A sad day for the trolls ... and for Pittsburgh

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Feb 04, 2006

It's a sad day for the lonely trolls of Cold, Hard Football Facts.com. It's the last day for at least seven whole agonizing months in which we'll break down a football game and make our typically ballsy and habitually accurate pigskin predictions.

We will, of course, drown our sorrows in a variety of adult beverages and Buffalo wings, maybe even a Roethlisburger or two, while watching the last sad hours tick off the pigskin clock for the 2005-06 season. We may bide our time in the offseason by calculating Cold, Hard Football Facts for our Strat-O-Matic summer league – think of it as Dungeons & Dragons for football shut-ins – but that's a story for another day.

In the meantime, the Cold, Hard Football Facts have spoken load and clear on the topic of Super Bowl XL between Seattle and Pittsburgh: The NFC's underdog Seahawks will not only cover the spread, they will win outright over the AFC's favored Steelers.

Here are a few thousand words and several graphs, charts, lists and bit-sized chicken nuggets of data to explain why. Chew on them slowly. It will be several long months before you get to gourge on a football feast like this again. Unless, of course, you're into the Strat-O-Matic thing with us.

The big picture

An overview of each team's performances on offense and defense pretty much confirms what we already know: Seattle has a better offense. Pittsburgh has a better defense.

Here's how the two teams stacked up over the course of the season in 10 major offensive and defensive categories.

	SEATTLE		PITTSBURGH
Category	Total	Rank	Total	Rank
Total offense	369.7 YPG	2	321.8 YPG	16
Scoring offense	28.2 PPG	1	24.3 PPG	9
Rush offense	153.6 YPG	3	138.9 YPG	5
Pass offense	216.1 YPG	13	182.9 YPG	24
Offense (per play)	5.8	t-1	5.4	t-8
Total defense	316.8	17	284.0	4
Scoring defense	16.9 PPG	7	16.1 PPG	3
Rush defense	94.4 YPG	5	86.0 YPG	3
Pass defense	222.4 YPG	25	198.0	16
Defense (per play)	4.9	t-10	4.6	t-2

Generally speaking, Seattle ranked higher in most major categories. The main reason is that Seattle was more dominant in its core strength – offense – than Pittsburgh was at its core strength – defense. (Click here to see how they rank relative to the competition they faced throughout the season.)

But defense wins championships – usually

Two years ago, the Cold, Hard Football Facts proved true an age-old football aphorism – "defense wins championships." That's good news for Pittsburgh, which enters Super Bowl XL with the better scoring defense.

The Steelers surrendered 258 points in 2005 (16.1 PPG). The Seahawks surrendered 271 points (16.9 PPG).

Teams with the better scoring defense are 26-8 in Super Bowls since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.
Teams with the better scoring defense are 28-10 in all Super Bowls.

(New England and Philly each gave up 260 points last year, hence the one-game discrepancy between our numbers – 38 games – and the actual number of Super Bowls, 39).

However, when we take the postseason into consideration, there is virtually no difference between the quality of the two defenses. The Seattle defense has stiffened in the postseason, while the Pittsburgh defense has performed slightly below its season-long average. Including playoffs:

Pittsburgh has surrendered 16.3 PPG.
Seattle has surrendered 16.4 PPG.

Among those eight teams in the post-merger NFL who have won Super Bowls despite an inferior defense, six possessed a superior offense. Seattle had the best offense in football in 2005.

The Seahawks scored 452 points (28.2 PPG).
The Steelers scored 389 points (24.3 PPG).

The Pittsburgh offense has performed better in the postseason than it did in the regular season. The Seattle offense scored slightly below its regular-season rate. So, the gap between offenses is not as wide when we take into consideration playoff games, but the numbers are still clearly in Seattle's favor.

Seattle has scored 28.1 PPG including the playoffs.
Pittsburgh has scored 25.0 PPG including the playoffs.

Again, Seattle's core strength – offense – was more dominant than Pittsburgh's core strength – defense.

Put another way, Seattle was better on offense (relative to the rest of the league) than Pittsburgh was on defense.

Of course, these absolute numbers deserve further consideration. So we took them all the way to the precipice of pigskin analysis. We looked at every single game each team has played and how their respective offensive and defensive units stacked up relative to the strength of their competition. Again, it supported this trend we've seen in absolute terms: Seattle's offense played better this season than Pittsburgh's offense, even when we take into consideration the quality of every opponent.

There was little difference, however, in the performance of the two defenses, even when the quality of competition is taken into consideration.

There are also a number of disturbing trends for Pittsburgh that the Cold, Hard Football Facts believe tip the scales in Seattle's favor.

Pittsburgh can't run the ball

Lost amid the excitement of Pittsburgh's postseason performance is the fact that its vaunted running game has been MIA in the playoffs.

The Steelers ran the ball with great frequency in 2005. In fact, they ranked No. 1 in the NFL with 34.3 rush attempts per game. However, they did not run with great productivity. The Steelers averaged 4.05 yards per rush attempt in 2005, 12th in the NFL.

That plodding running attack has ground to a halt against playoff defenses. Pittsburgh averaged:

4.2 yards per attempt against Cincy (34 attempts for 144 yards)*
2.7 yards per attempt against Indy (42 attempts, 112 yards)
2.7 yards per attempt against Denver (33 attempts, 90 yards)
3.2 yards per attempt in the playoffs (109 attempts, 346 yards)

*The Bengals allowed 4.3 yards per rush attempt in 2005. Only five teams were worse.

Pittsburgh can't stop the run

The Steelers allowed just 86.0 rush yards per game this season, good enough for 3rd in the NFL. They also surrendered just 3.4 yards per attempt, which led the league. However, Pittsburgh has struggled to stop top backs in the playoffs:

Cincy's Rudi Johnson averaged 4.3 yards per attempt (13 attempts for 56 yards).
Indy's Edgerrin James averaged 4.3 yards per attempt (13 attempts for 56 yards).
Denver's Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell combo averaged 4.8 yards per attempt (14 attempts for 67 yards).

That's bad news with Shaun Alexander stepping up to the plate for Seattle in Super Bowl XL. Alexander led the NFL in rushing in 2005 (1,880 yards), was second in average per attempt (5.1 yards) and set a single-season NFL touchdown record this year (28, with 27 rush TDs).

Pittsburgh's playoff opponents put up these overall numbers on the ground:

Cincy averaged 4.2 yards per attempt (20 attempts for 84 yards).
Indy averaged 4.1 yards per attempt (14 attempts for 58 yards).
Denver averaged 4.6 yards per attempt (21 attempts for 97 yards).

Seattle is dominant against the run

The Seahawks, meanwhile, have been absolutely dominant against the run in recent weeks. Here's how the Seattle run defense stacks up in its last three meaningful games – playoff wins over Carolina and Washington and a top-seed-clinching win over Indy in Week 16 (Seattle rested many of its starters in a season-ending 23-17 loss to Green Bay):

Indy averaged 1.9 yards per attempt (23 attempts for 43 yards).
Washington averaged 2.4 yards per attempt (25 attempts for 59 yards).
Carolina averaged 3.0 yards per attempt (12 attempts for 36 yards).
Seattle's last three meaningful opponents averaged 2.3 yards per attempt (60 attempts for 138 yards).

Seattle can run with great success

The Seahawks averaged 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season, second in the NFL (much better than Pittsburgh's 4.0 yards per attempt, 12th in the NFL).

The Seattle offense, however, has simply pounded away on the ground with great success against those last three meaningful opponents. Seattle averaged:

5.8 yards per attempt against Indy (30 attempts for 173 yards)
3.6 yards per attempt against Washington (33 attempts for 119 yards)*
3.7 yards per attempt against Carolina (51 attempts for 190 yards)
4.2 yards per attempt against its last three meaningful opponents (114 attempts for 482 yards)

*The Seahawks played most of the game without Alexander.

So it's all up to Big Ben

These numbers tell us three things about Super Bowl XL:

Pittsburgh will probably have trouble running the ball against Seattle.
Seattle should be able run the ball with a fair amount of success.
Success for Pittsburgh rests upon the shoulders of second-year quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.

That's encouraging news in one respect. After all, Roethlisberger is in the midst of the best postseason by a Pittsburgh quarterback in franchise history.

But putting the ball in Roethlisberger's hand certainly has the chance to submarine Pittsburgh's Super Bowl effort. Here's why:

Seattle led the league this year with 50 sacks
Roethlisberger gets sacked frequently. Despite his reputation as a mobile quarterback, he's sacked once every 11.7 pass attempts. Compare that with Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck, who is sacked once every 18.7 pass attempts.
Roethlisberger is intercepted frequently. Again, Roethlisberger has a reputation for being careful with the football, and he has been careful in the playoffs (1 INT in 72 attempts). But over the course of the 2005 season, he was picked off once every 29.8 pass attempts. Compare that with Hasselbeck, who was picked off once every 49.9 pass attempts.

Give the edge to Hasselbeck

Seattle seems to have the advantage on the ground. They also have the advantage at quarterback. As noted, Hasselbeck is sacked and interecepted far less often than Roethlisberger.

Hasselbeck has a better supporting cast in the form of a superior ground game, and he has simply put up better numbers. Hasselbeck has topped 100 for passer rating in each of his last six games, while posting an average passer rating of 121.6 over that stretch.

He's thrown 12 TDs to just 1 INT in those six games. Hasselbeck was last intercepted nearly two months ago – back in a 41-3 win over San Francisco on Dec. 11.

Roethlisberger was last intercepted in the 21-18 divisional round win over Indy on Jan 15.

The turnover battle

Of course, nothing can turn a game around like turnovers, and interceptions in particular. As we noted early in the postseason, INTs are the single most important factor in playoff football. And, as we noted here today, Roethlisberger seems far more likely to throw INTs than Hasselbeck.

But interestingly, neither Super Bowl defense was particularly adept at forcing turnovers this year.

Seattle intercepted 16 passes this season (tied for 14th in the league).
Pittsburgh intercepted 15 passes this season (tied for 19th).
Seattle forced 27 total takeaways (tied for 18th).
Pittsburgh forced 30 total takeaways (tied for 11th).
Seattle was +10 in turnover margin (7th).
Pittsburgh was +7 in turnover margin (tied for 9th).

Super Bowl experience

There are few players with Super Bowl experience on either team. But, as we noted earlier this week, there will be one group at Ford Field with a distinct advantage in Super Bowl expereience: Seattle's coaching staff.

Seattle's staff has won 15 Super Bowl rings in 21 Super Bowl appearances.
Seattle defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes leads the group, with five Super Bowl championships during his time as an assistant with San Francisco.
Pittsburgh's staff has won four Super Bowl rings in 12 Super Bowl appearances.
Those four rings all belong to running backs coach Dick Hoak, who won them as a Pittsburgh assistant back in the 1970s.

It's another clear advantage for Seattle.

A game of statistical inches

Super Bowl XL appears to be a game of statistical inches. At the end of the day, we're giving the nod to the team that appears better-equipped to run the ball, to stop the run, to pass the ball effectively and to commit fewer turnovers – and the team with the most experience on the sidelines.

That team is Seattle. The Seahawks beat the Steelers, 26-20.

By Kerry Byrne

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