Mother Of All Stats Gets Hammered Like Drunken Old MILF

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 14, 2013



Our cheesy old 1970s icon pal Barry Manilow was a little more freaky than you might think.

 

Remember the cheesy old 1970s song Copacabana? At its core, it’s really just a song about a drunken, washed up old cougar named Lola, who was a showgirl.

But that was 30 years ago. When they used to have a show. (Oh, and by the way, if you want to while away a lazy Monday morning, google "Copacabana Beach." That search gets interesting real fast.)

We thought of washed up hags and MILFs everywhere when our own Mother of All Stats, Passer Rating Differential, got hammered like cosmo-swilling cougar Mrs. Stiffler in the divisional round.

On the bright side, our cautious expectations for the favored teams this week means we’re still 5-3 against with the spread with our all-powerful Real and Spectacular picks at CHFF Insider this postseason, despite the drunken stumble of Passer Rating Differential this week.

We need just one more ATS victory in the final three games to make us a perfect 8 for 8 ATS in our history: .500+ ATS in four straight regular seasons and .500+ ATS in four straight regular seasons, picking every game, every week.

Regardless, it was not a great week for Passer Rating Differential.

Teams that entered the divisional round better in PRD went 1-3 straight up this weekend – in other words, Passer Rating Differential was 1-3 in our Predictive Rate of Victory category.

Passer Rating Differential alone predicted the winner in 61.6 percent of NFL games this year, and was on fire down the stretch. It accurately predicted the winner in 79 of 114 games (.693) from Week 11 through the wildcard round, all by its little lonesome.

So the 1-3 record this week was a clear outlier. Tempering the damage was the fact that teams better in PRD were 2-2 against the spread, which was good news for our aptly named Real and Spectacular picks.

But here are the overall results in the divisional round:

  • Denver (+25.9 in PRD this year) lost to Baltimore (+5.8), 38-35
  • Green Bay (+31.5) lost to San Francisco (+23.2), 45-31
  • Seattle (+28.8) lost to Atlanta (+22.0), 30-28
  • New England (+10.7) beat Houston (+9.3), 41-28

Yes, only the Evil Empire came through for Passer Rating Differential as a predictor in the divisional round.

PRD was also just 2-2 in what we call Correlation to Victory. That is, teams that posted the higher passer rating – or better Passer Rating Differential – went 2-2 this weekend.

This record was a VERY dramatic outlier for Passer Rating Differential: the only week all year teams with a better passer rating did not win at least half of all games, though clearly the small sample size makes this outcome more likely.

Teams better in PRD were 213-46 (.822) including playoffs heading into the divisional around and an incredible 47-5 since Week 15 (.904), according to our Correlation to Victory table at CHFF Insider.

That wasn’t the case in the divisional around, where it went just 2-2:

  • Baltimore (116.2 rating) beat Denver (88.3), 38-35
  • New England (115.0) beat Houston (90.6), 41-28
  • Seattle (109.1) lost to Atlanta (93.8), 30-28
  • Green Bay (91.5) lost to San Francisco (91.2), 45-31

That’s right, folks. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers narrowly edged out Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers in passer rating.

But, remember, passer rating is NOT a quarterback rating, folks. It measures only passing.

And as we all saw, Kaepernick was truly electric in that game, with an NFL-record 181 rushing yards by a quarterback.

Fortunately, we have Real Quarterback Rating and it measures all aspects of QB play, including rushing yards, rushing TDs, sacks and fumbles, plus traditional passing indicators.

And in this indicator, which is even more important than Passer Rating Differential, Kaepernick and the 49ers easily outclassed Rodgers and the Packers.

In fact, the historic rushing yards and additional two rushing TDs propel Kaepernick dramatically up the charts in Real QB Rating, while Rodgers, with limited impact with his feet, took a slight step back

  • Rodgers posted a 90.8 Real Quarterback Rating
  • Kaepernick posted a 116.4 Real Quarterback Rating

Real QB Rating, by the way, is the controversial (among the ignorant) but incredibly valuable Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats that, among other things, helps statistically justify Tim Tebow’s 8-5 record last year and proves why Rex Ryan the Jets f’ed up this year with Mark Sanchez on the field and Tebow on the bench.

It also quantifies unlike any other indicator the incredible dual-threat performance we saw out of Kaepernick Saturday night against Green Bay. A 116.4 Real QB Rating is extraordinarily rare.

More importantly, Real Quarterback Rating is the only indicator in football, other than final score, that’s actually more important than passer rating.

Teams better in Real QB Rating – in other words, teams better in Real QB Rating Differential – went 3-1 in the divisional round (Seattle-Atlanta the only outlier).

Teams better in Real QB Rating Differential are now 7-1 in the playoffs and 52-4 (.929) since Week 15. They are an incredible 225-38 (.856) overall since the start off the 2012 season, according to our Correlation to Victory table at CHFF Insider.

In other words: winning in the NFL is all about the quarterback, folks. It’s no more complex than that. Real QB Rating helps us measure the impact of the new wave of running QBs.


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