Monday Morning Waterboy: grim picture for rising teams

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jun 26, 2011

By Luis DeLoureiro

Cold, Hard Football Facts spiked water boy

To many, late June conjures up images of children frolicking amidst never-ending sunlight; sitting on the front porch sipping a refreshing Arnold Palmer, listening to the melodic song of chirping birds.

To the good folks at CHFF, late June represents the dark days between the NFL draft and the start of training camp. A time when – even when there's not a lockout – football is at a complete standstill, and those of us who don't have the life skills necessary to keep ourselves busy are left with a solid month of dreaded family time.

Alas, we can fill a small part of the void by digging for topics - as trivial as they may seem to the outside world – and providing the NFL addict with consistent, geeked-out and, in the overall scheme of things, generally meaningless analysis.

Today, we'll take a look at the 2010 overachievers and paint a grim picture of their 2011 prospects.

The Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and St. Louis Rams made improvements of at least six wins from 2009 to 2010. This has fans of the Buccaneers and Rams thinking playoffs in 2011. Meanwhile, Chiefs fans are hoping for further improvement on last year's playoff run.

Well, we don't want to shatter the hopes and dreams of football fans in Missouri and central Florida.

So we're going to recommend that they skip this article and check back tomorrow.

History Not On Their Side

History suggests that further improvement is not in the offing for 2011.

Between 2002 and 2009, 30 teams experienced increases of at least five wins from one season to the next. The 2008 Miami Dolphins led the way with a 10-win improvement from 2007 to 2008 – followed by the 2004 Steelers (a nine-win increase) and the 2004 Chargers (an eight-win increase).

Most of those 30 teams were unable to build on that momentum.

In fact, most went in the other direction.

The 30 teams average three fewer wins the season after the five win improvement. If that doesn't sound like much, consider that three games represent just under 20% of an NFL season.

A shocking 24 of the 30 teams (80%) won fewer games the season after the improvement – 13 of them experienced drop-offs of at least four wins.

Only two of the 30 teams – the 2003 Panthers and the 2006 Bears – managed to improve their win total for a second successive season. In a positive twist, both teams appeared in the Super Bowl in the second successive winning year.

Below is the full list of the 30 teams that experienced an increase of at least five wins from one season to the next between 2002 and 2009. The table also includes whether their win total increased or decreased the season following the five-win improvement.

Team	Year of Upswing	Win Increase	Next year
Baltimore Ravens	2006	7	-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2005	6	-7
Green Bay Packers	2007	5	-7
Cincinnati Bengals	2009	6	-6
Cleveland Browns	2007	6	-6
New York Jets	2006	6	-6
Kansas City Chiefs	2003	5	-6
Miami Dolphins	2008	10	-4
Pittsburgh Steelers	2004	9	-4
San Diego Chargers	2009	5	-4
Carolina Panthers	2008	5	-4
St Louis Rams	2003	5	-4
Dallas Cowboys	2003	5	-4
San Diego Chargers	2004	8	-3
New Orleans Saints	2006	7	-3
Atlanta Falcons	2004	6	-3
San Diego Chargers	2006	5	-3
New York Giants	2005	5	-3
Miami Dolphins	2005	5	-3
Atlanta Falcons	2008	7	-2
Baltimore Ravens	2008	6	-2
New Orleans Saints	2009	5	-2
Buffalo Bills	2002	5	-2
Green Bay Packers	2009	5	-1
Cincinnati Bengals	2003	6	0
New York Jets	2008	5	0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2007	5	0
New England Patriots	2003	5	0
Chicago Bears	2005	6	2
Carolina Panthers	2002	6	4

One of the more interesting cases in the above list is the 2006 Ravens. They experienced a massive eight-win drop-off the season after their 2006 improvement – the largest drop-off of any team in the time period analyzed.

In fact, in one of the strongest arguments that stability at quarterback is crucial in the NFL, the Ravens win total between 2005 and 2008 bounced around like Tiger Woods after a pound of oysters – jumping from six wins in 2005, to 13 in 2006, then down to five in 2007.

In the 2008 draft, the Ravens drafted Joe Flacco and proceeded to have another six-game win increase that fall. With the stability that Flacco provides, the Ravens have now posted three consecutive winning seasons - twice reaching double digits.

Is There An Explanation For The Drop-Off?

Well, the simple answer is "regression toward the mean" – the phenomenon that if a metric is extreme on one measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on a second measure. (As an aside, sentences like that last one are the reason that some of the geekier members of our team were able to legally rent a car before they lost their virginity).

That certainly explains some of it – as do injuries, personnel changes, and pure luck.

But, schedule difficulty (and, to no small degree, the hapless NFC West) certainly played a contribution role.

We have not done a full-scale analysis of all 30 teams that experienced a significant win increase from one year to the next – an endeavor that will likely require several hours of dedicated focus, a difficult task when you have the attention span of sheetrock.

But there were a few notable examples where the schedule played a major role in a team's improvement.

2008 Dolphins

The 2008 Dolphins took advantage of a schedule that featured eight games against the AFC and NFC West - the two worst divisions in football that year with a combined winning percentage of 35%.

This schedule advantage – along with Tom Brady's season ending injury – was a major contributor to their 10 win increase from 2007 to 2008. The Dolphins went 7-1 against the AFC and NFC West and 4-4 against the rest of their schedule.

Unfortunately, in 2009, the Dolphins replaced the aforementioned 2008 games against the AFC and NFC West with four games against the AFC South (with a league best 59% winning percentage) and four games against the NFC South (with a 52% winning percentage).

The Dolphins have not returned the playoffs since the 2008 season – which appears to be something of a fluke right now.

2007 Browns

The 2007 Browns went 10-6 – a six-win increase from their 2006 season.

Some have suggested that Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards sold their souls to the devil in exchange for their first Pro Bowl appearances that season.

While this may be true, the 2007 Browns also benefited greatly from an easy schedule. They played eight out of division games against the AFC East (44% winning percentage in 2007) and the NFC West (41% winning percentage – worst in the league).

In 2008, their non-division schedule took a brutal turn when they had to play the two best divisions in the NFL – the AFC South (a shocking 66% winning percentage) and the NFC East (an almost equally shocking 63%).

The result was a 4-12 record.

Like the Dolphins, the Browns have not made the playoffs since the season of their improvement. Unfortunately, unlike the Dolphins, the Browns didn't even get to the playoffs in 2007 - the year of the improvement.

Today's Bucs, Chiefs and Rams

So, did any of the three 2010 overachievers benefit from an easy schedule?

The Buccaneers and Chiefs definitely did. They both feasted on the weak NFC West – going a combined 8-0 against the four teams in that division.

The Bucs also played the Panthers twice and took advantage of the bottom feeding Ohio teams in the AFC North.

St. Louis was a slightly different story in that, despite the improvement, they still had a losing record. Their six win increase was simply a function of the Rams' making their way back to mediocrity.

Fans in St. Louis are probably hoping the team follows the pattern of the 2008 Ravens – who improved by six wins after drafting Joe Flacco and have not had a losing record since.

Finally, if you want to guess who the 2011 overachiever will be (there are always a couple), just look at who's playing against the NFC West. (The answer, by the way, is the NFC East and the AFC North. So, based only on the schedule, some teams that would be candidates for a big improvement would include the Redskins, Bengals and Browns).

By Kerry Byrne

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