Rusher Rating: Breaking down Tim Tebow's ground attack

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 07, 2011

By Ken Crippen
Pro Football Researchers Association

We here at CHFF thought we should take a look at Tim Tebow’s Rusher Rating and break it down for various circumstances. First, let’s take a look at his overall rusher rating for the season:

Season	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Overall	82	468	5.71	3	2	104.55
As a Starter	75	431	5.75	2	2	94.98
As a Substitute	7	37	5.29	1	0	134.56

Now, let’s see how he has done in each game this season. Obviously, he has relied more on his running abilities as the season has progressed. Why? Because it has been very effective.

Season	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
At Green Bay Packers	1	-1	-1.00	0	0	52.78
San Diego	6	38	6.33	1	0	140.31
At Miami Dolphins	9	59	6.56	0	0	88.75
DetroitLions	10	63	6.30	0	1	39.57
@ Oakland Raiders	13	118	9.08	0	0	102.58
@ Kansas City	9	43	4.78	1	0	131.77
New York Jets	8	68	8.50	1	0	152.19
@ San Diego	22	67	3.05	0	1	47.77
@ Minnesota	4	13	3.25	0	0	70.61

The first two games listed (at Green Bay and versus San Diego), Tebow came in relief of Kyle Orton. The true indication comes in the games that followed, where he was a starter. The Broncos lost one game with Tebow as a starter, and he had a Rusher Rating of 39.57 in that game against the Detroit Lions. In his wins, he had a Rusher Rating of 88.75, 102.58, 131.77 and 152.19. The only anomalies are the latest wins over the San Diego Chargers and the Minnesota Vikings, where he had a Rusher Rating of 47.77 and 70.61 respectively. Overall, Tebow has a Rusher Rating of 104.55. In his one loss as a starter this season, he had a Rusher Rating of 39.57.

	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Running Lane
Left Sideline	16	115	7.19	1	0	144.99
Left Side	6	34	5.67	1	0	136.65
Middle	30	119	3.97	1	2	71.95
Right Side	10	83	8.30	0	0	98.32
Right Sideline	14	127	9.07	0	0	102.55

Attempts
1 through 10	67	403	6.01	3	2	110.82
11 through 20	13	63	4.85	0	0	79.37
21 through 30	2	2	1.00	0	0	58.26

Field Position
Own 1-20	12	86	7.17	0	1	52.29
Own 21-50	41	233	5.68	0	1	72.31
Opponent 49-20	22	117	5.32	1	0	121.86
Redzone	7	32	4.57	2	0	130.64

Half
1st	31	170	5.48	1	0	111.18
2nd	45	281	6.24	2	2	104.82
Last 2 Minutes of Half	13	69	5.31	1	0	134.68

Quarter
1st	13	85	6.54	1	0	141.43
2nd	18	85	4.72	0	0	78.69
3rd	15	89	5.93	0	2	32.56
4th	30	192	6.40	2	0	140.67
Overtime	6	17	2.83	0	0	68.32

As shown by the table below, Tebow is most effective when his team is behind. When they are losing or are tied, his rushing ability get his team back into the game and positioned for victory.

Point Differential	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
When Winning	14	74	5.29	0	0	81.78
When Losing	48	331	6.90	2	2	107.28
When Tied	20	63	3.15	1	0	113.95

Winning by 15-21 Points	3	19	6.33	0	0	87.53
Winning by 1-7 Points	11	55	5.00	0	0	80.21
Losing by 1-7 Points	27	179	6.63	1	1	103.97
Losing by 15-21 Points	15	104	6.93	1	1	111.75

Keep in mind when looking at the information below that in the losses, Tebow was only the starter in one of those games. As a starter, Tebow has a Rusher Rating of 39.57 in losses this season.

Margin of Victory	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Wins	65	368	5.66	2	1	103.50
Losses	17	100	5.88	1	1	108.58

Win by 1-7 Points	58	288	4.97	3	1	117.19
Win by 8-14 Points	13	118	9.08	0	0	102.58
Win by 15+ Points	11	62	5.64	0	0	83.70

Finally, let’s break down Tebow’s rushing by down and distance:

Down and Distance	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
1^st Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
To Go: 3-7 Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
To Go: 8-10 Yards	30	175	5.83	0	0	84.79
To Go: 11+ Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
2^nd Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	5	36	7.20	0	0	92.28
To Go: 3-7 Yards	10	71	7.10	1	1	96.74
To Go: 8-10 Yards	8	56	7.00	1	0	143.96
To Go: 11+ Yards	8	52	6.50	0	1	28.72
3^rd Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	4	13	3.25	0	0	70.61
To Go: 3-7 Yards	10	49	4.90	1	0	132.44
To Go: 8-10 Yards	2	5	2.50	0	0	66.50
To Go: 11+ Yards	5	11	2.20	0	0	64.85
4^th Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
To Go: 3-7 Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
To Go: 8-10 Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a
To Go: 11+ Yards	0	0	0.00	0	0	n/a

THE WEEK THAT WAS

Marshawn Lynch led all Week 13 running backs with a 142.47 Rusher Rating. His 22 carries for 148 yards and two scores gave him a slight edge over Chris Johnson of Tennessee. Johnson, who has struggled for the bulk of the season, put together a quality performance for the second-consecutive week. His Rusher Rating of 142.06 put him in second place for the week. Ricky Williams rounded out the top three with a 131.62 Rusher Rating.

Here are the top 10 rushers of week 13 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	22	148	6.73	2	0	142.47
Chris Johnson – TEN	23	153	6.65	2	0	142.06
Ricky Williams – BAL	16	76	4.75	1	0	131.62
LeSean McCoy – PHI	17	84	4.94	1	0	131.52
Shonn Greene – NYJ	22	88	4.00	3	0	127.50
Rashard Mendenhall – PIT	16	60	3.75	2	0	126.13
Mark Ingram – NO	16	54	3.38	1	0	124.07
Ray Rice – BAL	29	204	7.03	1	0	121.64
Reggie Bush – MIA	22	100	4.55	1	0	117.62
Chris Wells – ARI	20	67	3.35	1	0	115.05

THE TOP 10

LeSean McCoy has held the first or second spot all season on overall Rusher Rating. This week is no different as he still holds a lead over the injured Adrian Peterson. Baltimore’s Ray Rice is a distant third.

Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 175 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI	215	1,134	5.27	12	0	130.71
Adrian Peterson – MIN	186	872	4.69	11	1	127.84
Ray Rice – BAL	208	926	4.45	9	1	112.89
Chris Wells – ARI	201	916	4.56	9	4	107.58
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	202	854	4.23	8	3	103.64
Arian Foster – HOU	224	916	4.09	8	2	102.30
Michael Turner – ATL	233	992	4.26	8	3	100.13
Shonn Greene – NYJ	183	739	4.04	5	1	96.31
Cedric Benson – CIN	201	792	3.94	5	0	96.23
Steven Jackson – STL	182	832	4.57	4	1	94.53

REAL RUNNING BACK RATING

Looking at the season leaders (based on Rusher Rating) through Week 13 of the NFL regular season (minimum 175 attempts) we have the following (Listed by Real Running Back Rating):

Player	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD	Rusher Rating	Real RB Rating	Diff.
LeSean McCoy – PHI	42	277	3	130.71	114.39	-16.32
Adrian Peterson – MIN	16	125	1	127.84	111.32	-16.52
Arian Foster – HOU	38	469	2	102.30	99.33	-2.97
Ray Rice – BAL	56	547	2	112.89	95.59	-17.30
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	20	170	1	103.64	93.50	-10.14
Steven Jackson – STL	26	151	1	94.53	78.24	-16.29
Michael Turner – ATL	11	128	0	100.13	77.48	-22.65
Chris Wells – ARI	6	25	0	107.58	70.89	-36.69
Shonn Greene – NYJ	23	133	0	96.31	66.53	-29.78
Cedric Benson – CIN	10	53	0	96.23	65.59	-30.64

Of the top ten running backs, Foster still shows the least drop-off when factoring in receiving. However, McCoy has the overall lead in Real Running Back Rating, with 114.39.

TEAM DIFFERENTIAL

San Francisco still retains the top spot in Rusher Rating Differential. Led by the fact that they have yet to give up a rushing touchdown, they are by far the most efficient rushing defense. Baltimore was able to move back into the second-place spot and Minnesota rounded out the top three.

It is no surprise that Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Cleveland were the bottom four teams. They have been struggling all year.

Here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:

Team	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Rusher Rating Differential
San Francisco 49ers	370	92.10	261	56.25	35.85
Baltimore Ravens	339	99.11	317	74.26	24.85
Minnesota Vikings	330	112.68	331	92.97	19.71
Carolina Panthers	333	125.76	344	106.69	19.07
Miami Dolphins	351	87.75	303	69.10	18.65
New Orleans Saints	309	112.90	278	96.30	16.60
Houston Texans	432	99.88	261	84.85	14.95
Tennessee Titans	293	87.62	343	78.98	8.64
New England Patriots	322	103.21	292	94.67	8.54
Atlanta Falcons	338	96.67	293	88.82	7.85
Chicago Bears	320	96.06	269	89.40	6.66
San Diego Chargers	319	95.75	367	89.24	6.51
Seattle Seahawks	319	92.79	340	86.68	6.11
Pittsburgh Steelers	323	97.07	288	91.56	5.51
Philadelphia Eagles	340	106.92	313	103.36	3.56
Denver Broncos	399	86.02	356	83.51	2.51
New York Jets	322	91.67	345	91.24	0.43
Green Bay Packers	308	94.40	258	97.55	-3.15
New York Giants	305	96.25	330	101.11	-4.86
Detroit Lions	278	92.08	312	97.07	-4.99
Arizona Cardinals	293	97.41	357	102.97	-5.56
Cincinnati Bengals	334	89.62	323	96.15	-6.53
Oakland Raiders	366	102.51	326	109.25	-6.74
Washington Redskins	278	90.45	343	99.11	-8.65
Dallas Cowboys	308	77.87	284	90.98	-13.11
St. Louis Rams	293	78.76	379	92.20	-13.44
Buffalo Bills	304	90.59	333	105.16	-14.57
Kansas City Chiefs	367	75.09	376	90.05	-14.96
Indianapolis Colts	278	88.02	418	107.76	-19.74
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	276	86.98	359	109.68	-22.70
Jacksonville Jaguars	374	70.24	329	94.53	-24.29
Cleveland Browns	316	65.51	409	93.92	-28.41

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated

Here is how each component is calculated:

Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]

Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]

Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]

Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:

Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)

How the Real Running Back Rating is Calculated

Now, we look at the Real Running Back Rating. Here are the updated equations with the receiving components:

Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]

Percentage of TDs per Carry (RUSHTD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]

Average Yards Gained per Reception (REC) = [Receiving Yards/(9*Receptions)]

Percentage of TDs per Reception (RECTD) = [(27.5*Touchdowns)/Receptions]

Percentage of Fumbles per Touch (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/(Rushes + Receptions))]

Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 yields:

Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (RUSHTD) + (REC) + (RECTD) + (F)] * (100/7.5)

Ken Crippen is the executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to preserving football history.You can follow him on Twitter: @KenCrippen.

By Ken Crippen

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