Naughty Nurse: Cincinnati Bengals vital signs

(Our Russian mail-order Naughty Nurse checks the statistical vital signs of each NFL team after each season. She breaks out her pigskin probe and uses her soothing, healing hands to take the temperature, and maybe a few liberties, with the Cincinnati Bengals.)

By Zachary Pierpoint
Cold, Hard Football Facts stat-master

The Cincinnati Bengals showed some backbone this offseason, with owner Mike Brown going toe to toe with quarterback Carson Palmer. The Bengals won that confrontation, drafting Andy Dalton in the second round and seeing improved quarterback play, before eventually getting a first-round pick from the Oakland Raiders for Palmer.

The Bengals, behind their red-headed rookie, fought their way to a winning record and a playoff berth for just the third time in the last 20 seasons. And while they weren't very competitive in the wild-card loss to the Houston Texans, there is more reason for hope in Cincinnati than in quite some time. The Bengals feature a well rounded team, built on young players, with no particularly significant free agents. Add in two first round picks in the 2011 draft, and the Bengals have the potential to make some noise in the next few seasons.

The 2011 Storyline: The Bengals made strides as an organization, turning over a new leaf. A 9-7 record and a wild card berth are the positives, but an 0-4 record against divisional rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore leave an obvious hurdle to the future improvement of the team.

The Vital Signs

Coach (record): Marvin Lewis (69-74-1 with Cincinnati; 69-74-1 overall)
2011 record: 9-7 (22.1 PPG - 20.2 PPG)
Record against the spread: 8-6-2
Record vs. Quality Opponents: 1-6 (16.4 - 23.4)
Record last five seasons: 34-45-1 (.431)
Best Quality Stat in 2011: Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt (4th)
Worst Quality Stat in 2011: Quality Standings (24th)

Overall	QS	SCOR	BEND	RPYPA	DRPYPA	QBR	DQBR	OPR	DPR	PRD	OHI	DHI	REL
13	24	9	17	17	4	16	11	16	17	18	18	9	17

Overall= Overall position in Quality Stats Power Rankings; QS = Quality Standings; SCOR = Scoreability; BEND = Bendability; RPYPA = Real Passing Yards per Attempt; DRPYPA = Defensive Real Passing Yards Per Attempt; QBR = Real Quarterback Rating; DQBR = Defensive Real Quarterback Rating; OPR = Offensive Passer Rating; DPR = Defensive Passer Rating; PRD = Passer Rating Differential; OHI = Offensive Hog Index; DHI = Defensive Hog Index; REL = Relativity Index.

Statistical Curiosity of 2011: The Bengals were a perfect 9-0 on the season against teams that failed to make the playoffs. Including the wildcard round, the Bengals were an equally perfect 0-8 on the season against teams that made the playoffs. Since the merger, only two other teams sported such perfection in the regular season, and both won at least one playoff game marring the spotless record (1972 Miami Dolphins 14-0 against nonplayoff teams, 0-0 against playoff teams, 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars 14-0 against nonplayoff teams, 0-2 against playoff teams).

Best game of 2011: 24-17 win at Tennessee (Week 6). The Titans were 4-3 playing a tough schedule which had already included four eventual playoff teams. The Bengals were 5-2, riding a four-game winning streak, and looking for their first five-game winning streak since 1988. However, Tennessee jumped out to an early 17-7 halftime lead. Cincinnati owned the second half, though, scoring 17 unanswered points and winning 24-17, going to 6-2 and sending a message to the league as a playoff contender. Additionally, this game was the only time all season Cincinnati beat a team that finished with a winning record, and the head to head tiebreaker actually propelled the Bengals to the wildcard over the also 9-7 Titans.

Worst game of 2011: 31-10 loss at Houston Texans (wildcard round). Cincinnati lost by more than one score only twice all season, a 35-7 drubbing at Pittsburgh in week 7, and the 31-10 mistake-ridden playoff loss to the Texans. In a battle of rookie starters, TJ Yates led the Texans past Dalton and the Bengals by playing essentially mistake -free football. Dalton, on the other hand, threw three picks, one returned for a touchdown, and provided Houston with the opportunity to play to its strength: pounding the football on the ground. It was not exactly the playoff game the team had envisioned: giving up 183 yards rushing, turning the ball over three times, and losing by 21 points.

Strength: Offensive Efficiency (Scoreability). The single unit easiest to praise based on the Quality Stats may well be the secondary, with their No. 4 ranking in Defensive Real Passing YPA and No. 11 ranking in Defensive Real QB Rating However, a lack of interceptions left the unit just No. 17 in Defensive Passer Rating, and that 4th place DRPYPA was still only good enough for third place in the AFC North.

Instead, the true strength of the Bengals this season was the ability to score points with great efficiency. The Bengals offense hardly struck fear in the hearts of the opposition ranking no. 17, 16, 16, and 18 in RPYPA, QBR, OPR, and OHI respectively. In traditional stats, the Bengals were no. 20 at racking up yards, no. 20 at yards through the air, and no. 19 at yards on the ground. However, the Bengals were no. 9 on the Scoreability ranking, scoring a point for each 14.88 yards gained. Scoreability had been a real issue for the Bengals in 2010, as they ranked no. 24 and needed 16.43 yards for each point. This improved efficiency allowed a nondescript offense to put up the points needed for a winning record.

	PS	OPA	PA	OPS	PS-OPA	PA-OPS
All Opponents	21.5	20.2	19.7	19.2	+1.78	-1.03
Playoff Opponents	16.1	24.4	16.9	22.0	-0.71	-2.48
Nonplayoff Opponents	25.7	16.9	22.5	16.8	+3.72	+0.10

PS = Points scored per game by Cincinnati; OPA = Points allowed per game by Cincinnati's opponents in other games; PA = Points allowed per game by Cincinnati; OPS = Points scored per game by Cincinnati's opponents in other games; PS-OPA = How many more points Cincinnati scored than average; PA-OPS = How many fewer points per games Cincinnati allowed than average.

What the preceding table highlights is not only did Cincinnati beat bad teams and lose to good teams, but Cincinnati played better than expected against bad teams and played worse than expected against good teams. That is, the average team would have done better than Cincinnati against the cream of the crop but done worse against the dregs. Cincinnati needs to figure out how to play well against good teams if they have any desire to break their 21 year playoff victory drought.

General off-season strategy/overview: The biggest thing for the Bengals to do this offseason is to build off of the momentum they developed this season. At the end of the season, the Bengals were starting 10 players in the league three or fewer seasons and 17 players in the league five or fewer seasons. While many of them are free agents, none of them are in high demand.

If the Bengals can return a solid core of young players, continue to make good decisions on draft day, and develop their talent, they could be a force to reckon with in 2012.

However, a note of caution: nearly all of these same things were said about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after last offseason. In 2010, Tampa Bay went 10-6 by beating up on bad teams while losing to good teams. They had a team featuring a lot of young players, but they couldn't build off of that and as a team they regressed badly in 2011. Cincinnati will have to find the right recipe to improve the team, keep the young players focused, and move forward as a franchise.

The Bengals have a lot of cap room, which makes them a potential player in free agency, but that hasn't really been the team's modus operandi under Mike Brown. Then again, good decisions hadn't really been the team's MO under Mike Brown and that has seemingly changed over this past season, from drafting Andy Dalton to handling the Carson Palmer situation.

The Bengals were solid on both sides of the ball, but not spectacular anywhere. Between the draft and free agency, look for them to pick up depth, with a focus on running back and offensive line. Secondary could also be a concern depending on how many of their own free agents they retain.

Totally premature 2012 diagnosis: Cincinnati performed at a higher level than expected in 2011, but don't look for them to spring board directly to Super Bowl contender. Cincinnati has the look of a wild card contender again in 2011, but this time an expected contender instead of a surprise one. With Pittsburgh and Baltimore not facing drastic personnel issues, Cincinnati isn't likely to seriously challenger for the division, but they ought to keep teams honest. Look for Cincinnati to continue to develop and start playing more competitively against the league's top teams, but remain in the second or third tier.

---

---

Read more: Andy Dalton, Marvin Lewis, mike brown, NFL, Zachary Pierpoint