Patriots and Packers on pace for records of dominance, futility

By Erik Frenz (Twitter: @ErikFrenz)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Patriots beat writer

If Roger Goodell loves passing, the Patriots and Packers should be playing every prime time game on the 2012 schedule. In 2011, passing yards are more inflated than a hot air balloon, and the NFL is witnessing the most prolific passing season in history on many levels.

But the Patriots and Packers are taking it to new heights with their lofty passing numbers.

Gross passing yardage records will be gross

Patriots and Packers fans this season will each witness more than 10,000 collective yards through the air on offense and defense. The Patriots are on pace to pass for 5,221 yards and surrender 5,192 through the air (10,413 total). The Packers are not far behind. They’re on pace to pass for 5,176 yards and surrender 4,907 yards through the air (10,083 total).

It's a pace unheard of even just a few years ago, let alone in the deflated Dead Ball Era of the 1970's. Consider this -- the NFL totaled 55,620 yards of passing in 1977. The Patriots and Packers are each on pace for nearly 20 percent of that total all on their lonesome.

In 1977, the Patriots totaled just 4,666 gross yards throug the air on offense and defense. The Packers, meanwhile, grossed just 4,055 passing yards collectively on offense and defense. Granted, that was in a 14-game season, but both teams are on pace to more than double those totals in 2011.

The Three Marinos

Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are all on pace to break Dan Marino's single season record for passing yards (5,084) and are only separated by 150 yards between the three of them -- Brees leads the pack with 4,031, Brady trails closely with 3,916, and Rodgers "brings up the rear" with 3,884.

That just one quarterback would be on pace to break the record this late in the season would be noteworthy in its own right, but three of them has this new-age NFL looking like a yardage fire sale on Black Friday -- a come-one-come-all event with a line a bit longer than expected.

Whether or not you favor yards in your statistical buffet, you have to admit that the falling of so many passing records in one season is incredible.

Defenseless defenses

It's not just a watershed season for pass attacks, and there's another neck and neck race for a passing yardage record, only this one is on the defensive side of the ball. Incidentally, though, it includes two of the same teams that are on pace for the offensive passing yardage record.

Team	Year	Pass yards allowed on defense
New England Patriots*	2011*	5,192*
Green Bay Packers*	2011*	4,907*
Atlanta Falcons	1995	4,751
San Francisco 49ers	2005	4,620
New York Jets	1986	4,567

*16-game projection, season in progress

So basically, in terms of yards, the Patriots defense is on pace to allow more yards than Marino threw for in one of the most prolific passing seasons in NFL history (before this year, of course).

What may be even more unprecedented than the Patriots being on pace to give up the most passing yards in NFL history? The Green Bay Packers being on pace to give up the second-most with a so-far-unblemished record. In fact, the three teams that are on pace to end up in the top 10 most pass yards ever allowed -- the Packers, Patriots and Saints -- are a combined 30-6. Stats are for losers.

If the Packers finish their run at 19-0, not only will they have become the first team to do so in league history, but they will also be the worst pass defense to win the Super Bowl.

Proving what we already knew about yards

Yards are the conch of statistical information: an empty shell that may appear dangerous, but lacks substance.

We all know the NFL is about efficiency. Efficiency is why the 2009 Saints, with the league's 26th-ranked total pass defense, were able to beat the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV. They had the third-ranked defense in Defensive Passer Rating that season. It's also why the 2001 Patriots, who were wild underdogs due to their 23rd-ranked total pass defense, were able to beat the Greatest Show on Turf in Super Bowl XXXVI. They, too, had the third-best Defensive Passer Rating that season.

These are just two examples that high yardage totals don't necessarily doom a defense in the postseason. In fact, four of the five worst pass defenses in gross yards (including the projected totals for the Patriots and Packers) have made the playoffs. You can't say the same for the top five worst defenses in Defensive Passer Rating. None of them have seen the other side of January.

Team	Year	Defensive Passer Rating
Detroit Lions	2008	110.9
Indianapolis Colts*	2011*	109.3*
Houston Oilers	1982	107.3
Detroit Lions	2009	107
Minnesota Vikings	1984	104.4

The Patriots defense currently boasts a Defensive Passer Rating of 86.62 -- far from the worst in history. That's because while New England gives up yards at an historic rate, they do two things very well: Make stops in the red zone, and intercept passes. Those two factors have helped the Patriots hold opponents to 18 touchdown passes, which ranks 17th. Just like 2010, this defense is one of the best in the league in interceptions with 17 of them through 11 games.

Who do the Patriots trail in interceptions? You guessed it: the Packers, who have 23 and a Defensive Passer Rating of 79.92, the 10th-best DPR in the NFL.

So let me get this straight: the same two defenses which are on pace to give up the most and second-most passing yards in NFL history are the same defenses which lead the league in interceptions?

The way of the future

What would Dan Patrick have to say about pass attacks in 2011? "You can't stop it, you can only hope to contain it."

Just like the Dead Ball Era, this is just the age we live in. Be it rules changes, better quarterbacks, or a combination of those and other factors, defenses have to adjust. Opportunistic defenses are the way of the future.

So, it seems, are 5,000-yard seasons from quarterbacks and pass defenses alike.

---

---

Read more: Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, NFL, Quality Stats