Key to the NFL draft: keep it simple, stupid

By Kevin Braig
The QuantCoach (@quantcoach)

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock had some good advice for the Colts and Redskins before they made quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, respectively, the first two selections of the 2012 NFL Draft.
 
“What NFL coaches did last year at every position is to simplify things for the rookies because there was no time to learn,” Mayock told the Chicago Tribune’s Sam Farmer. “The lesson we learned as football people is maybe we should keep things more simple for these rookies, make them feel more comfortable and put them in positions to succeed.”
 
From Green Bay’s Vince Lombardi and San Francisco’s Bill Walsh to Apple’s Steve Jobs, Mayock’s suggested approach is the same one that history’s greatest designers have utilized.
 
When Lombardi became the Packers’ head coach, the team flew in the quarterbacks, including Bart Starr, for a meeting.
 
“‘We’re going to start by taking a giant step backward,’” Lombardi said, according to David Maraniss in When Pride Still Mattered.
 
“By that he meant he was asking his quarterbacks to empty their brains so that he could fill them up again with his system, his knowledge,” Maraniss wrote.
 
“Scooter McLean’s [Lombardi’s predecessor] playbook, based on a Clark Shaughnessy system that he had brought from the Bears, was more than four inches thick,” Maraniss said.  “Lombardi’s was an inch and a half ... There were fewer plays, but more options within each play, yet Lombardi taught the quarterbacks how to read the defense and select from the options in a rational way so that they did not feel overwhelmed.”
 
Lombardi’s emphasis on simplicity transformed Starr.
 
“Bart Starr was on the edge of his seat, listening — getting it for the first time,” Marannis wrote.  “All ‘the crap’ was gone; this was ‘right to the bone,’ simple, yet ‘so refreshing and exciting,’ Starr thought. Everything was accounted for, labeled, identified, put in order, fundamental and sound.”
 
Decades later, Steve Jobs used the same emphasis on simplicity to turn Apple into one of the world’s top companies.
 
“Ever since Apple’s first brochure proclaimed ‘Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication,’ Jobs had aimed for simplicity that comes from conquering complexities, not ignoring them,” Walter Isaacson wrote in Steve Jobs.
 
“‘It takes a lot of hard work,’ [Jobs] said, ‘to make something simple, to truly understand the underlying challenges and come up with elegant solutions.’”
 
Incredibly, more than a decade before Jobs and Steve Wozniak, Apple’s founders, joined the “Home Brew Computer Club,” the NFL was using computers as a solution for the NFL draft.
 
Today, as a result of the wildly popular Moneyball franchise, most people — and all disciples of sabermetrics — probably believe that the computer as a tool for evaluating player talent was introduced to professional sports when Paul DePodesta fired up his laptop (pre-loaded with the complete works of Bill James) for Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane.
 
In the words of Bart Starr, that notion is “crap.”
 
Tex Schramm was using a computer to find NFL players more than a decade before Bill James got the job as the night security guard at the (Not Brandon) Stokely Van Kamp’s pork-and-beans plant.
 
As explained in Michael MacCambridge’s America’s Game, at the 1960 Olympics, Schramm, the general manager of the expansion Dallas Cowboys, was fascinated with the information generated on an IBM computer, which calculated statistics, medal standings, and record times. After he returned to Dallas, Schramm contacted IBM and explained what he wanted to Salam Quereishi, a computer programming expert in the Service Bureau Corporation, an IBM subsidiary in the Silicon Valley.
 
Schramm and Quereishi, a cricket fan who knew almost nothing of NFL football, moved slowly and methodically to create the tool that Schramm envisioned for quantifying the value of football players.
 
“By the fall of 1964, the four years of intense work began to yield results,” MacCambridge wrote. “The Cowboys’ executives were on hand for the first printout, as the IBM 7090-7094 computer produced its data on wide sheets of perforated paper. Among the myriad lists that were printed out for Dallas, after players were sorted by a variety of categories, was a list of the top fifteen prospects overall. At the top of the list was a cocksure quarterback from Alabama named Joe Namath.”
 
Ironically, the Silicon Valley coach, Walsh, did not use a computer. He really did not need one.
 
“He was very adept at understanding the nuances that would be important for different positions, and what would separate the great athletes from the good ones,” former 49ers executive Carmen Policy once said.
 
“We tried to evaluate players on how they functioned on the field, not on whether they matched some arbitrary standard,” Walsh said.
 
But Walsh did share Lombardi’s and Jobs love for simplicity.

“I always felt … that it was important not to give the quarterback too much too handle,” Walsh said. “For example, the quarterback would basically use receivers only on one side of the field ... We found it to be much more effective for the quarterback to concentrate on three of his receivers operating to one side of the field.”
 
Unlike Walsh, the QuantCoach cannot recognize the nuances that separate great athletes from good athletes in an NFL draft. But the QuantCoach can follow the instructions of Greg Cosell, who tweeted during the most recent draft that the “idea is to draft players better than [the] ones [currently] on the roster.”
 
With that in mind, here are four teams that look like they may have drafted some players who are better than the ones currently on the roster (the simple teams) and four teams who may not have (the complicated teams).

The Simple Teams

1. Philadelphia Eagles  
Philadelphia was the best-designed team in the NFL that did not make the playoffs in 2011, mostly as a result of a horrific turnover differential (-14). But the upside of being upside-down last year was the Eagles got to pick higher in the draft than they probably should have. Philadelphia addressed its most glaring weakness, linebacker play, with second-round choice Mychal Kendricks (California), who will join recently acquired DeMeco Ryans. The Eagles also bolstered an already menacing pass rush with Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry and may have found a defensive playmaker to help turn around the turnover differential in the fifth round in Georgia defensive back Brandon Boykin.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the past four years, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been a patchwork unit. The Steelers moved to change that last year when they drafted center Maurkice Pouncey. They took another huge step in fixing the problem completely when Stanford guard David DeCastro (pictured) fell into their laps in the first round and they grabbed Ohio State tackle Mike Adams in the second. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh drafted massive nose tackle Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) and linebacker Sean Spence (Miami). We all know what defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau can do with speedy linebackers. Finally, seventh-round tight end David Paulson (Oregon) might be a find.

3. Indianapolis Colts
Confession: Concluding that the Colts got better by using the first overall pick in the draft to replace Curtis Painter at quarterback with Andrew Luck (Stanford) hardly demonstrates that new general manager Ryan Grigson has the draft wired. But taking not the best, but the two best tight ends in the draft — Coby Fleener (Stanford) and Dwayne Allen (Clemson) — was impressive. Peyton Manning did not become truly unstoppable until Dallas Clark arrived in Indy and a reliable tight end is a quarterback’s best friend. If one of the two tight ends works out, the Colts should be greatly improved.  If they both contribute, Indianapolis could be surprisingly hard to stop.

4. Green Bay Packers
In 2010, Green Bay ranked first in the QuantCoach’s pass pressure statistic and won the Super Bowl (they were also No. 1 pressuring the passer according to the CHFF Defensive Hog Index).  In 2011, the Packers ranked last and Eli Manning had all day to set fire to their 15-1 regular season and send their hopes for back-to-back Super Bowl championships up in smoke.  General Manager Ted Thompson moved decisively to address that weakness by grabbing defensive end Nick Perry (USC) and defensive tackles Jerel Worthy with his first two picks.  If Green Bay’s pass rush is back, the Packers again will be one of the two or three teams to beat in the NFC.
 

The Complicated Teams

1. Denver Broncos
With an already decent pass rush and little more than a collection of backup receivers for Peyton Manning to work with on offense, general manager John Elway passed on wide receivers like Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) and Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma) and tight end Dwayne Allen (Clemson). Instead, he selected Cincinnati defensive tackle Derek Wolfe and Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler with his first two picks. Elway does not look like he has provided any players who are clearly better than the players who finished 8-8 last year and it is doubtful that even Manning’s skill (if healthy) can duplicate the magic that Tim Tebow provided last year.

2. Seattle Seahawks
During an 8-8 season in 2011, Seattle’s offensive line often was overmatched despite the selection of tackle Russell Okung in the first round of the 2010 draft and tackle James Carpenter in the first round of the 2011 draft. The OL ranked No. 27 in the QuantCoach's pass-protection statistic and No. 26 protecting the passer according to CHFF's Offensive Hog Index.

On the other hand, head coach Pete Carroll’s pass pressure ranked a serviceable 16th in the NFL and the overall pass defense ranked in the top third of the league (12th in both the Quant Coach's Defensive Passing YPA statistic and in CHFF's Real Defensive Passing YPA). So why did general manager John Schneider pick undersized pass rusher Bruce Irvin (West Virginia) when guard David DeCastro (Stanford) and tackle Riley Reiff (Iowa) were still on the board? And why did Schneider grab Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson with his pick in the third round after luring Matt Flynn from the Land of Cheese in free agency?

3. Tennessee Titans
Only Green Bay ranked worse than Tennessee in pass pressure according to the QuantCoach’s statistic. But when the 20th pick in the first round arrived, the Titans passed on Syracuse pass rusher Chandler Jones and opted for a Shiny Hood Ornament for the offense, Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright (pictured). Immediately, stunned New England head coach Bill Belichick did something he never does. Belichick made a trade to move up in the draft and scooped up Jones with the 21st pick. If Jones turns out to be as freaky as former Tennessee pass-rusher, Jevon “The Freak” Kearse, Tennessee fans will be plenty freaked out.

4. St. Louis Rams
Here’s the thing: In three years, the QuantCoach may look back and say that St. Louis had the best 2012 draft of any NFL team. But it’s the Rams. So, the guess here is probably not. After turning the second overall pick in the draft into multiple picks, including three selections in the second round, St. Louis was poised to harvest a bushel of talent. 

And, on paper, the Rams did when they chose defensive tackle Michael Brockers (LSU), wide receiver Brian Quick (Appalachian State), defensive back Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama) and running back Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati). If things work out for the best, Brockers will become the “good” Albert Haynesworth, Quick will become former Philadelphia wide receiver Mike Quick, Jenkins will become the “good” Adam “Pac-Man” Jones, and Pead will become a poor man’s Marshall Faulk. If things don’t work out, however, Brockers may become Fat Albert (Haynesworth), Quick may not develop and become quickly forgotten, Jenkins may become the “bad” Pac-Man, and Pead may be just plain poor. It seems like a lot of collective risk for so many assets.
  

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Read more: 2012 draft, Andrew Luck, FN 2012 NFL Draft, NFL, NFL Draft