Patriots team report: Why MNF could be closer than you think

By Erik Frenz (Twitter: @ErikFrenz)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Patriots beat writer

It's not that the Chiefs don't have a chance against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. It's just that the odds are heavily against them.

How heavily? 16 points. Ouch.

That's a heavy spread for any team, and although the Chiefs haven't inspired much confidence in their play this season, they may be able to keep it a bit closer than Vegas wants to give them credit for.

Why Chiefs will make it close

Rushing YPA

The Chiefs haven't exactly had a dominant rushing attack last year -- not like last year, at least, where they ranked first in almost every rushing category. They rank 18th in YPA with 4.16 this season after ranking fourth with 4.72 YPA in 2010. That dip is largely due to the absence of Jamaal Charles, but regardless of who's in the backfield for the Chiefs on Monday night, they will get their opportunities against a Patriots run defense that has been average this season.

Sure, they've only given up 100 yards on the ground in one game this season, but it's not the total yards that should be a concern for New England. It should be the YPA they've allowed, a very mediocre 4.28. 

What's more, the Patriots ran a four-man front against the Jets consisting of Mark Anderson, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Deaderick and Andre Carter from right to left. This was a formation that invited the Jets to run, as it consists of two sub-par run defenders in Anderson and Deaderick. Although the Patriots did a solid job at times of masking those gaps in their defensive front, the opportunities will be there from time to time for the Chiefs. The question is whether or not they can take advantage.

They'll have to if they want to make Monday night as easy as possible for first-time NFL starter Tyler Palko. Running the ball effectively will open up the play action game, which makes the game easier for any quarterback. As cliché as that may sound on paper, it's never truer and more important than in a quarterback's first start.

Romeo Crennel

Okay, so it's not some statistical revelation, and it's not some novel concept that no other reporter has told you about this week. But there's no minimizing the impact of Romeo Crennel's extensive knowledge of Bill Belichick's system -- both on offense and on defense. Yes practicing against Tom Brady and New England's offense gave him familiarity with how the quarterback operates, and how the offense as a whole operates as well.

The Chiefs haven't forced a lot of Negative Pass Plays this season -- more on that later -- but they have done a fairly good job of forcing incompletions. They have forfeited completions on 58.96 percent of passes, which ranks 11th in the NFL. As we've seen this season, simply keeping Brady out of rhythm is enough to keep a game close, or at least stay in it for a bit longer than expected.

Belichick has felt the wrath of his coordinators in the past, as they know the weaknesses of the schemes he runs and the strengths that they should avoid playing into.

Why Patriots wil ultimately win

Negative Pass Plays

One way to draw nearer to victory against the Patriots is to win the turnover battle. Another way is to rattle Tom Brady.

If the Chiefs are going to do either against New England's O-Hogs, it will be a dramatic turnaround for a unit that ranks 24th in the league in defensive NPP with 7.94 percent. This is especially true since their competition gives up even less than that at just 6.91 percent NPP. 

That being said, Brady has proven to be mortal this season, and has been much more of an interception machine than in year's past. he has throw 10 through 10 games after throwing just four in all of 2010.

The Chiefs don't need to force a lot of NPP to slow Brady down, but the pass rush will need to get home eventually, or Brady could find his rhythm as he did against the Jets on Sunday night.

Outside of Tamba Hali, the Chiefs defense has failed to rattle opposing quarterbacks. Unless Hali has a monster game, the Patriots offense shouldn't hit very many bumps in the road.

Scoreability and Bendability

Efficiency kills in the NFL, and the Patriots are killer in efficiency ratings when it comes to Bendability and Scoreability. The Patriots move the ball just 15.01 yards per point scored (105.07 yards for seven points), and rank 11th in Scoreability. They force opponents to move the ball 18.54 yards per point scored (129.78 yards for the equivalent of a touchdown). 

The Chiefs, on the other hand, rank 28th in Scoreability at 19.57 yards per point scored (136.99 yards for seven points) and 24th in Bendability at 15.04 yards per point allowed (105.28). Those are indicators that  regardless of how well the Chiefs are or aren't playing on offense or defense, there are two essentials to winning football that they don't have down just yet: scoring and stopping opponents from scoring in an efficient way. 

It doesn't matter how deadly the offensive attack or how immovable the defense is. If you can't win important battles for field position, turnovers and red zone conversions, you won't win the game.

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Read more: Bill Belichick, Cold Hard Football Facts, Eric Frenz, Football Nation, Kansas City Chiefs, Monday Night Football, New England Patriots, NFL, Tamba Hali, Tom Brady, Week 11