Shattering first impressions

First impressions are hard to overcome, especially for those sorry souls around your office or job site whose lives are ruled by the chaos of opinion, hearsay and gossip, and not by the enlightened despotism of Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Take, for example, our perception of quarterbacks. The first impression the public had of John Elway was the No. 1 draft pick and quarterbacking prodigy with the quick feet and stereotypical "big arm."

The truth is that Elway spent years in the league completing barely 50 percent of his passes, while throwing nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Yet, fueled by the persistency of this first impression, no one ever doubted he was a great quarterback.

Joe Namath is another example. The first impression the public had of Broadway Joe was the gun-slinging college quarterback who joined the upstart AFL after signing the biggest contract in sports history at the time (a whopping $425,000 deal).

But Namath spent the rest of his career completing just 50 percent of his passes and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Still, fueled by the persistency of his first impression, Namath's name often comes up when people talk about the greatest quarterbacks. It should not.

Tom Brady offers us a look at this phenomenon from the dark side of the moon of expectations. The first impression the public had of Brady was the skinny, unheralded sixth-round draft pick who lucked into his job only after New England's starting quarterback went down. Brady had some immediate success, causing pundits to opine that he must be a "system quarterback" who "plays within himself" and who "doesn't try to do too much."

The truth is quite a bit different. The truth is that when we look at his remarkable individual achievements and unmatched team achievements, no quarterback in modern NFL history has recorded a better first five years in the league than Brady. How do we know? Easy. We simply cast aside impressions and replaced them with Cold, Hard Football Facts.

We compiled all the data from Brady's first five years in the league. We then compared him with all 10 quarterbacks who have won at least one Super Bowl and whose busts now reside in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This list includes Terry Bradshaw, Len Dawson, John Elway, Bob Griese, Joe Montana, Joe Namath, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Johnny Unitas and Steve Young (a 2005 Hall of Fame inductee).

For kicks and giggles, we added three of the most prolific passers in the modern game: Dan Marino, who will enter the Hall of Fame with Young in August; Brett Favre, a Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Famer; and Peyton Manning, who is so prolific that he's already a lock for the Hall of Fame. And, of course, we couldn't leave out three-time Super Bowl champion and potential Hall of Famer Troy Aikman.

By now, it's well known that Brady is the greatest winning quarterback in modern football history. Thanks to the persistency of first impressions, it's less well known that he's one of the most statistically dominant quarterbacks of the Super Bowl era, even when compared to the most elite, most productive and most dominant quarterbacks in the game.

* Won NFL titles in the pre-Super Bowl era (Starr, 3; Unitas, 2) before winning Super Bowls later in their careers (Starr, 2; Unitas, 1); playoff record does not include title game record

We actually began this exercise at the start of the 2004 season, when we looked at Brady's first four years in the NFL to see how he stacked up against the very best quarterbacks in modern history. His team accomplishments, of course, are unmatched. No quarterback has ever gone 9-0 in the playoffs. No quarterback has ever won three titles in just four years on the field or five years in the league. And, of course, no quarterback has ever been on a team that's posted such a remarkable won-loss record (57-14, or .803, since Brady took over in 2001).

But it's interesting to note that Brady compares favorably in numerous statistical categories to the greatest quarterbacks who ever played the game.

Of course, Brady is also:
• No. 1 in championship victories (three)
• No. 1 in postseason appearances (nine)
• No. 1 in postseason victories (nine)
• No. 1 in playoff record (9-0)
• No. 1 in Super Bowl MVP awards (two)

If Brady is a "system quarterback," then that must be some kind of system.