Monday Afternoon Hangover: stats and nuggets from Week 14

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 13, 2009



(The Monday Hangover is compiled by CHFF contributors and writers from around the blogosphere, including Deshawn Zombie of 18to88.com in Indianapolis, Mark Sandritter in Seattle, Bryn Swartz in Philadelphia, Tony Cocco in his cardboard-box kingdom in Boston, and our own beloved Chief Troll wherever he may be this week.)
 
This week's Monday Afternoon Hangover was pieced together after a long, road-tripping weekend that included way to many Yuengling Lagers, which in turn nearly led to a short stay in a Manhattan jail cell Sunday night.
 
But our wives don't need to know about that. So just keep that between you and us.

Minnesota 30, Cincinnati 10
This was the marquee matchup of the week and we picked the Bengals to win it in our Real and Spectacular Week 14 picks.
 
Instead, it turned into a great, total team win for Minnesota (hey, don't listen us).
 
The Vikings pretty much dominated from start to finish: they converted 8 of 14 third downs (57%) and ground out 142 rushing yards, while BrettFavre (17 of 30, 192 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) took a backseat to Minny's pre-Favre main man, Adrian Peterson (26 carries, 97 yards, 3.7 YPA, 2 TD).
 
Minnesota's troubled pass defense, meanwhile, celebrated the long-awaited return of star DB Antoine Winfield (9 tackles and a forced fumble) by holding Cincy's Carson Palmer to just 94 passing yards and a pathetic 3.8 YPA through the air.
 
Minnesota is now 11-2 and moved closer to clinching a first-round playoff bye. But there may be some concern Monday morning given BrettFavre's numbers over the past two games:
  • 47 for 75 (62.7%), 467 yards, 6.2 YPA, 3 TD, 3 INT, 5 sacks, 76.9 passer rating.
December and January haven't exactly been the best months for Old Yeller over the past decade and his numbers in Minnesota's two December games so far have started to show the same disturbing trend. – TC
 
Philadelphia 45, Giants 38
In an offensive shootout that Al Michaels called a "street game" – OK, he's lost his fastball since the "do you believe in miracles" days – the Eagles and Giants combined for 886 yards of offense and 83 points, the most in the history of the rivalry.
 
Big plays sparked the Eagles, as they have all year: DeSean Jackson scored on a 72-yard punt return and on a 60-yard reception, becoming just the third player in NFL history to score eight touchdowns of 50 or more yards in a single season (Crazy Legs Hirsch, Devin Hester).
 
Philly cornerback Sheldon Brown added a 60-yard touchdown after scooping up a Brandon Jacobs fumble, tying a team record with his fifth career defensive touchdown.
 
The big plays ruined a career day for Giants quarterback Eli Manning. He completed 27 of 38 for 391 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT and a 130.5 passer rating – numbers that almost always spell victory (391 yards were a career high; the rating was the fourth best in his career).
 
But four lost fumbles, including two by Manning himself, ruined the effort. – BS
 
San Diego 20, Dallas 17
This was a tight matchup of two teams going the opposite direction in the month of December. But on the field in Dallas on this Sunday, they were near equals: the Chargers and Cowboys were separated by just six yards of offense, 10 seconds of possession time, one first down and, ultimately, just three points.
 
San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers proved the great difference maker in this, perhaps the most quietly outstanding season in history. In a clutch fourth quarter, he completed 7 of 8 passes for 114 yards, one TD and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. 
 
The Chargers were bolstered by the reemergence of Vincent Jackson in the passing game: his 7 catches for 120 yards almost equaled his total output over his past four games combined (9 for 147). The Rivers-Jackson combination has helped make the Chargers the highest scoring team in the AFC (362 points).
 
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have only themselves to blame for the loss: The Cowboys failed to score a touchdown on three straight rush attempts from the San Diego 1 yard line in the second quarter, turning the ball over on downs. The Cowboys quickly grabbed a pick from Rivers. But on their next possession, Nick Folk missed a 42-yard field goal wide left. – DZ
 
Indianapolis 28, Denver 16
Denver is a Top 10 team in Defensive Passer Rating and ranks No. 2 in passing yards allowed (183.3 YPG).
 
That defensive unit dominated Peyton Manning for much of this game on Sunday: the Indy quarterback threw three picks, completed just 47.6 percent of his passes, averaged 5.3 YPA and posted a 65.6 passer rating – his worst performance of the year in every category. During one stretch, Manning completed just 2 of 14 passes for 15 yards.
 
But Indy also scored 28 points and won. The question is, "How?"
 
The answer is that not matter how well the Denver D performed on first and second downs, they couldn't contain Manning on third and fourth downs.
 
Indy converted 10 of 17 (59%) third and fourth downs, while Manning completed 8 of 14 for 95 yards and three TDs on third down, with a rating of 117.6.
 
The Colts have been the most clutch team in football this year – and this win over Denver was another example. They simply made the plays they needed to make to win, even on a day when their quarterback was not at his best at all times.
 
Denver receiver Brandon Marshall set an NFL record with 21 catches (for 200 yards). But Indy defenders kept the star from making the big play – as evidenced by his meager average of 9.5 yards per reception.
 
Indy's "bend but don't break" philosophy (the Colts lead the NFL in Bendability) was on full display. They Colts allowed Denver into their territory nine times, but surrendered only16 points in the process. – DZ
 
New England 20, Carolina 10
Tom Brady should insist to his supermodel wife that the name "Wes" or "Welker" must appear somewhere in their newborn son's name.
 
Welker hauled in 10 Brady passes for 105 yards in poor weather conditions and in an otherwise ugly win for New England. Welker leads the NFL with 105 receptions and joins Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, and Herman Moore as the only players in NFL history with three consecutive 100-catch seasons. (Harrison did it four times in a row.)
 
Even more amazing is the fact that Welker has caught those 105 passes in just 11 games after missing two starts early in the season. Other than Welker's great effort, New England's offense was sluggish and mistake-prone (three first-half turnovers). However, an uncharacteristically strong running attack (40 carries, 185 yards, 4.6 YPA) helped the Patriots scratch out enough points to earn the win.
 
Carolina's fourth-ranked rushing attack ripped off 5.2 YPA against the New England defense (24 carries, 126 yards), but as always, the team's inability to move the ball effectively through the air doomed them.
 
Matt Moore (15 for 30, 197 yards, 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT, 82.2 rating) avoided the ball-breaking interceptions that have typified Jake Delhomme's season, but he completed  only 50 percent of his passes while the Panthers converted just 3 of 13 third down attempts.
 
Carolina also nullified their +3 advantage in the turnover department by committing 9 penalties – some of them momentum-changing killers – for 92 yards. – TC
 
New Orleans 26, Atlanta 23
The Saints won their second consecutive three-point game, becoming just the seventh team in NFL history to begin a season 13-0.
 
Drew Brees led the effort with another spectacular outing. He completed 31 of 40 passes (77.5%) for 296 yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT and a 122.5 passer rating.
 
Along the way, he tied a franchise record with his 120th touchdown pass – needing fewer than four complete seasons to do it. And, as noted earlier Monday, Brees leads the league in all the most important indicators of passing success.
 
The 26 points for New Orleans marked the team's second lowest total of the season. They now average 35.8 PPG and must score exactly 41 points over their last three games to tie the 2007 Patriots for the most points in a single season (589). – BS
 
Tennessee 47, St. Louis 7
Vince Young may have sparked the fire of Tennessee's resurgence, but Chris Johnson poured gasoline on it.
 
In the seven games following Tennessee's 59-0 Week 6 loss to New England, Johnson has rushed for 930 yards and eclipsed the 100-yard mark in every game.
 
Johnson has rushed for 1,626 yards this year, 347 more than the No. 2 player on the list (Steven Jackson, 1,279) and his 2,017 yards from scrimmage account for 43 percent of the Tennessee offense.
 
More impressively, he averages 5.98 yards per attempt after 272 carries. Only three players in history have surpassed that average with as many carries:
  • Jim Brown in 1963 – 291 for 1,863 yards (6.40 YPA)
  • Barry Sanders in 1997 – 335 for 2,053 yards (6.13 YPA)
  • O.J. Simpson in 1973 – 332 for 2,003 yards, (6.03 YPA)
All those guys are in the Hall of Fame. Johnson is also on pace to become just the sixth 2,000-yard rusher. – MS

Buffalo 16, Kansas City 10
In our Real and Spectacular Week 14 picks, we predicted a Buffalo victory in and expected long days for both offenses – but a little bit longer for the Chiefs.
 
That prediction played out to perfection, as each team found the end zone exactly once, while Buffalo's dominant pass defense, led by rookie Jairus Byrd's NFL-leading ninth interception, proved the difference.
 
Buffalo was No. 1 in the NFL in Defensive Passer Rating coming into this game, and they lived up to that billing with a dominant four-interception performance against Kansas City's Matt Cassel (26 of 43, 224 yard, 0 TD, 4 INT, 35.4 rating).
 
Cassel has submitted passer ratings of 14.6 and 35.4 in his last two starts, and has a season rating of just 68.3. Other than the fact he's proving a bust, the Cassel signing was a good move for the Chiefs.
 
Most of the offense on the day was provided by the running games. Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch combined for 183 yards on 32 carries (5.7 YPA) for the Bills, while Kansas City's Jamaal Charles (20 attempts, 143 yards, 7.15 YPA) ripped off a 76-yard touchdown run, making this the fifth consecutive game in which he's found the end zone. – TC
 
N.Y. Jets 26, Tampa Bay 3
Tampa rookie QB Josh Freeman set the expectations high in his first two career starts: he led the Bucs to their only win of the season (38-28 overGreen Bay), and then nearly pulled off a road upset against intra-state rival Miami the following week.
 
In his four starts since then, he's played like a rookie, submitting passer ratings of 36.5 or lower in three of those four games.
 
Freeman may have bottomed out Sunday against New York's fantastic pass defense, which ranked No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating coming into the game (and ranks No. 2 today).
 
The Jets sacked Freeman three times, intercepted him three times, and held him to just 93 yards passing and a 12.1 rating.
 
Offensively, the Jets relied on heavy doses of Thomas Jones (24 carries, 99 yards, 4.1 YPA, 2 TDs) and very small doses of QB Kellen Clemens (12 for 23, 111 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 65.7 rating), who replaced injured rookie Mark Sanchez for his first start since 2007.
 
The Jets have now won three in a row to climb back into the playoff picture after losing six of seven in the middle part of the season. – TC

Green Bay 21, Chicago 14
The Packers have been the ultimate statistical conundrum this season. They rank in the top ten in five of our seven Quality Stats, yet they've dropped three of their five games against Quality Opponents.
 
The Packers surrender 12.1 Yards Per Point allowed on our Bendability Index against Quality Opponents, a number that would rank last in the league over the course of a season. Against lesser foes, the Packers force opponents to march 16.4 Yards Per Point Allowed.
 
Even more drastic is Green Bay's Defensive Passer Rating vs. Quality and non-quality opponents. In their nine games against non-quality opponents, Green Bay has posted a Defensive Passer Rating of 49.50. Against Quality Opponents, that rating jumps to a dreadful 109.02. – MS
 
Baltimore 48, Detroit 3
There was nothing competitive about this game and one stat sums up the whole debacle for the Lions: Passer Rating Differential. The Lions were already last in the NFL in this category coming into the game and did nothing to improve their standing this week.
 
Lions quarterback Dante Culpepper posted a rating of 33.3 (16 of 34, 135 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT).  That's so bad that if he had just thrown all his passes into the stands, he would have posted a higher rating (39.6).
 
On the flip side, Baltimore's Joe Flacco had a very efficient game with a rating of 118.8 (13 of 20, 230 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT).
 
That's a difference in passer rating of 85.5 points. When you get a disparity that bad, the end result is usually a score like 48-3.
 
Baltimore's once proud defense has shown signs of wear and tear this season. In three games against the awful offenses of the Browns and Lions, they have allowed just 6 points (2.0 PPG). Against the other 10 teams on their schedule, they have allowed 209 (20.9 PPG). – DZ
 
Miami 14, Jacksonville 10
The Jags had every opportunity to beat a winning team at home for the first time all season and take a major step forward in the AFC wild-card race. 
 
But they just couldn't make a play when they needed it.
 
The Miami defense held Jacksonville to just 3 of 14 on third downs (21%). In the fourth quarter, needing just one touchdown to possibly save the franchise from relocation, the Jags managed to go 0 for 4 on third down and 1 for 2 on fourth.
 
Miami, meanwhile, surged to front of the wild-card pack, thanks to their seventh win their last 10 games since Chad Henne took over as quarterback. 
 
The second-year player doesn't do much well, but he does get the ball down the field more effectively than Chad Pennington did early in the year: Pennington dinked-and-dunked his way to an average of just 5.6 YPA this season, despite completing 68.9 percent of his passes. Henne has completed just 58.8 percent of his passes, but has averaged 6.3 YPA.
 
Looked at another way, Henne averages 10.7 yards per completion; Pennington averaged 8.1 yards per completion.
 
Perhaps the most important stat of the game is 60,457, the attendance in Jacksonville. It was easily the largest attendance the Jags have prodced all year, but well short of a sellout, despite playing a popular in-state rival in a virtual playoff game.  – DZ
 
Washington 34, Oakland 13
The Redskins had a breakout game all around against the embarrassment called the Raiders: They scored their most points since Week 5 of 2007, snapping a nine-game road losing streak in the process. The Redskins have now scored at least 30 points in consecutive games for the first time in three years.
 
Defensively, the Redskins held Oakland quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and JaMarcus Russell to just 4.8 yards per pass and recorded eight sacks, their most since 1990. – BS

Houston 34, Seattle 7
Seattle is two different teams at home and on the road. They're 4-2 at home this season (and 31-15 since 2004), but just 1-6 on the road, with the lone win against the lowly Rams.
 
The trip to Houston this week was another disaster: the Seahawks surrendered 24 points and 364 yards in the first half alone. It also marked the fourth time in seven road games that a Seattle opponent has racked up at least 400 yards (450 this week) and more than 30 points.
 
Seattle surrenders 14.8 PPG and 294.0 YPG at home this year. Those numbers spike to 411.4 YPG and 30.3 PPG on the road. – MS





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