Naughty Nurse: Baltimore Ravens vital signs

(Our Russian mail-order Naughty Nurse checks the statistical vital signs of each NFL team after each season. She breaks out her pigskin probe and uses her soothing, healing hands to take the temperature, and maybe a few liberties, with the Baltimore Ravens.) 
 
By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts nursing student
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts caused a mini-you-know-what storm by arguing that Baltimore would be the perfect place for Peyton Manning, the one and only team that's literally one upgrade at QB away from winning the Super Bowl. Well, listen, we know it's not going to happen. We know the organization is content where it is. Just pointing out to one and all the reality of the situation. The Cold, Hard Football Facts are not always on the side of popular opinion, after all. But you'll agree Baltimore would be the perfect place too, if you hadn't already, by looking at the 2011 data below.

The 2011 storyline: The Ravens were one excruciating play away from reaching the Super Bowl and likely giving the Giants a tougher battle in the big game than the Patriots did. Ultimately, underwhelming play at QB and poor situational football in key situations, a Baltimore problem for years, cost the team.
 
The Vital Signs
Coach (record): John Harbaugh (44-20 with Baltimore; 44-20 overall)
2011 record: 12-4 (23.6 PPG – 16.6 PPG)
Record against the spread: 8-7-1
Record vs. Quality Opponents: 6-1 (24.4 – 16.1)
Record last five seasons: 49-31 (.613)
Best Quality Stat in 2011: Defensive Real QB Rating (1st) Defensive Passer Rating (1st), Defensive Hog Index (1st)
Worst Quality Stat in 2011: Real Passing YPA (18t)

ALL QUALITY STATS

Overall	QS	SCOR	BEND	RPYPA	DRPYPA	QBR	DQBR	OPR	DPR	PRD	OHI	DHI	REL
2	3	8	8	18t	3	19	1	15	1	8	2t	1	5

Overall= Overall position in Quality Stats Power Rankings; QS = Quality Standings; SCOR = Scoreability; BEND = Bendability; RPYPA = Real Passing Yards Per Attempt; DRPYPA = Defensive Real Passing Yards Per Attempt; QBR = Real Quarterback Rating; DQBR = Defensive Real Quarterback Rating; OPR = Offensive Passer Rating; DPR = Defensive Passer Rating; PRD = Passer Rating Differential; OHI = Offensive Hog Index; DHI = Defensive Hog Index; REL = Relativity Index.   

Statistical curiosity of 2011: The Ravens have ranked higher in scoring defense than they have in scoring offense every year since 1998. They were better in scoring offense just twice in their history, in their debut seasons of 1996 and 1997. Bring back Ted Marchibroda! OK, just kidding.
 
Baltimore was No. 12 in scoring offense (23.6 PPG) in 2011 and No. 3 in scoring defense (16.6) – in fact, John Harbaugh’s Ravens have finished No. 3 in scoring defense in all four of his years at the helm. 
 
Best game of 2011: 35-7 win vs. Pittsburgh (Week 1). The Ravens told the world that that the 2011 season would be different in a division dominated by Pittsburgh by laying on the Steelers one of the ugliest beatings of the year right out of the gate. Baltimore won the turnover battle 7-0 (a historic difference), ran for 170 yards to just 66 for Pittsburgh and sacked Ben Roethlisberger four times. The dominance was evident in CHFF’s trusty old Passer Rating Differential: +64.7 in Baltimore’s favor (117.6-52.9), one of the greatest single-game margins of 2011.
 
Worst game of 2011: 34-14 loss at San Diego (Week 15). Baltimore suffered some curious road losses in 2011, at Jacksonville (Week 7) and at Seattle (Week10), but none uglier than a 34-14 loss against the struggling Chargers. The Ravens not only lost, they were utterly uncompetitive, including on defense. San Diego pieced together one long drive after another and scored on almost every single possession, while winning the sack battle against the league’s top Defensive Hogs by a margin of 7-0. The Chargers led 34-7 at one point before Baltimore tacked on a late Torrey Smith touchdown reception.
 
Strength: Pass defense.  Conventional wisdom is that guys like Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have lost a step in their later years. Hey, all players do. But if that’s the case, there was little to no statistical evidence of it on the field in 2011. The Ravens still fielded one of the league’s best defenses week in and week out. The pass-defense numbers are awesome:

• No. 1 in Defensive Real QB Rating (59.7)
• No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating (68.8)
• No. 1 in passing touchdowns allowed (11)
• No. 2 on the Defensive Hog Index
• No. 2 at forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.8%)
• No. 3 in Defensive Real Passing YPA (5.39 YPA)

 
In the era of the 5,000-yard passer, Baltimore’s pass defense in 2011 bordered on brillaint.
 
Weakness: Joe Flacco. Let’s not beat around the bush here. The quarterback is the team’s biggest issue. Coach John Harbaugh can scream from the mountaintops that “Flacco is our No. 1!”But you can’t run and hide from the power of our Quality Stats, which rips apart any myth or misguided storyline that teams may have about themselves.
 
Baltimore finished in the top eight in 11 of our 14 indicators – an awesome statistical performance that put the Ravens No. 2 on our Quality Stats Power Rankings and made them top-to-bottom arguably the best team in football.
 
But those three indicators in which they missed mark? They all reflect on the quarterback, folks: No. 15 in Offensive Passer Rating (81.7), No. 18 in Real Passing YPA (5.9 YPA) and No. 19 in Real QB Rating (72.9).
 
It doesn’t make Flacco a bad guy. Doesn’t mean we’re“haters” – spare the emails – it just means that he IS the weak link on the team, by any empirical measure.
 
With that said, he’s not so bad that the team can’t win a Super Bowl without him. As we all know, the Ravens were a dropped pass (on a perfectly thrown ball by Flacco) away from battling the Giants in the Super Bowl. Baltimore would have entered the Super Bowl with a difference-making defense that Eli Manning would have found much more difficult to shred at key moments in the game the way he did against the sad-sack Patriots defense.
   
General off-season strategy/overview: Well, as we noted last week and elsewhere, only one team in football is one player away from being the top favorite to win Super Bowl XLVII. That team is your Baltimore Ravens. It’s the only team all but assured of a strong run at the Super Bowl if they upgrade at QB and sign Peyton Manning.
 
That move is not going to happen. It’s only a dream – a wonderful, fact-filled dream – in the glittering eye of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. The Ravens are clearly committed to Flacco and working on a new contract as we speak. Hey, there are worse things.
 
They franchised Ray Rice, they expect to have Reed and Lewis back in the fold – both on the back nine but both still playing at a high level. And they’re trying to pin down Ben Grubbs, their Pro Bowl guard, with a big contract. Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs is already locked up for 2012 and beyond.
 
The team will probably fall into the trap of believing that it’s just one game-breaking Shiny Hood Ornament receiver away from giving Flacco the weapons he needs to take the next step. This is a fallacy, of course. Quarterbacks make wide receivers, wide receivers do not make quarterbacks. And the team tried  the “chase the big-name free agent WR” move before the 2010 season, with very mixed results.
 
But with the team strong in so many areas, adding some offensive weapons probably going to be the best route. After all, RB Rice was the team’s leading receiver with 76 catches. They should attack the tight end position specifically. The 2011 season was a break-out year for the position in many places, but not in Baltimore. Ed Dickson was the top tight end for the Ravens with 54 catches, but for just 528 yards (9.8 YPC) and a long reception of 25 yards.
 
The other big-move option? Pull the plug on the reign of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, who is not particularly popular in Ravens fan circles. The track record of offensive production for his teams is spotty (a few nice years in San Diego working with Marty Schottenheimer) and his Baltimore teams have struggled to make explosive big plays. Again, it's a move that's not likely for an organization that clearly believes it’s in a strong place – and for a lot of good reasons. But it could be a shake-'em-up difference maker for the team if it happened.
 
Totally premature 2012 diagnosis: Baltimore will be in the mix late in the year again in 2012, barring a sudden breakdown of the defense or the implosion of Joe Flacco. The team likes where it is and for good reason – the goal is to maintain and tweak and improve where possible.
 
Another 12-win season seems like a strong possibility and the schedule is not particular daunting, with non-division games against the AFC East and NFC East. Those pairings will give us a great AFC title game rematch with a visit from the Patriots and a look at what might have been in the Super Bowl with a visit from the Giants. 

---

---

Read more: Baltimore Ravens, Ed Reed, Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh, Kerry Byrne, Kerry J. Byrne, Naughty Nurse, NFL, Ravens, Ray Lewis, Ray Rice, terrell suggs