Spreadapedia: Key Point Spread Trends For Week 10 Games

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 09, 2012



In past weeks we've provided 40, 50 or 60 Spreadapedia trends each week that hit 60 percent or better against the spread. 

We thought we'd switch it up a bit this week, and dive a little deeper into a few of the more interesting trends from the most compelling games of the week. 

Let us know what you think: if you like the quick-hit trends for every game instead, shoot us a note. And, of course, we're always open to any kind of suggestions or critiques.

 

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11)

Bill Belichick has made a habit of beating the Buffalo Bills, posting a 22-3 game record, and 16-8-1 record against the spread.

The Patriots may be overvalued home at Foxboro, however. Belichick’s Patriots are 11-1 straight up against the Bills, but only 7-5 ATS.

Belichick has been a double-digit favorite at home against the Bills in five of their 12 matchups.  The Patriots are 2-3 ATS in those five home games.

Take a look at the New England’s team Over/Under, which is currently 30.5. The Patriots have scored 52, 49, 31, 34 and 38 points in their five games against the Buffalo Bills.

 

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1)
The Texans suffered back-to-back against-the-spread losses at the Jets and vs. the Packers. But they have followed up those games with consecutive straight-up and ATS wins at home against the Ravens and Bills.

Both the Texans and Bears enter the game 7-1 on the season, but Houston holds an ATS edge of 6-2 vs. 5-3.

The Texans and Bears have had two common opponents this year. Both teams lost straight up and ATS against Green Bay, and both covered convincingly against the Titans.

Jay Cutler’s Bears actually perform surprisingly well against Quality Opponents (teams .500 or better). Since he arrived in Chicago in 2009, the Bears are 7-5 straight up and ATS at home against these tough teams.

 

Atlanta (-2.5) at New Orleans

The New Orleans Saints are underdogs at home for the 1st time since Week 17 2008. The Atlanta Falcons come into the game the last remaining undefeated team in the league.

But undefeated teams at this point in the season are not usually a great bet. Undefeated teams after In Week 9 are 14-0 straight up while only 7-7 ATS (since 1978).



St. Louis at San Francisco (-11.5)

Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers are ATS monster at home, with a 9-2-1 ATS (10-2 straight) record during the regular season. His team this week is a double-digit home favorite for the fourth time in 13 home games.

Incredibly, the 49ers are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS in those three games.

Jeff Fisher comes into the game with a career 72-59-2 regular season ATS record, and a 5-3 ATS (2-6 SU) record as a double-digit underdog. This is the first time Fisher’s Rams are double-digit underdogs.



N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6.5)

Pete Carroll is 14-7 at home as head coach of the Seahawks and an awesome 15-6 ATS.

This is only the third time Carroll’s Seahawks have been favored by at least 6.5 points.

But they easily won both previous games ATS: 30-13 in Week 14 2011 vs. Rams and 22-10 in Week 7 2010 vs. Arizona.

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