A myth-breaking work of staggering genius

 

Humility is one of the finer qualities of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. We research diligently and humbly present the work to you, our devoted Pigskin Public.

 

It's in that spirit of humility that we offer this myth-breaking work of staggering genius.

 

Bow in fearful worship of its greatness. Tremble at the knowledge that it's the type of compelling and comparative research you will see here all season long (and that you have, no doubt, already come to expect). This myth-breaking work of staggering genius will become the centerpiece of several follow-up stories in the immediate future, including our look at the greatest quarterbacks of today and of all time.

 

After all, it takes greatness to know greatness.

 

Our myth-breaking work of staggering genius serves one immediate purpose: It proves that glitzy, gunslinging modern quarterbacks – guys who devour defenses the way we devour deli meat and donuts – were simply no match for performers of the past like Roger Staubach and Bart Starr.

 

This myth-breaking work of staggering genius centers around one of football's most often used bits of data: passer rating.

 

Passer rating is generally used to measure the effectiveness of various quarterbacks. The complex formula has many critics. The all-powerful Cold, Hard Football Facts are not among them. You can question the mathematical formula used to arrive at passer rating. But over the years, our research has shown that passer rating is a fairly solid indicator of a quarterback's capability, at least when it comes to passing the ball. Our Quality Stats also indicate that passer rating does have a solid correlation with victory and defeat. Teams win when their QB passes the ball well. Teams lose when their QB does not pass the ball well.

 

But passer rating has one fatal flaw – a hideous, puss-filled facial lesion so crude and vile it blinds all those who stare at it.

 

Passer rating's fatal flaw is this: a complete and utter lack of historical context. Put most simply, not all passer ratings are created equal. The inflated passer ratings of today must be considered in their historical context when compared with the deflated passer ratings of yesteryear.

 

To put it into terms that you, the average Cold, Hard Football Facts reader can understand, it's like comparing those silicone, surgically enhanced breasts of Pamela Anderson (right) with those milky, all-natural breasts of 1940s bombshell and football groupie Jane Russell (below). Sure, all four breasts are big and round and beautiful in their own special way. But each pair must be groped and judged in the context of its era.

 

The same goes for passer rating. While the formula used here is consistent, the game of pro football has changed drastically over the years. It's changed so much that Kenny Stabler's buxom 103.4 passer rating of 1976 is far more impressive than Peyton Manning's silicone-enhanced 104.1 passer rating of 2005. In fact, the Cold, Hard Football Facts prove, after a thorough breast exam of the data, that Stabler's 1976 season was more impressive than Manning's 2004 campaign, when the Indy QB posted a record 121.4 passer rating.

 

It will help our cause of putting passer rating in historical context if we first take a little look at the evolution of football. In particular, there are four major eras that we need to consider. Passer ratings have climbed dramatically through each era, to the point that Staubach's 104.8 rating in his remarkable 1971 championship season was more statistically impressive than Steve Young's 112.8 in his remarkable 1994 championship campaign.

 

Here's the quick overview of the history of football and the evolution of passer rating. We start by placing football in these four broad historical categories. You can also look at a year-by-year breakdown of league-wide passer ratings and individual passer-rating leaders. (If you really dig data, you can tool around with this sortable Excel spreadsheet that provides all kinds of historic passer-rating data.)

 

This is the period of NFL football before the modern quarterback. In the Prehistoric Era, any offensive back on any given play might have been called upon to take the snap from center, run with the ball, pass the ball or catch the ball. No one player was expected to take snaps and throw the football on every play. For these reasons, we've dismissed the Prehistoric Era from our analysis of passer rating.

 

Football began to take its modern shape in the 1940s and 1950s. It was in the 1940s that the T formation gave offense its modern form, with a single quarterback who took the snap from center and became a team's designated passing specialist. Some teams developed the modern passing attack more quickly than others, and some quarterbacks grew far more adept at the new game than others. It's in this period that you see the first great passers, Hall of Famers such as Washington's Slingin' Sammy Baugh (pictured here), Sid Luckman of Chicago and Cleveland's remarkable Otto Graham. You also see a dramatic difference in their passing performances and those of the rest of the league. Players like Baugh, Luckman and Graham put up passing numbers competitive by modern standards, even as the rest of the league struggled to pass the ball effectively.

 

1940s – 47.8

1950s – 58.8

 

Defenses adapted to the new form of football, and by the late 1960s, they dominated the game. In the early 1960s, scoring in the NFL was comparative to scoring in the modern NFL (even if passing remained less common). But it grew increasingly tougher to score over the next 15 to 18 years. The stingiest defenses in modern NFL history all played in this era. The Dead Ball Era bottomed out in 1977, in a year that featured both the best scoring defense and worst scoring offense in modern NFL history. The 1977 season also featured the single lowest league-wide passer rating of the past 49 years (60.7), providing further evidence that 1977 was in fact the depths of the Dead Ball Era. The Dead Ball Era is defined by guys like Ken Stabler (pictured here) and Bob Griese. Their numbers may be unimpressive by today's standards, but in many cases, they were mind-boggling in the context of their era.

 

1960s – 69.4

1970s – 65.2

 

The NFL gave a shot of Viagra (and maybe a few Pam Anderson pin-ups) to its impotent offenses following the 1977 season. Defenses were allowed to hit receivers only within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Blocking rules were liberalized so that offensive linemen could make greater use of their arms and hands. Common moves like the head slap by defensive linemen were outlawed. Scoring shot up immediately. So did passing statistics. Passer ratings have continued to climb in the 21st century, as the league has made continuing efforts to boost scoring, most notably after the 2003 season in the wake of the Indy-New England AFC title game. The three years with the highest league-wide passer rating in NFL history were 2004 (82.8), 2002 (80.4) and 2005 (80.1).

 

1980s – 74.4

1990s – 77.3

2000s – 79.1

 

Armed with this knowledge – and a few glossy shots of a Madames Anderson and Russell we decided to break down the list of all-time passer-rating leaders and put it in historical context. (You can tool around with the mother's milk spreadsheet here, or just follow our lead below.)

 

First, we wanted to look at the all-time leaders based solely upon passer rating. The list below is filled mostly by the names of modern gunslingers that contemporary football fans know well: Manning, Montana, Marino and Young. (Keep in mind that this is not the complete passer rating leaders list. For the sake of historic comparison, we've included only players who led the league in passer rating in an individual season ... so a guy like Daunte Culpepper, who put up a 110.9 in 2004, is not on the list because he finished second that year to Peyton Manning.)

 

Player (Team)	Year	Rating
Peyton Manning (Indy)	2004	121.4
Steve Young (San Francisco)	1994	112.8
Joe Montana (San Francisco)	1989	112.4
Milt Plum (Cleveland)	1960	110.4
Sammy Baugh (Washington)	1945	109.9
Kurt Warner (St. Louis Rams)	1999	109.2
Dan Marino (Miami)	1984	108.9
Sid Luckman (Chicago)	1943	107.5
Steve Young (San Francisco)	1992	107.0
Randall Cunningham (Minnesota)	1998	106.0
Bart Starr (Green Bay)	1966	105.0
Roger Staubach (Dallas)	1971	104.8
Y.A. Tittle (N.Y. Giants)	1963	104.8
Steve Young (San Francisco)	1997	104.7
Bart Starr (Green Bay)	1968	104.3
Chad Pennington (N.Y. Jets)	2002	104.2
Peyton Manning (Indy)	2005	104.1
Ken Stabler (Oakland)	1976	103.4
Brian Griese (Denver)	2000	102.9
Charley Conerly (N.Y. Giants)	1959	102.7

 

There are a few surprises here and there, but generally speaking, the Top 20 is clearly weighted in favor of modern players. This reinforces the belief among many that today's quarterbacks are better than ever.

 

But they're not.

 

At least, not necessarily. The truth is that it has simply become easier to pass in recent years.

 

Proof of the ease at which players can pass compared with past years is found here, in our "evolution of the passer rating." In addition to showing the individual passer rating leaders in each year since 1940, it shows the league-wide passer ratings over the same period. After a dip in the 1970s, the league-wide passer rating has risen steadily over the past nearly 30 years.

 

So instead of simply accepting the individual passer ratings at face value, we decided to compare all of the passer rating leaders over the past 66 years in the context of their time.

 

Basically, we looked at the league-wide passer rating in each season. We then looked at the passer rating of the individual leader that season. We then ranked every quarterback based upon the percentage by which he exceeded the league-wide rating that year.

 

It gives us a completely different list of leaders. We feel this list is, in fact, a more accurate portrayal of the merits of each quarterback. Players such as Graham and Staubach, for example, earn the respect they should be accorded by modern football fans. Instead of looking at their numbers through the lens of the 21st century NFL, we look at their numbers in the context of their era.

 

 

*When we calculated the list, the top six spots were all held by players in the 1940s. This immediately jumped out as a statistical anomaly. There's a good reason why passers in the 1940s ruled the list: Only a few teams had truly adopted the modern T formation and only a few passers developed early on compared with their competitors on other teams. World War II also created a number of statistical anomalies, as many of the best players were serving in the military. For these reasons, we dismissed all results from the 1940s.

 

Like a Pam Anderson sex video, this new list of passing leaders should be an eye-opener to many football fans.

 

This context makes you realize, for example, that Dan Marino did not invent the NFL passing attack back in the 1980s. In fact, his record-shattering 1984 season doesn't even qualify as a Top 20 passing season when we consider his numbers in the context of their time. (Marino posted a 108.9 passer rating in 1984, exceeding the league-wide rating of 76.1 by 43.1 percent.)

 

You should stand in awe instead of another Miami quarterback, Bob Griese, a guy who tossed 22 TD passes and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt in a year in which the league-wide passer rating barely surpassed 60. That's a full 25 percent less than the league-wide ratings in the 21st century. Clearly, Griese faced handicaps that Marino did not.

 

Context is important for anyone who hopes to more accurately gauge players throughout the various eras of the NFL. Performers like Staubach and Graham may not impress fans today – until you look at how they fared relative to the standards of the time.

 

It's like staring at Jane Russell and wondering ... what would those mighty jugs look like if Dr. Silicone got a hold of them? Or you could just admire them for what they are. And that's pretty damn good, too.

 

* The evolution of passer rating

* The top 10 post-merger passing seasons

* Upload the sortable spreadsheet of league-wide and individual passer-ratings leaders (1940-2005)