Super Bowl Super Study Says Patriots, Broncos Built Like Champs

5. No Need for a Big Leap of Faith

While nearly all of this data focus on the “here and now” of the season, there is something to understand about what a championship team did relative to the previous season. Normally, teams that make a huge improvement from the previous season need to earn stripes in the postseason before they make a Super Bowl run. Meanwhile, a significantly-declining team rarely makes a Super Bowl run, and instead normally fade away in the playoffs.

The table below look at each Super Bowl combatant’s win differential from the previous season. Note that the 1978 Steelers and 1978 Cowboys played two more games than they did in 1977, so those results may be skewed. Also, the 1982 strike-season significantly skews those stats. Therefore, any seasons with an inconsistent amount of games will have a prorated win differential. The numbers for prorating the 1982 season are considered unreliable.

Winners				Losers
SB	Team	Differential			SB	Team	Differential
I	66 Packers	+1.5			I	66 Chiefs	+3.5
II	67 Packers	-2.5			II	67 Raiders	+4.5
III	68 Jets	+2.5			III	68 Colts	+1.5
IV	69 Chiefs	-1			IV	69 Vikings	+4
V	70 Colts	+3			V	70 Cowboys	-1.5
VI	71 Cowboys	+1			VI	71 Dolphins	+0.5
VII	72 Dolphins	+3.5			VII	72 Redskins	+1.5
VIII	73 Dolphins	-2			VIII	73 Vikings	+5
IX	74 Steelers	+0.5			IX	74 Vikings	-2
X	75 Steelers	+1.5			X	75 Cowboys	+2
XI	76 Raiders	+2			XI	76 Vikings	-0.5
XII	77 Cowboys	+1			XII	77 Broncos	+3
XIII	78 Steelers	+3.7			XIII	78 Cowboys	-1.7
XIV	79 Steelers	-2			XIV	79 Rams	-3
XV	80 Raiders	+2			XV	80 Eagles	+1
XVI	81 49ers	+7			XVI	81 Bengals	+6
XVII	82 Redskins	+6.2			XVII	82 Dolphins	+0.9
XVIII	83 Raiders	-2.2			XVIII	83 Redskins	-0.2
XIX	84 49ers	+5			XIX	84 Dolphins	+2
XX	85 Bears	+5			XX	85 Patriots	+2
XXI	86 Giants	+4			XXI	86 Broncos	Even
XXII	87 Redskins	-0.3			XXII	87 Broncos	+0.2
XXIII	88 49ers	-3.9			XXIII	88 Bengals	+7.7
XXIV	89 49ers	+4			XXIV	89 Broncos	+3
XXV	90 Giants	+1			XXV	90 Bills	+4
XXVI	91 Redskins	+2			XXVI	91 Bills	Even
XXVII	92 Cowboys	+2			XXVII	92 Bills	-2
XXVIII	93 Cowboys	-1			XXVIII	93 Bills	+1
XXIX	94 49ers	+3			XXIX	94 Chargers	+3
XXX	95 Cowboys	Even			XXX	95 Steelers	-1
XXXI	96 Packers	+2			XXXI	96 Patriots	+5
XXXII	97 Broncos	-1			XXXII	97 Packers	Even
XXXIII	98 Broncos	+2			XXXIII	98 Falcons	+7
XXXIV	99 Rams	+9			XXXIV	99 Titans	+5
XXXV	00 Ravens	+4			XXXV	00 Giants	+5
XXXVI	01 Patriots	+6			XXXVI	01 Rams	+4
XXXVII	02 Bucs	+3			XXXVII	02 Raiders	+1
XXXVIII	03 Patriots	+5			XXXVIII	03 Panthers	+4
XXXIX	04 Patriots	Even			XXXIX	04 Eagles	+1
XL	05 Steelers	-4			XL	05 Seahawks	+4
XLI	06 Colts	-2			XLI	06 Bears	+2
XLII	07 Giants	+2			XLII	07 Patriots	+4
XLIII	08 Steelers	+2			XLIII	08 Cardinals	+1
XLIV	09 Saints	+5			XLIV	09 Colts	+2
XLV	10 Packers	-1			XLV	10 Steelers	+3
XLVI	11 Giants	-1			XLVI	11 Patriots	-1

Given the ability to go from a competitive team (8-8 or 9-7) to go to an elite team (13-3 or 14-2), it seems like the upper bound should be a five-game improvement. Meanwhile, because a few plays can impact a handful of games, the lower bound should be a two-game decline.

Among the playoff teams, the 2012 Broncos just make the cut. They along the lines of non-outlying champions like the 2003 Patriots and 2009 Saints. Meanwhile, the 2012 Redskins also improved by five games, but they double their win total. Perhaps this could be invested further with a win differential study by percentages.

While two just missed the cut, two teams made the cut and will be the front-running candidates for overall regression in 2013. The 2012 Colts improved from 2-14 to go 11-5 despite the interim change of Chuck Pagano to Bruce Arians as head coach. Perhaps Pagano’s battle against Leukemia was the most inspirational story in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, the 2012 Vikings improved from 3-13 to go 10-6 as Adrian Peterson pursued the single-season rushing record less than a year removed from suffering a significant knee injury. While both stories are quite amazing, those regular season fairy tales will suffer a rude awakening in the postseason.

On the other side, the 2012 Packers regressed from 15-1 to 11-5, but they fit a similar path to that of the 2005 Steelers. Simple regression can explain this outlier, so the Packers’ chances aren’t severely hurt.

 

 

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Read more: Adam Dobrowolski, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Patriots, Peyton Manning, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLVII, TBA, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin, Washington Redskins