Super Bowl Super Study Says Patriots, Broncos Built Like Champs

12. Passer Rating Differential

This study culminates with a look at the mother of all stats, Passer Rating Differential. Just check the extensive studies that Cold, Hard Football Facts previously conducted, and it shows how passing efficiency determines the best teams in the league. We’ll just remind you what’s going on with the chart below.

Winners				Losers
SB	Team	PRD			SB	Team	PRD
I	66 Packers	+56.0			I	66 Chiefs	+42.6
II	67 Packers	+22.2			II	67 Raiders	+31.4
III	68 Jets	+22.4			III	68 Colts	+36.5
IV	69 Chiefs	+29.3			IV	69 Vikings	+33.9
V	70 Colts	+13.0			V	70 Cowboys	+27.0
VI	71 Cowboys	+32.9			VI	71 Dolphins	+21.6
VII	72 Dolphins	+39.5			VII	72 Redskins	+26.5
VIII	73 Dolphins	+35.3			VIII	73 Vikings	+35.5
IX	74 Steelers	+4.6			IX	74 Vikings	+28.2
X	75 Steelers	+43.9			X	75 Cowboys	+24.1
XI	76 Raiders	+33.4			XI	76 Vikings	+34.7
XII	77 Cowboys	+37.1			XII	77 Broncos	+18.4
XIII	78 Steelers	+29.7			XIII	78 Cowboys	+29.4
XIV	79 Steelers	+20.2			XIV	79 Rams	-3.3
XV	80 Raiders	+8.2			XV	80 Eagles	+34.4
XVI	81 49ers	+27.5			XVI	81 Bengals	+14.4
XVII	82 Redskins	+24.1			XVII	82 Dolphins	+15.3
XVIII	83 Raiders	+7.0			XVIII	83 Redskins	+27.4
XIX	84 49ers	+36.3			XIX	84 Dolphins	+37.1
XX	85 Bears	+26.1			XX	85 Patriots	+26.1
XXI	86 Giants	+6.4			XXI	86 Broncos	+2.8
XXII	87 Redskins	+11.4			XXII	87 Broncos	+14.6
XXIII	88 49ers	+11.3			XXIII	88 Bengals	+27.4
XXIV	89 49ers	+46.3			XXIV	89 Broncos	+9.6
XXV	90 Giants	+28.4			XXV	90 Bills	+25.0
XXVI	91 Redskins	+39.1			XXVI	91 Bills	+32.4
XXVII	92 Cowboys	+18.9			XXVII	92 Bills	+4.8
XXVIII	93 Cowboys	+21.5			XXVIII	93 Bills	+11.0
XXIX	94 49ers	+47.3			XXIX	94 Chargers	-0.7
XXX	95 Cowboys	+19.4			XXX	95 Steelers	+0.2
XXXI	96 Packers	+40.3			XXXI	96 Patriots	+14.3
XXXII	97 Broncos	+15.9			XXXII	97 Packers	+32.9
XXXIII	98 Broncos	+13.0			XXXIII	98 Falcons	+15.9
XXXIV	99 Rams	+42.3			XXXIV	99 Titans	+0.8
XXXV	00 Ravens	+10.2			XXXV	00 Giants	+9.4
XXXVI	01 Patriots	+16.7			XXXVI	01 Rams	+32.3
XXXVII	02 Bucs	+37.9			XXXVII	02 Raiders	+19.9
XXXVIII	03 Patriots	+28.1			XXXVIII	03 Panthers	+4.8
XXXIX	04 Patriots	+17.2			XXXIX	04 Eagles	+20.6
XL	05 Steelers	+15.4			XL	05 Seahawks	+19.4
XLI	06 Colts	+20.6			XLI	06 Bears	+7.0
XLII	07 Giants	-10.4			XLII	07 Patriots	+37.9
XLIII	08 Steelers	+18.5			XLIII	08 Cardinals	-0.8
XLIV	09 Saints	+37.4			XLIV	09 Colts	+14.8
XLV	10 Packers	+31.7			XLV	10 Steelers	+22.1
XLVI	11 Giants	+6.8			XLVI	11 Patriots	+19.6

The threshold for this part of the study ends at a +8.0 Passer Rating Differential. This seems to offer fair amount to allow the good and dominant teams to have a legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl. Note how there seems to be no certain correlation between the better teams in Passer Rating Differential winning the Super Bowl. Just get in the ballpark, and it seems like you can win as long as you execute in the postseason.

Four in this postseason fail to make the threshold. This includes the AFC North playoff teams in the 2012 Ravens (+5.78) and the 2012 Bengals (+7.26) failing to own a significant advantage in passing efficiency. Both teams are in the middle of the pack on both sides of the football in those passing indicators. Meanwhile, a pair of teams owns a negative Passer Rating Differential.

The 2012 Vikings own a -11.07 Passer Rating Differential, due in large part to the team finishing 25th in Defensive Passer Rating. The 2012 Colts own a -13.71 Passer Rating Differential, putting the team 27th overall in that quality stat category. It seems like those two teams have a long way to go.

 

 

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Read more: Adam Dobrowolski, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Patriots, Peyton Manning, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Super Bowl, Super Bowl XLVII, TBA, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin, Washington Redskins