 30 | 27.93 | 6.07 | 36.87 | 38.87 | 21.43 | 0.333 | 1.77 |
| 2003 | 17 | 31.90 | 6.65 | 28.90 | 29.29 | 22.88 | 0.294 | 1.18 |
| 2004 | 25 | 28.04 | 5.68 | 31.32 | 30.12 | 22.48 | 0.200 | 1.84 |
| 2007 | 62 | 28.29 | 5.52 | 25.94 | 25.68 | 25.48 | 0.129 | 1.21 |
| 2011 | 26 | 18.65 | 6.85 | 45.88 | 46.31 | 21.31 | 0.269 | 1.85 |
You can see the average lead was in the 20’s for these drives, and the overall points allowed did go up with the bigger lead (as did takeaways). Once again the 2011 defense looks the worst with more than 45 yards/drive and 1.85 Pts/Dr.
One game that really added to these numbers was Week 13 vs. Indianapolis. Even though Colts/Patriots almost always results in some wild comeback attempt, a 31-3 New England lead and Dan Orlovsky in his first start seemed like a hopeless rout. But it actually did get a little interesting.
The Patriots led 31-3 late in the third quarter, and Orlovsky put together an 86-yard touchdown drive. After the Patriots went three and out, he did throw an interception. But the Patriots went three and out again, and Orlovsky next led a 93-yard touchdown drive with 2:12 left to make it 31-17. The Patriots had their third three and out of the quarter, and with 1:43 left, Orlovsky put together a 90-yard touchdown drive with Pierre Garcon making another big play for a score with 0:36 left. New England would recover the onside kick, which effectively ended the game.
After doing little for the first three quarters and falling behind 31-3, the Colts had touchdown drives of 86, 93 and 90 yards in the fourth quarter. In the end, did any of it really matter? No, but if the onside kick had been recovered, then things would have continued to be interesting.
That concludes the look at drive stats and New England’s 13 wins this season.
What About the Losses?
As the defense made significant contributions to all 13 wins, they also played a key role in the three losses this season.Week 3 at Buffalo – A 21-0 lead built on great play on both sides of the ball evaporated. The Bills went on a 96-yard touchdown drive, and added a field goal before halftime. A short field touchdown (39 yards) came after Brady’s interception in the third quarter. They would force two more three and outs in a one score game, but after another Brady interception, Buffalo went 95 yards thanks to two penalties for the tying touchdown. Brady’s fourth interception of the game was a go-ahead score. Then with the game tied, Buffalo drove 70 yards for the game-winning field goal as time expired. The defense fell apart, but so did the offense (4 interceptions) after that 21-0 lead.
Week 8 at Pittsburgh – The Steelers took some notes out of the Patriots’ playbook and controlled the clock with a ball-control passing game. They held the ball for 39:22, and led 10-0 in the second quarter. The defense did intercept Ben Roethlisberger to set up a short 8-yard touchdown drive for Brady and the offense to make it 10-7. The Steelers led 17-10 at halftime, and would increase the lead to 23-10 in the fourth quarter. They’d later miss a 44-yard field goal, and the game would end after a safety scored by Pittsburgh on a loose ball. Despite the 427 yards and ball control, the Steelers were held to 23 points on offense.
Week 9 vs. NY Giants – Perhaps no game more relevant than this one right now; the expected shootout was a 0-0 tie at halftime. Hard to start coming down on the defenses when that happens. The Giants would get on the board first with a field goal, then only had to go 10 yards for a touchdown after Brady fumbled. The Giants would have the ball at the NE 2, but the defense held and forced an interception by Eli Manning, who was missing Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw that day. The Patriots tied the game in the fourth quarter then took a 13-10 lead after the defense held. The Giants went on an 85-yard touchdown drive that was then answered by New England’s touchdown. With 1:36 left, Eli put together an 80-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with just 0:15 left. That gave the Giants a 24-20 win after another exciting fourth quarter between these teams. The 361 yards were the 3rd fewest the Patriots allowed in the regular season.
The defense didn’t come through in the losses, though it’s not like the offense was perfect. They had 4 turnovers against both the Bills and Giants, and could never establish a rhythm in Pittsburgh.
And that’s what it’s all about. Both sides of the ball, and special teams, need to help each other out, and more often than not that happens and the team wins. There was no defensive collapse this year for the Patriots that cost them a game. There was no wild shootout victory or loss for that matter (unless you want to count the fourth quarter of the Giants game).
The games were all in striking distance this season, and that’s not unusual for the Patriots.
Minmax Stat of the Year
We first brought this up last week.The New England Patriots are the only defense in the league to never allow more than 27 points in any game this season (including playoffs).
The minmax in game theory is when you attempt to minimize the worst case (maximum loss) scenario. It’s a perfect title in this stat, as we are looking for the team that minimized the worst points allowed performance of the season, and that would be New England setting the mark at 27.
Once again, that is based on only defensive points allowed (no return touchdowns or non-offensive scores). 27 has been their most allowed, and they did it twice (at Buffalo, at Washington). The San Francisco 49ers were also at 27 in the regular season (twice), but gave up 32 to the Saints in the playoffs. Every other defense in the league has given up at least 28 at least one time.
The Patriots, thanks to the bend-but-don’t-break defense, always do a good job of not giving up a lot of points defensively. We haven’t seen it quite as well performed this year, but consider that in 13/16 games, they held the opponent to 17 points or less through three quarters. That’s tied for 5th most games in the league in 2011. When you have an offense that you feel confident can score 30+ on anyone, then that’s a winning formula.
It’s especially a winning formula if you have a defense that rarely allows 30+ points. Since 2001, the Patriots have allowed 30+ points 24 times (6-18 record). That ranks only second behind Baltimore (21).
For the defense, the numbers are even more impressive after adjusting for return scores. Scores in red were return scores for the Patriots.
| Date | Opp. | Result | Adj. PF | Adj. PA | Notes |
| 10/7/2001 | at Miami | L 30-10 | 10 | 23 | Brady Fumble TD |
| 10/28/2001 | at Denver | L 31-20 | 20 | 24 | Brady INT TD |
| 9/22/2002 | Kansas City | W 41-38 OT | 41 | 38 | |
| 11/10/2002 | at Chicago | W 33-30 | 33 | 30 | |
| 12/22/2002 | NY Jets | L 30-17 | 10 | 30 | K.Faulk KR TD |
| 9/7/2003 | at Buffalo | L 31-0 | 0 | 24 | Brady INT TD |
| 10/5/2003 | Tennessee | W 38-30 | 31 | 30 | McNair INT TD |
| 11/30/2003 | at Indianapolis | W 38-34 | 31 | 34 | Johnson KR TD |
| 10/31/2004 | at Pittsburgh | L 34-20 | 20 | 27 | Brady INT TD |
| 10/2/2005 | San Diego | L 41-17 | 17 | 34 | CasselINT TD |
| 11/7/2005 | Indianapolis | L 40-21 | 21 | 40 | |
| 1/21/2007 | at Indianapolis | L 38-34 | 27 | 38 | Manning INT TD |
| 12/29/2007 | at NY Giants | W 38-35 | 38 | 28 | Hixon KR TD |
| 9/21/2008 | Miami | L 38-13 | 13 | 38 | CasselGS |
| 10/12/2008 | at San Diego | L 30-10 | 10 | 30 | CasselGS |
| 11/13/2008 | NY Jets | L 34-31 OT | 31 | 27 | WashingtonKR TD; Cassel GS |
| 11/30/2008 | Pittsburgh | L 33-10 | 10 | 33 | CasselGS |
| 11/15/2009 | at Indianapolis | L 35-34 | 34 | 35 | |
| 11/30/2009 | at New Orleans | L 38-17 | 17 | 38 | |
| 1/3/2010 | at Houston | L 34-27 | 20 | 27 | Schaub INT TD, Taylor FUM TD |
| 1/10/2010 | Baltimore | L 33-14 | 14 | 33 | |
| 9/26/2010 | Buffalo | W 38-30 | 38 | 23 | Spiller KR TD |
| 11/7/2010 | at Cleveland | L 34-14 | 14 | 34 | |
| 9/25/2011 | at Buffalo | L 34-31 | 31 | 27 | Brady INT TD |
Out of the 24 games, only 15 times did the defense actually allow 30+ points. They are 4-11 in those games. Matt Cassel started four of the games in 2008; all losses.
Tom Brady has started 180 games in his career, and only 12 times has the defense allowed 30+ points. His record is 4-8, but he’s 0-7 since the 2004 season.
Is there any reason to expect the Giants to drop a lot of points on the New England defense this week? History says no. Something in the mid-to-low 20’s makes the most sense. The Giants struggled in New England this year, though they will be playing with Nicks and Bradshaw this time. The Patriots could have a less effective Gronkowski after the high-ankle sprain.
Conclusion
No one’s going to confuse the 2011 Patriots’ defense for past Super Bowl defenses from New England, but clearly they have never been anywhere near as bad as the reputation they have wrongly carried all season. Situational football is real, and the Patriots do it so well.While some choose to declare this as being the worst defense to reach a Super Bowl, the facts show it’s not even the worst in the last four seasons. Did everyone just forget about the 2008 Cardinals? That defense allowed 405 points, which ranked 28th in the league.
What about the worst to win a Super Bowl? Don’t have to go much further than the 2006 Colts. They were 32nd in yards/drive (33.77) and 28th in points/drive (2.09) that season.
In fact, the worst defense on the field Sunday night might not even be from New England. The New York Giants allowed 400 points in the regular season; 377 points allowed on defense, or 46 more than the Patriots.
Each defense has had a spirited playoff run. For all the talk about the pass defense of New England, we’re not talking a word of this without Sterling Moore defending a pass in the end zone last week. Instead it’s a matter of whether Joe Flacco can be anything but oblivious to the Giants’ pass rush.
In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants went on the greatest drive in NFL history to win the game. In Week 9 this season, they went on two go-ahead touchdown drives. If it comes down to the fourth quarter again, and one drive to decide the winner, maybe the third time is the charm for the Patriots’ defense. Maybe that’s all they will need to be Super.
Are they good or are they awful? I just know they’re close.
Scott Kacsmar is a football researcher/writer who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He’s super, thanks for asking. It was “The Suitcase.” You can send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
Read more: Bill Belichick, Eli Manning, New England Patriots, New York Giants, NFL, Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLVI, Tom Brady
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