Mental Mismatches A Smart Bet Against The Spread

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Oct 29, 2013



The Cold, Hard Football Facts Intelligence Index at CHFF Insider is a powerful way to separate big winners from big losers in the NFL and to consistently win games both straight up and, more importantly, against the spread. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have topped the Intelligence Index much of the season and remain No. 1 this week. No coincidence they're the only remaining unbeaten team in the NFL (and a nifty 5-3 ATS).

The Jacksonville Jaguars have resided in the Intelligence Index detention hall the entire season and remain No. 32 this week. No coincidence they're the only 0-8 team in the NFL (and a dreadful 1-7 ATS).

The Intelligence Index is our way to identify which teams are the best in situational football. Smart, well-coached teams do all the little things right in all phases of the game: master third downs, win the turnover battle, dominate in the red zone and excel on special teams. Dumb teams consistently fail in all these situations.

We rank every team in Intelligence, from No. 1, the smartest team, to No. 32, the dumbest.

Professor of Pigskin Jonathan Comey has identified 16 Mental Mismatches so far this season at CHFF Insider. That's when a smart teams plays a dumb team.

The smart teams are 14-2 straight up and a sterling 11-5 ATS (.688).

Perhaps most impressively, the smart teams consistently win in blowout fashion. The smart teams have been favored in all 16 of our Mental Mismatches, and by an average of 6.4 points.

The smart teams have won by an average of 15.8 points per game. In other words, they're beating the market by a rather comfortable margin.

The average score in our 16 Mental Mismatches has been 29.1 to 13.3, a margin of better than 2-to-1 for those of you keeping score at home.

Seventeen teams so far this season have won by 24+ points. Seven of these 17 blowouts were previewed among our 16 Mental Mismatches. Here's a look at all of them below.

Become a CHFF Insider today and you'll get our Mental Mismatches, and much more information, stats and analysis each week of the season, right through the Super Bowl.

 Intelligence Index 2013 Mental Mismatches

WeekSmart TeamScoreDumb TeamScoreDifferenceFAVSpread
2CIN20PIT10+10Smart-7
3CAR38NYG0+38Smart-1.5
3SEA45JAX17+28Smart-19.5
3DAL31STL7+24Smart-3.5
4KC31NYG7+24Smart-5
4IND37JAX3+34Smart-7.5
4SEA23HOU20+3Smart-2.5
5SF34HOU3+31Smart-6.5
6CHI27NYG21+6Smart-8
6PHI31TB20+11Smart-1
6IND9SD19-10Smart-1.5
7KC17HOU16+1Smart-6.5
7NE27NYJ30-3Smart-4
8CAR31TB13+18Smart-6
8KC23CLE17+6Smart-7
8SF42JAX10+32Smart-16.5
 AVG 29.1 13.3+15.8 -6.4

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