Spit-Polish Finish: CHFF Trifecta Super Bowl Pick
It is amazing how quickly the Super Bowl has arrived. It seems like we were just writing about training camp.
The Trifecta struggled to get going all season. Entering the playoffs, we stated that we needed a really strong run to get this column back in the black and it went 9-2 to date in the NFL playoffs.
We are on the plus side, finally, with a year-to-date record of 30-29-3 (.508) against the spread. Championship week was a great time to go 3-0.
The AFC and NFC games both stayed under as we accurately predicted, and the Seahawks covered the spread in a close game.
As we have outlined each week, the key to long-term success is a disciplined system. The later in the season, the data and information on teams makes it easier to pinpoint mismatches, which is why we have surged to a 9-2 playoff record.
The Trifecta system of 3 picks per week has been our protocol all season. Throughout the season, this column explained “why three picks?” Our answer is that most successful football bettors play one or three games each week. For the Super Bowl this season, we are going to go with a single bet, in an effort to finish the season plus two games in the win column.
On to the Pick:
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Pick: Seahawks +2.5 for 100 Units
Why stop now? Can someone tell us why Seattle is the underdog? We took Seattle against arguably the second best team in the NFL, the 49ers, in the NFC championship game. The Seahawks covered.
The Seahawks are the best team in the league and have been all season long. The NFC West is the best conference in football. SI writer Peter King picks the Broncos and that alone is reason to bet the Seahawks. Seattle will not shut down Peyton Manning. The Broncos offense is that good.
However, they have not been hit like they will be hit play after play by the Seattle D. The Seahawks have a strong special team’s edge.
Russell Wilson is a winner, plain and simple. Everyone talks about the Seattle 12thMan but the Seahawks are 9-2 ATS on the road in their last 11 games, and 8-2 as dogs, which has also covered in 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls.
The Broncos don’t only have Peter King’s vote but also the general public, of which a whopping 71 percent are betting the Omaha horses. The public is often on the wrong horse. Seahawks finish an incredible season by taking care of business, despite going up against the Bronco’s scoring machine.
Trifecta championship week record: 3-0
Trifecta 2013 season record: 30-29-3
The picks in this Trifecta column are not necessarily the same as those of the official CHFF "Real and Spectacular" Picks based upon our Quality Stats. Our goal is to provide you as much information as possible to make educated picks based upon a variety of stats, methods and strategies.
Andrew Miller is the founder of Football Nation.com and an entrepreneur focusing on analytics-driven online businesses. The Wall Street veteran worked for Michael Milken’s Drexel Burnham, and was a senior vice president at Bear Stearns and Smith Barney. Miller then founded CreditCards.com and InsuranceQuotes.com, both sites that used analytics to drive leads in the respective industries. Both businesses were successfully sold within 3 years of their inception. Miller gathered a team of experts who live and breathe football, including Cold, Hard Football Facts, and in 2011 they founded FootballNation.com. He is now all football, all the time: playing high stakes fantasy football and betting on games, using deep analysis through CHFF Insider, trends research, and years of intuition.
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