Real and Spectacular: Uncle CHFF Wins BIG Again in 2013

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Feb 13, 2014



Legendary "Seinfeld" sitcom scene featuring Teri Hatcher's bosom has long been a metaphor for our CHFF Insider picks.

 

A scorching postseason for each of our portfolios of picks concluded with a resounding 43-8 upset victory by the Seattle Seahawks over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

It was a perfect ending for what we called the “statistically predestined” champion Seahawks. It was also a perfect ending for the Mighty Cold, Hard Football Facts that validated once again the power of our Quality Stats.

We picked Seattle to win the Super Bowl back in August. And we picked them to win outright over the favored Broncos in the Super Bowl with our Real and Spectacular Pick at CHFF Insider.

We've picked every NFL game against the spread for five years, with real and spectacular results year after year, especially late in the season.

In fact, it would have been something close to a statistical miracle for the Broncos to beat a Seattle.

Denver got the sexy headlines and was the public favorite. But Seattle was superior in all those indicators we pioneered that boast the highest correlations to victory.

Bottom line: don’t listen to the pigskin “pundits” when they tongue-swab the latest sexy high-scoring team. Listen instead to good Ol’ Uncle CHFF. He’ll always set you straight.

The season was not without its struggles. Our flagship Real and Spectacular picks bumbled badly out of the gate, leading to the worst season in our history.

But our spectacular across-the-board performance over the second half of the season and into the postseason provided incredible validation of our methodology, our Quality Stats and our system of picking winners and losers in pro football.

Bottom line: if you follow the Mighty Cold, Hard Football Facts, you outsmart the market year after year. And. You. Make. Money.

 

Powerful Late-Season Results

We offered CHFF Insiders four portfolios of picks in the regular season and three in the postseason. All three of our portfolios of picks produced money-making results in the 2013 playoffs.

Our flagship Real and Spectacular Picks, meanwhile, produced big money-making performances late in the year here in 2013 and also over the five-year long haul of their existence.

The performances truly live up to the “spectacular” billing. Here are some key performances for our flagship picks:

  • 66-48-6 (.579) ATS Week 11 through the Super Bowl (2013)
  • 29-13-1 (.690) ATS Week 16 through the Super Bowl (2013)
  • 137-76-2 (.643) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2009-2013)
  • 35-19-1 (.648) ATS all time in the postseason (2009-2013)
  • 86-41-2 (.677) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2011-2013)
  • 21-11-1 (.656) ATS in the last three postseasons (2011-2013)

We’ve known for some time that our Quality Stats grow more valid as we get later in the season. And we now have five seasons of proof.

The late-season surge here in 2013 is part of a long-term trend of big-money-making late-year success dating back to 2009, when we began picking every game, every week, both straight up and ATS.

You can see our performance every week from 2009 to 2012 documented here; and every week’s performance here in 2013 documented below.

You can look up every individual pick from 2010 through 2013 by clicking the "All Stats" button on the NAV bar here at CHFF Insider. You can also find there our week-by-week Quality Stats if you wanted to see where, say, Denver's Passer Rating Differential stood in Week 14 2011. Our individual picks in 2009 can be found with a little digging in our main homesite archive

 

Super Bowl Week in Review

Our Real and Spectacular Pick went 1-0 straight up and 1-0 ATS – We didn’t expect Seattle to win as easily as it did. But we said it loud and proud here in print and on radio and TV coast to coast that the Seahawks were the superior team and would win the game.

Our pre-season Super Bowl favorites came through, winning 43-8.

We ended the 2013 postseason with a record of 6-4-1 (.600). It was actually an off-year for us. As noted above, we’ve gone 35-19-1 (.648) ATS in the postseason over our entire history (2009-2013).

 

The King of Props went 4-2 with his Super Bowl plays – the results were fairly consistent with the King’s royal performance all year long.

He went 12-6 (.667) in the postseason and 44-23-1 (.657) in the regular season. Basically, the King of Props provided two winners for every loser over the course of the entire season, making big money in the process.

See each of his Super Bowl results here.

The King of Props is a scorching 56-29-1 (.659) in 2013, and over the second half of the year produced an electrifying record of 36-15 (.706), since Week 9.

 

The CHFF Trifecta went 1-0 – The CHFF Trifecta offered only one play in the Super Bowl instead of its normal three picks for obvious reasons.

But Seattle +2.5 was an easy winner and concluded an incredible red-hot streak down the stretch and in in the postseason for the CHFF Trifecta.

The Trifecta went 10-2 (.833) in the postseason and 31-29-3 (.517) overall in 2013.

 

The Intelligence Index did not offer any postseason picks – with largely only smart teams advancing to the playoffs, there are  few opportunities to find those “Mental Mismatches” that served us and CHFF Insiders so well all season.

But as we noted here recently, winning in the NFL is almost always a matter of Brains Over Brawn.

The Intelligence Index closed its debut season of “Mental Mismatches” with a record of 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS.

 

Final 2013 Week by Week Results 

Super Bowl Real and Spectacular Pick

Seattle vs. Denver (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 26, Denver 24

Final Score: Seattle 43, Denver 8

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS win (1-0)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 10-5 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 13 – 9-7 straight up; 5-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 14 – 13-3 straight up; 9-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 15 – 8-8 straight up; 8-7-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 16 – 11-5 straight up; 11-5 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 17 – 13-3 straight up; 12-4 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Wildcard – 1-3 straight up; 3-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Divisional – 3-1 straight up; 1-2-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Conference – 1-1 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Super Bowl – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Final 2013 regular season – 162-93-1 (.635) straight up; 113-134-9 (.457) ATS

2013 postseason – 6-5 straight up (.500); 6-4-1 (.600) ATS

Total 2013 season – 168-98-1 (.632) straight up; 119-138-10 (.463) ATS

 

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-1-1

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props Week 13 – 3-1

King of Props Week 14 – 4-0

King of Props Week 15 – 2-2

King of Props Week 16 – 2-1

King of Props Week 17 – 1-1

King of Props Wildcard – 2-2

King of Props Divisional – 3-1

King of Props Conference – 3-1

King of Props Super Bowl – 4-2

Final 2013 regular season – 44-23-1 (.657)

2013 postseason – 12-6 (.667)

Total 2013 season – 56-29-1 (.659)

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 13 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 14 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 15 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 16 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 17 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Postseason – no picks

Final 2013 regular season – 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 13 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 14 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 15 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 16 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 17 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Wildcard – 4-1

CHFF Trifecta Divisional – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Conference – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Super Bowl – 1-0

Final 2013 regular season – 21-27-3 (.438)

2013 postseason – 10-2 (.833)

Total 2013 season – 31-29-3 (.517)


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