Super Bowl Super Study Says Patriots, Broncos Built Like Champs

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 06, 2013



12. Passer Rating Differential

This study culminates with a look at the mother of all stats, Passer Rating Differential. Just check the extensive studies that Cold, Hard Football Facts previously conducted, and it shows how passing efficiency determines the best teams in the league. We’ll just remind you what’s going on with the chart below.

Winners

Losers

SB

Team

PRD

 

SB

Team

PRD

I66 Packers

+56.0

 I66 Chiefs

+42.6

II67 Packers

+22.2

 II67 Raiders

+31.4

III68 Jets

+22.4

 III68 Colts

+36.5

IV69 Chiefs

+29.3

 IV69 Vikings

+33.9

V70 Colts

+13.0

 V70 Cowboys

+27.0

VI71 Cowboys

+32.9

 VI71 Dolphins

+21.6

VII72 Dolphins

+39.5

 VII72 Redskins

+26.5

VIII73 Dolphins

+35.3

 VIII73 Vikings

+35.5

IX74 Steelers

+4.6

 IX74 Vikings

+28.2

X75 Steelers

+43.9

 X75 Cowboys

+24.1

XI76 Raiders

+33.4

 XI76 Vikings

+34.7

XII77 Cowboys

+37.1

 XII77 Broncos

+18.4

XIII78 Steelers

+29.7

 XIII78 Cowboys

+29.4

XIV79 Steelers

+20.2

 XIV79 Rams

-3.3

XV80 Raiders

+8.2

 XV80 Eagles

+34.4

XVI81 49ers

+27.5

 XVI81 Bengals

+14.4

XVII82 Redskins

+24.1

 XVII82 Dolphins

+15.3

XVIII83 Raiders

+7.0

 XVIII83 Redskins

+27.4

XIX84 49ers

+36.3

 XIX84 Dolphins

+37.1

XX85 Bears

+26.1

 XX85 Patriots

+26.1

XXI86 Giants

+6.4

 XXI86 Broncos

+2.8

XXII87 Redskins

+11.4

 XXII87 Broncos

+14.6

XXIII88 49ers

+11.3

 XXIII88 Bengals

+27.4

XXIV89 49ers

+46.3

 XXIV89 Broncos

+9.6

XXV90 Giants

+28.4

 XXV90 Bills

+25.0

XXVI91 Redskins

+39.1

 XXVI91 Bills

+32.4

XXVII92 Cowboys

+18.9

 XXVII92 Bills

+4.8

XXVIII93 Cowboys

+21.5

 XXVIII93 Bills

+11.0

XXIX94 49ers

+47.3

 XXIX94 Chargers

-0.7

XXX95 Cowboys

+19.4

 XXX95 Steelers

+0.2

XXXI96 Packers

+40.3

 XXXI96 Patriots

+14.3

XXXII97 Broncos

+15.9

 XXXII97 Packers

+32.9

XXXIII98 Broncos

+13.0

 XXXIII98 Falcons

+15.9

XXXIV99 Rams

+42.3

 XXXIV99 Titans

+0.8

XXXV00 Ravens

+10.2

 XXXV00 Giants

+9.4

XXXVI01 Patriots

+16.7

 XXXVI01 Rams

+32.3

XXXVII02 Bucs

+37.9

 XXXVII02 Raiders

+19.9

XXXVIII03 Patriots

+28.1

 XXXVIII03 Panthers

+4.8

XXXIX04 Patriots

+17.2

 XXXIX04 Eagles

+20.6

XL05 Steelers

+15.4

 XL05 Seahawks

+19.4

XLI06 Colts

+20.6

 XLI06 Bears

+7.0

XLII07 Giants

-10.4

 XLII07 Patriots

+37.9

XLIII08 Steelers

+18.5

 XLIII08 Cardinals

-0.8

XLIV09 Saints

+37.4

 XLIV09 Colts

+14.8

XLV10 Packers

+31.7

 XLV10 Steelers

+22.1

XLVI11 Giants

+6.8

 XLVI11 Patriots

+19.6

The threshold for this part of the study ends at a +8.0 Passer Rating Differential. This seems to offer fair amount to allow the good and dominant teams to have a legitimate chance at winning the Super Bowl. Note how there seems to be no certain correlation between the better teams in Passer Rating Differential winning the Super Bowl. Just get in the ballpark, and it seems like you can win as long as you execute in the postseason.

Four in this postseason fail to make the threshold. This includes the AFC North playoff teams in the 2012 Ravens (+5.78) and the 2012 Bengals (+7.26) failing to own a significant advantage in passing efficiency. Both teams are in the middle of the pack on both sides of the football in those passing indicators. Meanwhile, a pair of teams owns a negative Passer Rating Differential.

The 2012 Vikings own a -11.07 Passer Rating Differential, due in large part to the team finishing 25th in Defensive Passer Rating. The 2012 Colts own a -13.71 Passer Rating Differential, putting the team 27th overall in that quality stat category. It seems like those two teams have a long way to go.

 

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