Postseason contenders and pretenders

 

We're a little gun shy after 2007, when the statistically irrelevant Giants pulled off the greatest postseason run in history, ending the year with a victory in the Super Bowl over the most dominant team in modern NFL history.

 

It was an outcome nobody could ... and nobody did ... predict.

 

But that's why humans play games, and not statistics. Keeps all of us on our toes.

 

With that said, we'll continue to put our faith in the Cold, Hard Football Facts and our Quality Stats. They may let us down from time to time, as they did last year. But they're certainly far more reliable than the "I have a gut feeling" method employed by your average factless pigskin "pundit."

 

The overviews of each team below are placed in order of their average rank across the board in our Quality Stats (as show in the chart here). It doesn't mean, necessarily, that we believe the teams belong in this exact order if we were to predict their likelihood of winning the Super Bowl. But it gives us an empirical order and, with very few exceptions (perhaps Indy most notably), the order is pretty consistent with the likelihood to win it all.

 

	Score	Bend	PYPA	DPR	OHI	DHI	BPI	Rel.	AVG
Titans	5	1	17	3	8	5	2	4	5.63
Giants	4	11	14	8	2	9	7	3	7.25
Ravens	7	3	18	1	23	3	1	2	7.25
Eagles	8	16	12	5	14	2	6	5	8.5
Panthers	9	9	5	15	5	19	4	6	9.00
Chargers	2	8	1	24	6	22	3	8	9.25
Steelers	15	4	20	2	28	1	7	1	9.75
Colts	13	5	9	11	7	25	13	7	11.25
Falcons	17	2	3	18	3	23	13	11	11.25
Dolphins	23	6	8	9	16	9	4	17	11.50
Vikings	11	24	19	16	21	4	16	12	15.38
Cardinals	10	32	6	30	18	17	15	19	18.38

 

Overall record: 13-3

Quality record: 5-2 (.714), +0.9 PPG

Ominous clouds of doubters continue to swirl around the 2008 Titans.

 

But you won't find them here: the Titans are clearly the most statistically stout team in the NFL this year and easily the team to beat in the postseason.

 

They rank in the top eight in seven of our eight Quality Stats and their lone weakness, relatively speaking, is a passing game that ranks a wholly mediocre 17 this year. But this weakness never seemed to hurt the team during the season, as Kerry Collins routinely delivered when called upon.

 

The Titans win the all-important Big Play battle (No. 2 on the Big Play Index), they're extraordinarily efficient defensively (No. 1 in Bendability) and very efficient offensively (No. 5 in Scoreability). They stop the pass very well (No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating) and are strong up front on both sides of the ball (No. 5 in Defensive Hog Index; No. 8 in Offensive Hog Index).

 

 

The biggest issue? Teams that take their gas off the pedal in the regular season often have trouble in the postseason. When the Titans take the field again in the divisional round, it will have been three weeks since the crowning achievement of their season, when they dominated the Steelers, 31-14.

 

Overall record: 12-4

Quality record: 6-3 (.633), +5.3 PPG

The Giants wobbled into the playoffs as if they had a little too much egg nog around the holidays, suffering December losses to the Eagles, Cowboys and Vikings.

However, they emerged victorious from the one game they absolutely needed to win, outlasting the hard-charging Panthers, 34-28, in an overtime classic that determined the NFC's No. 1 seed.

 

That's not to say the Giants ended strong by any measure. But they do rank in the top 10 in six of our eight Quality Stats and they end the season at No. 3 in the Relativity Index league-wide and No. 1 in the NFC – in other words, the Giants performed extremely well when we take into consideration the quality of their opponents.

 

The relative weaknesses are a mediocre passing game and a club that ranks No. 11 in Bendability, meaning New York does not play particularly efficient defense. The Giants also declined sharply up front. Remember, the G-Men ranked No. 1 in our Defensive Hog Index last year – the unit that was most largely responsible for the shocking upset of the Patriots in the Super Bowl. They rank No. 9 this year on our Defensive Hog Index. 

 

Overall, though, the team is much stronger statistically that last year's team – which simply did not look like it was made of championship material.

 

 

Overall record: 11-5

Quality record: 3-5 (.375), -0.8 PPG

The Ravens might be the most underrated team in the playoffs. Few consider them among the top teams remaining – and rookie QB Joe Flacco & Co. hardly generated the noise of rookie QB Matt Ryan and Co. in Atlanta, despite similar turnarounds in fortunes for both teams.

 

But Baltimore joins Pittsburgh as the only teams in the playoffs this year that rank No. 1 in two different Quality Stats – in the case of the Ravens, they top the field in both Defensive Passer Rating and Big Play Index, two indicators that had a very high correlation to success this season.

 

The ability to play pass defense will be huge for a team that faces Chad Pennington Sunday, and may have games against Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Kerry Collins and/or Ben Roethlisberger in its future: Rivers, Pennington and Manning were three of the best passers in football this year, Collins was the least likely to suffer negative pass plays and Roethlisberger is a proven winner and past Super Bowl champ.

 

The big negatives for the Ravens? They were manhandled by the Colts and Giants this year and the scoring differential against Quality Teams of -0.8 PPG is better than only Miami's among AFC playoff contenders.

 

Overall record: 9-6-1

Quality record: 5-4 (+5.8 PPG)

The Eagles have all the outward appearances of a team built for the playoffs.

The problem with the Eagles, of course, is inconsistency. In consecutive weeks in November, the Eagles were humiliated by a 13-13 tie with the awful Bengals and then went out and got smoked 36-7 in Baltimore; they followed up those two embarrassments with a 48-20 victory that exposed the Cardinals and then handed the mighty Giants their only home loss of the season.

 

The Good Eagles have a very legitimate shot of winning the Super Bowl; the Bad Eagles could lose to the Vikings in the wildcard round, though we don't anticipate that outcome.

 

 

Overall record: 12-4

Quality record: 4-4 (-2.5 PPG)

The Panthers are a Super Bowl contender on offense, but a huge question mark on defense.

 

Offensively, their ground game has been tremendous, and is led by an OL that ranks No. 5 on our Offensive Hog Index. However, Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith & Co. also lead an attack that ranks No. 5 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, too. 

 

But the Panthers are merely 19th in our Defensive Hog Index and 23rd against the run (4.43 YPA) – a condition that makes it highly unlikely they can emerge champs of a conference littered with great rushing attacks. Remember, the Giants ripped off 301 yards on the ground against Carolina just a couple of weeks ago. The Panthers are also a mere 15th in Defensive Passer Rating, meaning they have trouble stopping better passing teams, too.

 

Carolina does not have a Super Bowl-caliber defense and it's this defense that will ultimately cost them a trip to the big game.

 

Overall record: 8-8

Quality record: 3-5 (.375), +4.6 PPG

The Chargers look so good on paper – yet so mediocre in the standings. As everybody knows by now, they're just the second team in history to win a division with a .500 record.

 

However, in the case of the Chargers, there is a reason to think of them as a legitimate playoff contender: they rank in the top eight in the NFL in six of our eight Quality Stats – this includes a shockingly high No. 8 ranking in our Relativity Index. It's rare for a team to perform so well statistically yet boast only a .500 record.

 

More interestingly: the Chargers led the NFL in Passing Yards Per Attempt this year – every team that's led the league in this category since we began tracking it in 2005 has reached the Super Bowl.

 

Here's the problem: the Chargers are a respectable 3-5 against Quality Teams this year with a strong +4.6 PPG scoring differential. But the Quality Wins came against the Jets, Patriots and Buccaneers.

 

San Diego, in other words, did not beat a single team that reached the playoffs, losing to Carolina, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indy and Atlanta.

 

It's hard to suddenly go 4-0 facing a field against which you were 0-5 during the season.

 

 

Overall record: 12-4

Quality record: 4-4 (.500), 0.0 PPG

The Steelers join the surprising Ravens as the only teams to top two of our Quality Stats.

 

Pittsburgh is No. 1 in Relativity, which means that no team outpaced the average performance of their opponents better than the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is also No.1 on our Defensive Hog Index. In fact, they top every single individual indicator that comprises the Defensive Hog Index. The Steelers are the best in the league at stopping the run, at forcing negative pass plays and at stopping opponents on third downs.

 

The weaknesses, however, are well documented. Pittsburgh's offensive line is dreadful, as evidenced by its No. 28 position on our Offensive Hog Index. It's the lowest rank in any category by any playoff team this year that does not play its home games in a desert.

 

The Steelers also have difficulty passing the ball, as evidenced by their No. 20 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Don't discount the importance of this indicator: remember that the Super Bowl champion 2005 Steelers, while considered a run-first team, topped the NFL that year in Passing Yards Per Attempt.

 

Pittsburgh's weaknesses are also evident by the fact that it's .500 (4-4) and dead even in scoring differential against Quality Teams. The Steelers are good against everybody else but perfectly mediocre against good competition.

 

They're simply not balanced enough on both sides of the ball to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender.

 

Overall record: 12-4

Quality record: 5-2 (.714), +5.0 PPG

It's odd calling a team with a 12-4 record and on a nine-game win streak a dark horse. But the fact that the Colts have to go on the road for a wildcard game tells you how far 12-4 got them here in 2008, and how brutally competitive the AFC was this year.

 

With that said, besides the Chargers, the Colts are the most interesting team in the playoffs – at least when viewed through our prism of pigskin.

 

No longer the high-scoring, headline-grabbing point-a-minute offense of old, the Colts now have the gritty sandpaper feel of a battle-tested winner that may not impress you, but that always seems to come out on the right  side of the scoreboard.

 

Of course, we all know which team you'd rather be: Consider that the point-a-minute Colts of old were fundamentally flawed and weak, as evidenced by their consistent post-season collapses.

 

And then consider the Super Bowl champion Colts of 2006, who were statistically unimpressive – they outscored opponents by a grand total of 67 points that year. But they had gumption and moxie and sucked it all up during a series of gritty playoff victories.

 

The 2008 Colts are clearly in the latter model. They have outscored their opponents by just 79 points this year, and have no overwhelming strengths – even the vaunted passing game led by Peyton Manning finished just ninth in the typically all-important Passing Yards Per Attempt category this year (middle of the pack among playoff teams). Remember, the Super Bowl champion 2006 Colts led the league in this category.

 

Conversely, the Colts have few weaknesses: they're in the top half of the league all of our Quality Stats except for Defensive Hog Index, where they're a weak 25th  

 

Indy's nine-game win streak entering the playoffs says a lot about the team's fortitude, as does its league-leading .714 winning percentage (5-2) vs. Quality Opponents, which ties Tennessee for the league's best mark.

 

 

Overall record: 11-5

Quality record: 4-3 (.571), -2.0 PPG

The Falcons were a great story this year, but the joy ride will end in all likelihood in the divisional round.

 

Their passing game (No. 3 in YPA) and their offensive front (No. 3 in our Offensive Hog Index) certainly scream "Super Bowl potential."

 

But the defense will ultimately cost the Falcons, especially a front seven that ranks 23rd on our Defensive Hog Index and surrenders a brutal 4.92 yards per rush attempt (28th). That inability to stop the run will spell suicide against any NFC team but Arizona.

 

Nice story ... with perhaps better years ahead for an organization that suddenly shows so much promise. But expecting anything more than a win over Arizona is simply not realistic.

 

Overall record: 11-5

Quality record: 2-4 (.333). -4.8 PPG

If the Falcons were a great story this year, the Dolphins were an even better tale.

 

But there are a few untold sides of the story from 1-15 in 2007 to AFC East champs in 2008.

 

Consider that the Dolphins beat just two Quality Teams all year – but neither of those teams, the 9-7 Jets and 11-5 Patriots, even reached the playoffs. Their lone win against a playoff-bound team was a 17-10 victory over the 8-8 Chargers way back in early October.

 

In other words, Miami built its fairy tale season against a pretty weak schedule and the fairly tale will end sadly ever after, probably at home on Sunday in the wildcard round against Baltimore.

 

The weaknesses are also evident by the team's No. 17 ranking in Relativity – in other words, the Dolphins were below average this year (despite the 11-5 record) when we take into consideration the average performance of their opponents.

 

The Dolphins boasted a very solid passing game behind Chad Pennington that finishes the season at No. 8 in YPA – a dramatic improvement over 2007. But in the Ravens they face a team with the league's No. 1 defense, as measured by Defensive Passer Rating.

 

It's not a good match-up. But there are few if any good match-ups for the Dolphins in the playoffs this year.

 

Overall record: 10-6

Quality record: 4-5 (.444), +1.8 PPG

The Vikings are a nice little team that eked out a title in the poor NFC North.

 

But the only outstanding statistical unit on the team is a front seven that ranked No. 4 in our Defensive Hog Index this year. The fact that the Vikings were No. 2 against the run (3.31 YPA) this year gives them a puncher's chance in the NFC, where everybody but Arizona seems to run often and run well.

 

But there's little to hang your hat on anywhere else on the team. Sure, the ground game was excellent: Adrian Peterson led the league in rushing and the Vikings averaged 4.49 YPA on the ground. But the passing game was below average and the Vikings suffered a negative pass play (sack or INT) on a whopping 12.1 percent of their dropbacks this year (30th).

 

It's hard to win in the playoffs when you make so many mistakes in the passing game and when you're generally average or below in so many different areas.

 

 

Overall record: 9-7

Quality record: 2-6 (.250), -11.9 PPG

The Cardinals are a playoff team in name only, the lone club to bubble up out of the La Brea tarpit of pigskin that is the NFC West and earning a spot in the playoffs only because of that pesky NFL rule that dictates that all eight division champs be given a seat at the postseason buffet.

 

They're so fraudulent that they even merit their own lonely category here at the bottom of our list of contenders and pretenders.

 

The Cardinals are barely 9-7, they lost six of the eight games they played against Quality Teams, they were outscored by a dreadful 11.9 PPG in those eight games, and they are the only team in the playoffs that averages in the bottom half of the league in our eight Quality Stats. They're dead last in defensive efficiency (Bendability) and 30th in the key Defensive Passer Rating category.

 

In other words, it looks like our preseason prediction that the 2008 Cardinals will earn the third postseason victory in franchise history will fall flat, even as the organization hosts its first playoff game since it was known as the Chicago Cardinals in 1947.

 

Arizona has no hope, no chance, no dignity and no business being in the playoffs.

By Kerry Byrne