A Quality new Quality Stat: Passer Rating Differential

 

Simple concept: We look at the passer rating of each team's offense, and subtract its Defensive Passer Rating (which is already a long-time and effective Quality Stat).

 

We believe PRD is going to be a very, very telling indicator of success. The early results after Week 2 are quite enlightening(the entire chart is below);

 

The Saints are not only winging the ball all over the place behind the record-setting pace of Drew Brees – they're passing quite effectively, as evident by the spectacular and league-leading 132.9 Offensive Passer Rating. But, just as importantly, they're playing very well on pass defense – much better than last year – with a league-leading 53.39 Defensive Passer Rating. The Saints easily lead the league with a +79.5 Passer Rating Differential. The Giants (+45.2) and Colts (+45.0) rank 2 and 3, respectively. All three of these teams are 2-0.

 

We're just stunned – stunned – by how bad the Lions are on pass defense, which we've talked about ad nauseam this year, including yesterday in the Monday Morning Hangover. But as we expected would happen on a bad team with a rookie QB at the helm, the Lions can't even pass the ball, either. They're dead last in both Offensive Passer Rating (40.5) and in Defensive Passer Rating (135.0). That's a shockingly bad Passer Rating Differential of -94.5. No team in history is even close to posting a PRD that bad. It's bad, bad news for the Lions. They suck so much more than we can even put into words.

 

Passer Rating Differential is based on two long-standing CHFF theories.

 

THEORY ONE - Passer Rating is actually a very, very good indicator of success, despite the fact it has so many critics. Yes, passer rating is unwieldy and awkward. The number it spits out exists in a vacuum - it has nothing to do with yards or points or any other concrete indicator that the average football fan understands. But it works: passing yards on offense do not tell us much about a team's success on the field; but passer rating does. Conversely, the passing yards surrendered by a defense do not tell us much about a team's success on the field; but Defensive Passer Rating does.

 

THEORY TWO – The NFL is all about passing success. Regular CHFF readers (Hi, Cousin Cooter!) know that the Cold, Hard Football Facts throughout NFL history prove that success in the passing game means everything. Teams can run well or run poorly, or defend the run well or defend the run poorly – but success either way hinges on their ability to pass the ball effectively or stop the pass on defense. If you look at any champion in NFL history, there are only two constants: they were either very good passing the ball or very good stopping the pass. The greatest teams, whether the 1940s Bears, 1960s Packers, 1970s Steelers of 1980s 49ers, were those that were effective in the passing game on both sides of the ball.

 

By the way, it was tough to come to that realization. When we started CHFF back in 2004, our minds were filled with all kinds of traditional mumbo-jumbo about the need to "establish the run" and "stop the run" on defense. But the data, the Cold, Hard Football Facts, quickly proved that our most cherished theories were false. But this isn't about what we think: it's about what the Cold, Hard Football Facts tell us.

 

Of course, it does help to have balance on offense – teams must at least attempt to run, even if they can't do it effectively. But at the end of the day you must pass well on offense and stop the pass well on defense or you're going nowhere.

 

And this list each week will tell us who's doing the best job in the passing game on both sides of the ball.