Monday Morning Waterboy: quantifying INTs

The results show that there was great variation in the average number of expected points lost per interception thrown.

 

For example, Josh Freeman and Tom Brady rarely threw interceptions last year: just 10 between the two of them. But they were usually very critical picks that wiped about 2.5 points off the board. At the other end of the spectrum, AFC South rivals David Garrard and Peyton Manning threw plenty of picks last year by modern standards (a total of 32). But those picks generally cost their teams an average of just over 0.5 points, both among the very lowest in the league.

 

A few other things stand out:

 

ONE - In part-time duty, Jason Campbell threw only eight interceptions – and, on average, limited their impact. His interceptions only cost his team a total of 3.1 expected points – an average of 0.38 per interception.

 

TWO - In 2010, not only did Joe Flacco keep his interception total in check, but he didn't tend to throw interceptions that killed promising drives. Of his 10 interceptions, only one occurred after his team had driven beyond the opposing 40. Of course, this begs the question of whether he was setting his opponents up with great field positin with interceptions in his own end – as stated, that analysis will come in the next few weeks. Flacco's interceptions cost his team a total of only 10 expected points.

 

THREE - We all know rookie QBs struggle in the NFL and St. Louis's Sam Bradford was no exception. His 15 interceptions cost his team an average of 2.23 expected points lost – for a league-high total of 33.5 EP lost.

 

FOUR - Among elite quarterbacks, Michael Vick ranked among the best in terms of both average points lost per INT (0.66) and total points lost (4.0). Of course, he played only 12 of 16 games. So the total (and perhaps average) might have been higher had he played a full schedule. But the numbers were quite impressive in Vick's explosive rebound year.

 

FIVE - Ben Roethlisberger always ranks much higher in efficiency indicators than most people other than the Cold, Hard Football Facts realize. And this list is another example. Big Ben threw just 5 INT in his 12 regular-season games last year, for a total of 7.5 EP lost, among the best in the NFL. Of course, he saved his biggest mistake of the year for the worst possible moment: a pick-six in the Super Bowl that essentially proved the difference between victory and defeat.

 

This metric is still something of a work in progress. But, it does allow us to start quantifying and differentiating the impact of turnovers. Instead of labeling all interceptions (or turnovers for that matter) with the same broad brush, we can start to tease out which ones really set a team back and which ones are nothing more than a blip on a stat sheet.

 

We still don't know if, in 1997, Bledsoe threw an interception every time the Patriots were in the red zone We're guessing no. But at times it certainly felt like he did.