Super Bowl Super Study Says Patriots, Broncos Built Like Champs

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 06, 2013

12. Passer Rating Differential

This study culminates with a look at the mother of all stats, Passer Rating Differential. Just check the extensive studies that Cold, Hard Football Facts previously conducted, and it shows how passing efficiency determines the best teams in the league. We’ll just remind you what’s going on with the chart below.










I66 Packers


 I66 Chiefs


II67 Packers


 II67 Raiders


III68 Jets


 III68 Colts


IV69 Chiefs


 IV69 Vikings


V70 Colts


 V70 Cowboys


VI71 Cowboys


 VI71 Dolphins


VII72 Dolphins


 VII72 Redskins


VIII73 Dolphins


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IX74 Steelers


 IX74 Vikings


X75 Steelers


 X75 Cowboys


XI76 Raiders


 XI76 Vikings


XII77 Cowboys


 XII77 Broncos


XIII78 Steelers


 XIII78 Cowboys


XIV79 Steelers


 XIV79 Rams


XV80 Raiders


 XV80 Eagles


XVI81 49ers


 XVI81 Bengals


XVII82 Redskins


 XVII82 Dolphins


XVIII83 Raiders


 XVIII83 Redskins


XIX84 49ers


 XIX84 Dolphins


XX85 Bears


 XX85 Patriots


XXI86 Giants


 XXI86 Broncos


XXII87 Redskins


 XXII87 Broncos


XXIII88 49ers


 XXIII88 Bengals


XXIV89 49ers


 XXIV89 Broncos


XXV90 Giants


 XXV90 Bills


XXVI91 Redskins


 XXVI91 Bills


XXVII92 Cowboys


 XXVII92 Bills


XXVIII93 Cowboys


 XXVIII93 Bills


XXIX94 49ers


 XXIX94 Chargers


XXX95 Cowboys


 XXX95 Steelers


XXXI96 Packers


 XXXI96 Patriots


XXXII97 Broncos


 XXXII97 Packers


XXXIII98 Broncos


 XXXIII98 Falcons


XXXIV99 Rams


 XXXIV99 Titans


XXXV00 Ravens


 XXXV00 Giants


XXXVI01 Patriots


 XXXVI01 Rams




 XXXVII02 Raiders


XXXVIII03 Patriots


 XXXVIII03 Panthers


XXXIX04 Patriots


 XXXIX04 Eagles


XL05 Steelers


 XL05 Seahawks


XLI06 Colts


 XLI06 Bears


XLII07 Giants


 XLII07 Patriots


XLIII08 Steelers


 XLIII08 Cardinals


XLIV09 Saints


 XLIV09 Colts


XLV10 Packers


 XLV10 Steelers


XLVI11 Giants


 XLVI11 Patriots


The threshold for this part of the study ends at a +8.0 Passer Rating Differential. This seems to offer fair amount to allow the good and dominant teams to have a legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl. Note how there seems to be no certain correlation between the better teams in Passer Rating Differential winning the Super Bowl. Just get in the ballpark, and it seems like you can win as long as you execute in the postseason.

Four in this postseason fail to make the threshold. This includes the AFC North playoff teams in the 2012 Ravens (+5.78) and the 2012 Bengals (+7.26) failing to own a significant advantage in passing efficiency. Both teams are in the middle of the pack on both sides of the football in those passing indicators. Meanwhile, a pair of teams owns a negative Passer Rating Differential.

The 2012 Vikings own a -11.07 Passer Rating Differential, due in large part to the team finishing 25th in Defensive Passer Rating. The 2012 Colts own a -13.71 Passer Rating Differential, putting the team 27th overall in that quality stat category. It seems like those two teams have a long way to go.


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