Meet the ether bunny

The hot air emanating from the "pundits" as they analyze the Indy-New England playoff game has created a noxious cloud of inaccuracy floating over the football world.

Sure, New England has outscored Indy by an average two-touchdown margin in the Brady-Manning era; sure, New England has bested Indy three times in the last 14 months; sure, New England outgunned Indy, 38-34, in an Astroturf shootout; outmugged Indy, 24-14, in a snowy slugfest; and outlasted Indy, 27-24, on a steamy September evening.

But things are different this time, say the "pundits." Indy's offense is unstoppable; New England's offense can't keep up; New England's defense ain't what it used to be; Indy's defense is much improved.

The public has sucked in the fumes. In less than a week, New England has dropped from a 3-point favorite to a 1½-point favorite, even though the Patriots are playing at home in an arena where they haven't lost in 755 days. Nearly three-quarters of the betting public have spurned the 14-2 defending Super Bowl champs and have chosen instead to place their hard-earned money on the 13-4 Colts.

But we're here to cut through the smog of "punditry" that has befouled the public's perception of this game. We're here to suffocate the "pundits" with an ether-soaked towel of gridiron wisdom called the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

We wanted to know how each team has stacked up this year compared with last year. So we did what the "pundits" normally fail to do: We examined every major offensive and defensive indicator for Indianapolis and New England in 2003 and in 2004. Just for kicks and giggles, we threw in the performance of each team's field-goal specialist, and looked at the home record for New England and the road record for Indy in both 2003 and 2004.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts show some major trends:

• New England's offense has improved more dramatically than Indy's offense -- The 2003 Patriots ranked 12th in scoring offense and 17th in total offense; the 2004 Patriots rank 4th in scoring offense and 7th in total offense.

• Indy's total defense and passing defense have declined dramatically -- the 2003 Colts ranked 11th in total defense; the 2004 Colts rank 29th in total defense. The 2003 Colts ranked 5th in pass defense; the 2004 Colts rank 28th.

• New England's total and scoring defense have declined marginally -- the 2003 Patriots ranked 7th in total defense; the 2004 Patriots rank 9th in total defense. The 2003 Patriots ranked 1st in scoring defense; the 2004 Patriots rank 2nd.

• New England's rush offense is the single most improved unit on either team, climbing from 27th in 2003 to 7th in 2004.

• The gap between the Indy offense and the New England offense is not nearly as dramatic as the gaping chasm that divides the Indy defense and the New England defense.

• The 2003 Colts were a better road team than the 2004 Colts.

Here's a comparison of every unit over the two-year period. Keep in mind that offense was up around the league this season. For example, teams averaged 20.8 points per game in 2003 and 21.5 points per game in 2004. Therefore, we also show how Indy and New England rank among all 32 NFL teams each season, to give a more accurate indication of how each has fared relative to the rest of the league.

Scoring offense, PPG (rank)
NE 03 – 21.7 (12)........NE 04 – 27.3 (4) -- (+5.6 PPG)
Indy 03 – 27.9 (2).........Indy 04 – 32.6 (1) -- (+4.7 PPG)

Total offense, YPG
NE 03 – 314.9 (17).......NE 04 – 357.6 (7) -- (+42.7 YPG)
Indy 03 – 367.1 (3)....... Indy 04 – 404.7 (2) -- (+37.6 YPG)

Yards per play
NE 03 – 4.8 (20)......NE 04 – 5.5 (9) -- (+0.7 YPP)
Indy 03 – 5.6 (4).......Indy 04 – 6.7 (1) -- (+1.1 YPP)

Rushing offense, YPG
NE 03 – 100.4 (27).......NE 04 – 133.4 (7) -- (+33.0 YPG)
Indy 03 – 105.9 (19).....Indy 04 – 115.8 (15) -- (+9.9 YPG)

Passing offense, YPG
NE 03 – 214.5 (9).........NE 04 – 224.2 (11) -- (+9.7 YPG)
Indy 03 – 261.2 (1).......Indy 04 – 288.9 (1) -- (+27.7 YPG)

Scoring defense, PPG
NE 03 – 14.9 (1).........NE 04 – 16.2 (2) -- (+1.3 PPG)
Indy 03 – 21.0 (20).....Indy 04 – 21.9 (18) -- (+0.9 PPG)

Total defense, YPG
NE 03 – 291.6 (7)...........NE 04 – 310.8 (9) -- (+19.2 YPG)
Indy 03 – 299.3 (11).......Indy 04 – 370.6 (29) -- (+71.3 YPG)

Opponent yards per play
NE 03 – 4.4 (4)..........NE 04 – 5.0 (9) -- (+0.6 YPP)
Indy 03 – 5.2 (18)......Indy 04 – 5.7 (27) -- (+0.5 YPP)

Rushing defense, YPG
NE 03 – 89.6 (4).............NE 04 – 98.2 (6) -- (+8.6 YPG)
Indy 03 – 123.8 (20)......Indy 04 – 127.3 (24) -- (+3.5 YPG)

Passing defense, YPG
NE 03 – 202.0 (15)..........NE 04 – 212.5 (17) -- (+10.5 YPG)
Indy 03 – 175.6 (5)...........Indy 04 –243.2 (28) -- (+67.6 YPG)

New England at home; Indy on the road
NE 03 – 8-0..........NE 04 – 8-0
Indy 03 – 7-1.........Indy 04 – 5-3

Field goal kickers
Vinatieri 03 – 25/34; long, 48...........Vinatieri 04 – 31/33; long, 48
Vanderjagt 03 – 37/37; long, 50......Vanderjagt 04 – 20/25; long, 47