Monday (Afternoon) Hangover

This week's Monday Morning (now afternoon) Hangover was pieced together in bleary-eyed wonderment after a Sunday night booze binge celebrating our own greatness.

 

We went way out on a limb (always dangerous when your staff averages 5-foot-7, 250 pounds per man) back in August when we predicted that the 2008 Cardinals would win the organization's first division title in 33 years.

 

Given the history of the worst franchise in football, it was no small claim. But here's the best part: We not only predicted they'd win the NFC West, we boasted "they will walk away with the division crown."

 

Well, here we are after Week 14, with three games still to play, and the Cardinals joined the mighty Giants and Titans on Sunday as the first teams to clinch division titles and playoff spots. (Of course, when pondering our predictive greatness, it pays to ignore the fact that we didn't have the 11-2 Giants or the 12-1 Titans reaching the playoffs.)

 

At the other end of the NFL success spectrum, the Lions continue to wallow in their own filth. You know it's bad in Detroit when even the "legitimate media" Free-Press is reduced to turning to the Cold, Hard Football Facts to quantify the infinite futility of the Lions.

 

We talked about Tony Romo's underwhelming performance under pressure earlier today.

 

But it's worth noting that the 2008 Steelers defense is playing as well as any in modern times. In fact, it's playing as well as the Steel Curtain of the 1970s, perhaps the most celebrated defense in history.

Here's a look at how the 2008 Steelers stack up against the 1970s Steel Curtain, in terms of yards per play. For the purpose of this brief exercise, we defined the Steel Curtain as beginning with Pittsburgh's first playoff team in 1972 and ending with Pittsburgh's last Super Bowl of the era in 1979.

 

 

It's even more impressive when you consider that the NFL changed the rules of the game in 1978, making it dramatically tougher for teams to play defense. Considering the context of the times, you could argue that the 2008 Steelers defense is better – on a yards per play basis – than any of the Steel Curtain units that thrived in the Dead Ball Era (pre-1978).

 

Friend of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, ran a similar study this weekend and found that the Live Ball Era (1978-present) defensive record is held by the 1979 Buccaneers, who surrendered just 3.89 yards per play. So the 2008 Steelers (3.92 YPP) are certainly within striking distance of that modern record for defensive stinginess.

For those of you too young or too deprived of cultural enrichment to have lived through the 1980s, this is kind of what it was all about: super-catchy synth-pop tunes with bouncy bass lines featuring effeminate British dudes skipping down the street. Yup. Those were the JoBoxers. Those were the 1980s.

 

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Sure, they sucked in Chicago and St. Louis, too, but in the 20 years since they moved to the desert, the Arizona/Phoenix Cardinals have redefined horrible.

 

The Cardinals have gone 114-212 since moving to Arizona in 1988, including 13 seasons with at least 10 losses.

 

All of that has changed this season in large part to a rejuvenated Kurt Warner. With 279 passing yards on Sunday, Warner went over the 4,000-yard (4,020) mark in a season for the third time in his career (and first time since 2001, the last year he played a full season).

 

After leading the Cardinals to the NFC West title, Warner will now return to the playoffs where he has a 5-2 record and a career 92.2 passer rating.

 

With eight wins on the season, the Cardinals have clinched their first back-to-back non-losing seasons since the 1983 and 1984 St. Louis Cardinals went 8-7-1 and 9-7.

 

It's a shame that NFL games aren't played for just 15 minutes. If they were, the Lions would have won six of their last seven.

 

Alas, at the conclusion of the full 60 minutes, they were once again losers, falling to a pathetic 0-13 for the season. A Jason Hanson field goal was the only score of the first frame, and Detroit retained a 3-point lead through three quarters. But Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson, playing in relief of the injured Gus Frerotte, threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe that put the Vikings ahead to stay.

 

There was one bright spot for the Lions, however: They picked off Frerotte twice in the first half, doubling their interception total for the season for one of the worst pass defenses ever to step on the fields of the NFL.

 

Was it just a bad game for the Giants, or a cause for concern in the Meadowlands?

Time will tell, but it's worth asking the question.

 

After all, this seemed like an ideal opportunity for the Giants: they were playing at home against a barely-above-.500 division rival with a chance to clinch the division title (which they did anyway when Dallas lost later in the day) and put it in cruise control for the month of December. They even had the benefit of wild and windy conditions that seemed custom-made for New York's Stone Age offense and a detriment to Philly's more wide-open style.

 

Instead, the Giants offense failed to score a single point for the first 58 minutes of the game – and only a tactical gaffe by the Eagles coaching staff allowed the G-Men to score at all.

 

Instead, the Eagles won by mastering New York's smash-mouth style:

But here's the most concerning part: Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb seemed to handle the conditions fairly well, completing 19 of 30 for 191 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Giants quarterback Eli Manning, meanwhile, was flustered during one of his worst performances of the year, with season-lows in completion percentage (48.1) and YPA (4.6).

 

The pigskin "pundits," including the Cold, Hard Football Facts, assumed all season that the Giants were built for December and January. But the first round of evidence here in December indicates otherwise – it indicates a team that's grown progressively less effective in recent weeks, especially on the ground.

 

After three straight games topping 200 yards on the ground, the Giants have now rushed for 87, 108 and 88 yards in their last three games.

 

Apparently all the time Brett Favre spends talking strategy with the Lions has rubbed off ... on the Jets.

 

En route to losing to the 49ers, the Jets were very Lionsesque on third down, converting just 1 of 10 and picking up just 10 total first downs all day – against one of the worst defenses in football.

 

In the first half the Jets nearly had as many three and outs (3) as they did first downs (5).

 

Favre completed 20 passes on the day, but only two went to starting receivers Laveranues Coles and Jericho Cotchery. Most went to running backs and tight ends, while the Jets were humiliated in the stat department: they generated just 182 yards of offense – less than half the 375 yards produced by the 49ers.

 

San Francisco also dominated time of possession 39:49 to 20:11, including an almost nine-minute advantage in the third quarter, when the Jets an a total of seven offensive plays.

 

Maybe it is something in the Bay Area water: this is the second bad loss for the Jets in northern California this season. They also lost to Oakland, 16-13, back in Week 7.

 

Since handing the Titans their lone loss with a 34-13 win back in Week 12, the Jets have been outscored 58-31 by the Broncos and 49ers.

 

Can a brotha get a touchdown?

 

For a third straight game, the Browns didn't reach the end zone, settling for three field goals while allowing four TDs.

 

Actually, Cleveland didn't even reach the red zone, never getting any closer than Tennessee's 22-yard line. Over their last three contests, all losses, the Browns have managed just seven field goals. Their current losing streak matches the one that started this forgettable season for Cleveland, both in length (3 games) and offensive ineptitude (failing to top 10 points).

 

After guiding the team to a 10-6 record a year ago, coach Romeo Crennel seems unlikely to keep his job. Wonder what Sam Rutigliano's doing these days?

 

Deion Branch didn't score a touchdown all season and had scored multiple times only once in his 32 games for the Seahawks.

 

But with the added motivation of facing the team that traded him, he nearly led an upset, catching four passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns.

 

In the end, though, Branch was overshadowed by one of his replacements in New England. Wes Welker recorded season highs of 12 receptions and 134 yards, and he also caught a 2-point conversion pass that made the margin of victory a field goal. Welker leads the NFL with 96 receptions – the same number he caught in three years combined in Miami – and will likely top 100 receptions for the second straight year in New England (he led the NFL last year with 112 catches). But he's scored just one touchdown this year.

 

Ironically, the game wasn't decided until New England recovered a fumble caused by a blitzing Brandon Meriweather – the player taken with the first-round pick acquired from Seattle for Branch.

 

These guys are hopeless Colts sucks-ups and make no excuses for it, and their disdain for the Cold, Hard Football Facts seems to drip from every pore of their aw-shucks Woody Boyd of a Midwestern existence.

 

But they also produce one of the most creative fan blogs on the web, and recently moved from their own little blog to become a part of the MVN Network, which is apparently some sort of collection of fan blogs. Their 2007 Star Wars predictions, in which they likened each NFL team to a character from the movie series, burned up the 'net last year and was better and more creative than anything ESPN has produced in like 10 years.

 

The Colts improved to 9-4 after stomping the hapless Bengals Sunday, and appear to be hitting their stride at just hte right time: they've won six straight, including back-to-back victories over top rivals New England and Pittsburgh.

 

Yet Indianapolis continues to win despite any real appearance of a running game.

 

After gaining just 57 yards on 20 carries, the Colts now rank 31st in both yards per game (78.1) and yards per attempt (3.43). Both are the lowest totals of the Peyton Manning Era.

 

The Colts have become known for running their "stretch" play to the right side, and have ranked near the top of the league over the last few years in running plays off the right end. In fact, since 2000, Indianapolis has averaged 4.1 YPA on runs to the right side.

 

This season, however, whether due to Manning's knee injury or just overall struggles, the Colts have not enjoyed the same success, averaging 3.3 YPA to the right, while making fewer attempts that way, too.

 

 

 

Late-season road games against Buffalo had been problematic for the Dolphins in the past, as they were just 2-7 in Orchard Park when playing after December 1.

 

But this game was is the climate-controlled Rogers Centre in Toronto, offsetting much of the usual home-field advantage. In fact, some of the fans were rooting for Miami running back Ricky Williams, who formerly played for the city's CFL entry, the Argonauts.

 

Williams (40 yards and a negated 14-yard TD run) and Ronnie Brown (70 yards) helped to control the clock, delivering a methodical victory for the Dolphins. Miami held the ball for over 15 minutes more than Buffalo (37:31-22:29) and moved into a three-way tie atop the AFC East.

 

Perhaps the Bills had listened to their fans, who petitioned the team last week to open up the dome at the Rogers Centre, and they might have had a fighting chance against the warm-weather 'Fins: the temperature outside Sunday was a brisk 16 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

Of course, the Bills ignored fans back in 1999 when they benched Doug Flutie in favor of Rob Johnson entering the playoffs ... and we all know how that worked out for them.

 

It's not often Drew Brees is out-passed by his opponent.

Then again, it's not often we see a rookie quarterback as good as Atlanta's Matt Ryan. Despite losing to New Orleans, Ryan turned in one of the best performances of his young career throwing for a career high 315 yards while completing over 70 percent of his passes (24 of 33) for the second straight week.

 

While it's true Ryan is enjoying the success of the modern passing game, it's impossible to not be impressed with how well the rookie signal caller has performed. Ryan has tossed more interceptions than touchdowns only twice in his first 13 games, and only once has he completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes.

 

We'll have some more on Ryan later this week, as we compare his rookie campaign to that of some of the more notables quarterbacks in the game. In the meantime, his Falcons are locked in a battle for a wildcard playoff spot with the Cowboys, the Bears and the loser of Monday night's Tampa-Carolina game.

 

The Saints, meanwhile, might find that their win over Atlanta was too little, too late.

 

Houston's Kevin Walter is the best receiver you've never heard of – or at least he is this year.

 

The sixth-year player has been over-shadowed by Pro Bowl teammate Andre Johnson, but has put together two great seasons and had a breakout performance against the tough Packers pass defense Sunday, hauling in six passes for 146 yards and 1 score. It was just the second 100-yard game of his career and helped quarterback Matt Schaub to the first 400-yard game (414) of his career.

 

With 55 receptions, 851 yards, 15.5 yards per catch and 8 TDs through 13 games, Walter is on pace for his first 1,000-yard campaign and career bests in every category.

 

He'll smash the career highs he set in each category last year when he caught 65 passes for 800 yards, 12.3 yards per reception and 4 TDs.

 

In the biggest mystery of the 2008 season, the Broncos are 3-0 against the mighty NFC South, yet were outscored 64-29 in their previous two games against Kansas City and Oakland, the two pathetic bottom feeders of the dredge-sucking conglomeration that is the AFC West.

 

The Broncos needed a goal-line this week to hold on for a 24-17 win over the Chiefs and avenge their 33-19 loss earlier this year.

 

Considering the state of the Chiefs, neither the loss earlier this year nor the narrow victory on Sunday are good signs for the Broncos, who will redefine the term backing in the playoffs this year: the Broncos are 8-5, but have been outscored by 20 points this year (316-336). And there's still an outside chance they could lose the division by losing to the currently 5-8 Chargers in the season finale.