Sexy Santa delivers a dandy Week 15

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 19, 2009

By Kerry J. Byrne

Cold, Hard Football Facts misfit elf

Yes, as you know, we've been very naughty this year. But our tawdry misbehavior didn't stop Sexy Santa from delivering a Pabst Blue-ribbon-wrapped taste of the old NFL that we know and love from our childhood: eleven games this week were one-score affairs – a frothy change of pace in a league that, as recently as Halloween, was setting records for blowouts and for dysfunctional drunken red-nosed misfits at the bottom of the pro football gene pool.

But enough about our family.

There was a little something for everybody this week: five explosive catches by Reggie Wayne, four booming punts by Oakland record setter Shane Lechler, three sacks by unheralded New England linebacker Tully Banta-Cain, two of the most prolific offensive outings in history and one partridge in a pear tree.

Actually, there was a partridge in a pear tree. But we ate him.

The NFL this did week produce one rare oddity: an onside kick late in the fourth quarter ... with a lead! Thank you, Mike Tomlin.

If Ben Roethlisberger hadn't pulled another golden ring of a win from his pocket, Onside KickGate would have wiped 4th-and-2 Gate from the map for most widely criticized decision of 2009.

Alas, it did not: the onside kick did give the Packers an easy score and a 36-30 lead late in the game. We could hear the Peddlers of Tired Old Storylines in the press box sharpening the knives.

But Pittsburgh pulled out a dramatic 37-36 win in one of the best games of the season. If the season ended today, Green Bay would still be in, with Dallas, as the the NFC wildcard teams. The 7-7 defending champs, meanwhile, remain one game out in the wildcard race, behind Baltimore and Denver.

The Broncos somehow remain firmly entrenched in the playoff hunt despite the fact that they've completely disappeared from the public radar screen. If it were up to us, teams that lost at home in December to the Raiders would be banned from the playoffs as long as Al Davis is still in charge in Oakland. Though the Raiders, to their credit, have now won consecutive road games against the Steelers and Broncos. So maybe there is hope in Oaktown.

Saturday night showdown

Is it just us, or does it feel like New Orleans played its Super Bowl back on Nov. 30 against the Patriots?

That game was considered the ultimate imperative game, a chance for the Saints to knock off the team of the decade and prove that their 10-0 record at the time was no fluke. Some called it the most important game in franchise history.

The Saints passed the test with flying colors, humiliating the Patriots 38-17 behind one of the greatest passing days in NFL history.

Since then? New Orleans has been flatter than our sixth-grade girlfriend.

The Saints have eked out a pair of wins over Washington and Atlanta, two sub-standard teams. And, then, of course, came the 24-17 loss at Dallas Saturday night.

The big problem for the Saints? The shutdown pass defense has slowly started to show cracks. It's fallen each of the past four weeks, from No. 1 and a season-best 50.4 Defensive Passer Rating after Week 9 to a 67.4 DPR today. That's a big decline.

Tony Romo, meanwhile, entered Saturday night's game with all the questions about his performances in December. But maybe Brees deserves a little more scrutinity: he's just 16-18 in December games.

Here are a few more stats about Brees from Mark Wald, the Cold, Hard Football Facts Ombudsdouche. The Saints QB in his career is:

26-27 in games decided by 7 points or less
0-3 on Saturdays
12-29 when 'carrying a team' (40-plus attempts)

You don't want to overstate the importance of one loss for an otherwise outstanding and undefeated football team, but the trends are not showing the upward trajectory that champions typically display in December.

The 500-yard day: Football's (rough) equivalent of a perfect game

Ben Roethlsiberger needed the biggest passing day in Steelers history and the first 500-yard afternoon by any NFL QB since Brees in 2006 to pull out a tremendous 37-36 win over the Packers.

Big Ben passed for 503 yards, the last 19 a brilliant strike to Mike Wallace for the game-tying score with no time on the clock. Jeff Reed's extra point capped a wild fourth quarter that offered 35 combined points.

Roethlisberger is just the 10th player in history to top 500 passing yards in a single game and his 503 yards is also the 10th most in a game.

The 10 500-yard passing days in NFL history (ranked by yards)

Player (year)	Oppt.	Comp.	Att.	Pct.	Yards	YPA	TD	INT	Rating	Result
Norm Van Brocklin, Rams (1951)	Yanks	27	41	65.8	554	13.5	5	3	118.1	W 54-14
Warren Moon, Oilers (1990)	Chiefs	27	45	60.0	527	11.7	3	0	123.1	W 27-10
Boomer Esiason, Cardinals (1996)	Redskins	35	59	59.3	522	8.8	3	4	77.1	W 37-34
Dan Marino, Dolphins (1988)	Jets	35	60	58.3	521	8.7	3	5	68.8	L 30-44
Phil Simms, Giants (1985)	Bengals	40	62	64.5	513	8.3	1	2	82.3	L 30-35
Drew Brees, Saints, (2006)	Bengals	37	52	71.2	510	9.8	2	3	91	L 16-31
Vince Ferragamo, L.A. Rams (1982)	Bears	30	46	65.2	509	11.1	3	2	106.2	L 26-34
Y.A. Tittle, Giants, (1962)	Redskins	27	39	69.2	505	12.9	7	0	151.4	W 49-34
Elvis Grbac, Chiefs (2000)	Raiders	39	53	73.6	504	9.5	2	2	99.9	L 31-49
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, 2009	Packers	29	46	63.0	503	10.9	3	0	121.9	W 37-36

Looking at the numbers, it seems that the 500-yard passing day is, loosely speaking, the football equivalent of the perfect game in baseball (with the key exceptions below). Both are extraordinarily rare, in the case of the 500-yard day it happens about once every several years, though the pace has quickened in recent decades.

Baseball has given us just 16 perfect games since 1900, though the pace in baseball is more consistent through the years.

Both the 500-yard day and the perfect game have a flukiness factor to them. The list above includes some Hall of Fame performers. But you'd have to search far and wide to find somebody who knows that Boomer Esiason, Phil Simms, Vince Ferrgamo and Elvis Grbac are on the short list of 500-yard passers.

The list of baseball's perfect-gamers, meanwhile, includes Hall of Fame names like Cy Young and Sandy Koufax. But it also has plenty of journeymen on it, too, most notably Don Larsen. He went just 81-91 in his major league career, but famously threw the only perfect game in a World Series.

We realize there are WAY more games in baseball, so perfect games are much more rare than a 500-yard passing day. But, again, just making a comparison here.

There is one more interesting difference, though: baseball's perfect gamers all won, of course. Football's 500-yarders have had much less success: they're just 5-5, while the last guy to pass for 500 yards and win before Big Ben was Boomer Esiason in 1996.

The struggles for teams whose quarterbacks pass for an an extraordinarily high 500 yards in a game speaks to a long-held CHFF maxim: volume passing stats in pro football mean little, while efficiency passing stats means everything.

The biggest fluke of 2009

Even flukier than the 500-yard passing day was Jerome Harrison's historic rushing effort for Cleveland in its 41-34 win over the Chiefs Sunday.

Harrison rushed 34 times for 286 yards (8.4 YPA) and 3 TD.

It's a big day in the career of any player, even in high school. But it's completely improbable in the pro football career of Harrison, a guy few people outside his own family had heard of before Sunday.

Here are Harrison's year-by-year career numbers before this week's win over KC (all years with Cleveland):

2006 – 20 attempts, 60 yards, 3.0 YPA, 0 TD
2007 – 23 attempts, 142 yards, 6.2 YPA, 0 TD
2008 – 34 attempts, 246 yards, 7.2 YPA, 1 TD
2009 – 88 attempts, 301 yards, 3.4 YPA, 0 TD
Sunday – 34 attempts, 286 yards, 8.4 YPA, 3 TD

Where the hell does Sunday's effort come from when you look at those numbers? We knew the Chiefs had some of the worst Defensive Hogs in football, but there's no precedent maybe this side of Timmy Smith for what Harrison did to the Chiefs on Sunday.

Smith, you might remember, was a rookie in 1987 who had lugged the ball just 29 times that season for 126 yards and 0 touchdowns, before exploding for 204 yards in a Super Bowl win over Denver. But Smith, at least, did give two nice playoff performances before the Super Bowl (29 carries, 138 yards combined).

Here's a look at the five biggest running days in NFL history. Harrison's effort lands him at No. 3 on the list.

Adrian Peterson (2007) - 30 for 296, 9.9 YPA, 3 TD
Jamal Lewis (2003) - 30 for 295 yards, 9.8 YPA, 2 TD
Jerome Harrison (2009) - 34 for 286 yards, 8.4 YPA, 3 TD
Corey Dillon (2000) - 22 for 278 yards, 12.6 YPA, 2 TD
Walter Payton (1977) - 40 for 275 yards, 6.9 YPA, 1 TD

Perhaps the most notable apsect of the list is that the four top rushing seasons have all come this decade, indicating that running numbers are inflating here in the wide open 21st century, along with passing numbers. One way or the other, it's just easier than ever to move the football.

The best Christmas song spoof ever

Is it just us, or is self-centered Cartman a musical genius? "Oh night, when I get presents!"

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NFL Red Zone and the evolution of mankind

As you know, the Cold, Hard Football Facts like to pontificate on a variety of topics that we know little about. This week, we'd like to discuss evolution with you.

Back in the day, humans had to fend for themselves. They hunted and gathered and told their children to get up and change the TV station for them. Life was very primitive back then.

Then came mastery of the grain crops and the remote control. Humans realized they could stay in one place all year to grow their own food and change the TV station. Humans no longer had to move from place to place to acquire food or watch different football games. Life was very comfortable.

Then came delivery pizza and NFL Red Zone. Not only could you eat without ever leaving your house, you no longer even had to burn up precious calories pushing the buttons on the remote control. NFL Red Zone jumps from game to game for you!

With delivery pizza and NFL Red Zone, humans have reached evolutionary perfection: you no longer need to lift a finger to obtain food or watch every NFL game. No wonder why it's so popular.

With a couple of optional CHFF accessories, namely a catheter tube, colostomy bag and an IV drip of beer, you could literally sit motionless from September through February watching football ... as we've proven.

The Favrkings Report

We knew Carolina was a bad match-up for the Vikings. But we never expected the 26-7 beatdown of the NFC North champs.

The Panthers pounded away at Minnesota's overrated run stoppers (40 attempts, 124 yards, 3.1 YPA), with Jonathan Stewart leading the way (25 for 109 and 1 TD), while quarterback Matt Moore produced what was easily the best day of his short career (9.1 YPA, 3 TD, 123.2 rating).

But when the Favrkings play, all eyes are on team namesake BrettFavre, and he underwhelmed for the third straight outing in December.

Here's BrettFavre's combined December stat line:

64 for 102 (62.7%), 691 yards, 6.8 YPA, 3 TD, 4 INT, 76.1 rating

The numbers represent a radical departure from his performances through the end of November.

Minnesota's other big-named offensive weapon was also shut down Sunday night: Adrian Peterson was held to 35 yards on 12 carries and has under-performed even his quarterback here in December:

51 carries for 151 yards, 2.96 YPA and 3 TD

The Cold, Hard Football Facts were the first outlet in the nation to report that Tennessee's Chris Johnson was better than Peterson. A lot of people grumbled, but there can't be too many holdouts left today: Johnson, of course, is on pace to set the single-season yards-from-scrimmage record and on pace to surpass 2,000 yards on the ground (see "quick hits" below).

AP has a produced just three 100-yard days this season and averaged more than 5.0 YPA just four times. He has not surpassed either mark since his 18 for 133 day back on November 15 – against Detroit.

Quick hits

With Green Bay's loss, the Vikings have won consecutive division titles for the first time since 1977-78.

Cleveland's Josh Cribbs returned two kicks for TDs against Kansas City Sunday, to set the career record for kick-return TDs (8). He had shared the record (6) with Dante Hall, Ollie Matson, Mel Gray, Travis Williams and Gale Sayers.

The Patriots, for all their problems, have surrendered a league low three rushing TDs this year.

Three different quarterbacks attempted passes for the Raiders in their 20-19 win over Denver. Only one completed half of them ... and just barely: Charlie Frye (9 of 17, 68 yards), JaMarcus Russell (5 of 11, 47 yards), J.P. "Remember Me?" Losman (0 for 1, 0 yards).

If it were up to us, teams that lose at home to the QB trio of Frye-Russell-Losman would be banned from the playoffs.

The Browns have averaged 39.0 PPG in two games against the Lions and Chiefs; they've averaged 10.1 PPG in their 12 other games.

It's widely considered a down year for the Ravens defense. But after Sunday's dominating 31-7 win over the Bears, Baltimore is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense (225 points 16.1 PG), behind only the Jets (221 points, 15.8 PPG)

Chris Johnson rushed 29 times for 104 yards in Tennessee's 27-24 overtime victory against Miami.

He joins LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Deuce, McAllister, Fred Taylor, Walter Payton, Marcus Allen and Barry Sanders as the only players in history with nine consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts. Allen and Sanders went on to piece together 11 and 14 consecutive century days, respectively.

CJ needs 270 yards over Tennessee's final two games to become the sixth 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history. With 2,176 yards from scrimmage, he's just 253 yards shy of Marshall Faulk's record 2,429 yards from scrimmage set in 1999.

Philip Rivers is 17-0 as a starting quarterback in December, as San Diego wrapped up its fourth straight AFC West title with a dramatic 27-24 win over the Bengals.

The Chargers have won nine straight since their 2-3 start and with only the Titans and Redskins remaining on the schedule, 13 wins is a very real possibility. San Diego has won 13 or more games in a season only once in its 50-year history, with a 14-2 season in 2006, the first for Rivers as a starter.

Patriots QB Tom Brady, a potential Rivers playoff opponent, is now 28-5 in December in the wake of New England's 17-10 win over Buffalo. Brady produced one of his worst efforts of the season (11 of 23, 115 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 59.1 rating) but was buoyed by another strong performance from New England's defense. The Patriots rank third this year in scoring defense (17.4 PPG), tied with Cincinnati.

If we including January and February games, Brady's Patriots are 44-9 (.830) in games played from December 1 onward.

The Bills continue to boast the No. 1 pass defense in football after stifling the New England air attack (59.7 Defensive Passer Rating with a league-leading 26 picks). But without an offense, Buffalo's Super Bowl-caliber defense has produced just a 5-9 record this season.

The 49ers did not convert a single third down (0 for 11) in their 27-13 loss at Philadelphia. But they went 3 for 4 on fourth downs.

The Cardinals barely held on for a 24-17 win over the Lions. But coupled with San Francisco's loss, Arizona has clinched its second straight division title for just the third time in franchise history (since 1920).

Don Coryell's St. Louis Cardinals won the old NFC East in 1974 and 1975. Jimmy Conzelman's Chicago Cardinals won the NFL's West division in 1947 (the franchise's only championship season) and 1948.

Punter Shane Lechler is the most productive player on the Oakland roster. He booted four kicks against Denver Sunday for a week-leading 53.8 yards per boot average. The afternoon bosted his average this year to 51.5 yards per punt, easily leading the NFL once again for pro football's all-time leader. San Francisco's Andy Lee is second on the list (47.9 YPP). It's a statistical blowout.

More importantly for stat-loving football fans, Lechler's average this year puts him on pace to surpass CHFF favorite and the Pigskin Messiah, Sammy Baugh, for the single-season record (51.4 in 1940).

Lechler already owned the career record for punting average entering this season (46.8). He's improved that mark to 47.3 YPP this year.

CHFF, as usual, WAY ahead of the 'pundits'

Whether it's CJ over AP or the craft of the punt, CHFF is way ahead of the sports-reporting competition. Here are a few headlines from around the sport-o-sphere this year:

"We live in the Golden Age of Punting" – CHFF, Aug. 17, 2009

"Welcome to the Golden Age of Punting" – ESPN, Nov. 3, 2009

"Statistics suggest that this is the golden age of NFL punting" – Sports Illustrated, print issue of Dec. 21, 2009

Eagles leap past Packers on all-important Defensive Hog Index

Philly and Green Bay have battled back and forth for the top spot on the all-important Defensive Hog Index for the past several weeks.

The Eagles are back in the No. 1 position this week, after their 27-13 beat down of San Francisco. The 49ers actually ran well: 18 attempts for 107 yards (5.9 YPA). But Alex Smith was sacked three times, while his offense failed to convert a single third down (0 for 11). Philly is No. 1 this year in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 32.6 percent of their attempts.

Green Bay's Defensive Hogs played fairly well Sunday: they sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times in their 37-36 loss to the Steelers Sunday. The problem is they needed one more on Pittsburgh's final drive and didn't get it.

Here's the top five in DHI right now after Sunday's action (new Quality Stats will be published Tuesday morning, after the MNF game):

No. 1 -- Philadelphia

No. 2 -- Green Bay

No. 3 -- Miami

No. 4 -- Minnesota

No. 5 -- Baltimore

If the season ended today, four of the top five Defensive Hogs would be in the playoffs.

Tough year for two all-time receiving legends

The Patriots-Bills game Sunday gave us a look at two of the great touchdown-making machines in history.

New England's Randy Moss entered the game with 144 career touchdown catches; Buffalo's Terrell Owens had 143. Only Jerry Rice, of course, had caught more (197).

Moss added one more to his total, with a brilliant 13-yard pitch and catch from Tom Brady. Owens caught just 2 passes for 20 yards.

It's been a tough season for both receiving legends. Boston fans and media were ready to run Moss out of town after his recent performances this season. Remember, these are the same people who tried to run Ted Williams, Bill Russell and Wade Boggs out of town, too.

Owens, meanwhile, has disappeared on a team with no real quarterback threat, and will probably finish the year with the least productive season since his rookie campaign. As of now, he's caught 47 passes for 725 yards and 4 TDs.

Rex Ryan's defense

We criticized it as overrated early in the year, but Rex Ryan's defense with the Jets is living up to the hype and threatens to make the J-Men a dangerous gang in the years ahead. Most notably, they're No. 1 in the NFL this year in scoring D (221 points allowed).

Most impressively, though, the Jets defense had gone 33 possessions without surrendering a touchdown, an eternity in today's high-scoring NFL, before Matt Ryan connected with Tony Gonzalez (remember him?) for the game-winning score in Atlanta's 10-7 victory over the Jets.

In fact, the Jets defense has been spectacular since the team fell to the Patriots, 31-14, back on Nov. 22.

The Jets have surrendered just 32 points in the four games since that day. The 53 possessions against them in those four games have ended this way:

Missed field goals – 1

Touchdowns – 2

Stopped on downs – 3

End of half/end of game – 4

Field goals – 6

Turnovers – 9

Punts – 28

Imagine how good the Jets would be if they had a quarterback.

CHFF's real and spectacular picks

Through the Sunday games, our real and spectacular picks are 8-7 straight up and 8-7 against the spread.

It's a poor showing picking winners, but we'll live with the mark ATS. If the Redskins cover Monday night against the Giants, it will give us our 12th winning week in 15 opportunties this season.

By Kerry Byrne

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