New England vs. Denver

New England – 4-6 vs. quality opponents

Denver – 7-3 vs. quality opponents

 

DENVER: Mike Shanahan may be to the run game what legendary coaches Sid Gilman and Don Coryell were to the passing game. The Broncos rushed for 2,539 yards this season and averaged 4.7 yards per carry (second in both categories). That's nothing new for Shanahan teams. During his 11 seasons in Denver, the Broncos have finished in the top 10 in rushing every year but one (1999) and averaged more than 4.0 YPC every year but one (2001).

 

Here's how the Broncos stack up running the ball in the Shanahan Era:

 

Season	Total Rush Yards	Rank	Yards Per Carry
2005	2,539	2	4.68
2004	2,333	4	4.77
2003	2,629	2	4.84
2002	2,266	5	4.96
2001	1,877	10	3.90
2000	2,324	2	4.50
1999	1,864	12	4.01
1998	2,468	2	4.70
1997	2,378	4	4.57
1996	2,362	1	4.50
1995	1,995	5	4.53

 

New England: The Patriots have developed the reputation of a team that squeezes out a lot of close games, especially in the postseason.

 

But they've put on a clinic in postseason deconstruction over their last four playoff games. They've outscored their last opponents better than 2 to 1: 154-54 (28.25-13.5). Their opponents in these four games were a combined 52-12 in their respective regular seasons (.812).

 

Much has been made this week of Brady's performance on the road this season (where he's thrown 12 TDs and 12 INTs) vs. his record at home (14 TDs, 2 INTs). But over the course of his career, Brady has performed remarkably well on the road vs. quality opponents. These are his career numbers on the road against teams with winning records (including playoffs):

 

* 504 for 795, 5,869 yards, 37 TDs, 17 INTs, 92.3 rating, 25.6 PPG, 17-6 (.739) record

 

Rarely are games this easy to analyze. If Denver can run, they win. If Denver can't run, they lose. New England will put the ball in the hands of its record-setting quarterback and hope the defense that rose mightily in the second half of the season will continue to produce. In a game of streaks, it's hard to go against the greatest postseason run in NFL history and against the game's best big-game quarterback. But we have been treated well by the Quality Wins Quotient and, at the end of the day, have to invest our trust in it. Denver has simply played better all season long against top competition.