Intelligence Index: Smart Teams Consistently Win Big

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 15, 2013



Football fans can get all our stat-packed picks, including our hugely successful Intelligence Index Mental Mismatches (.667 ATS) and King of Props plays (.661), each week through the Super Bowl by becoming a CHFF Insider. It's just $9.95 per week.

Smart fans who like smart picks, (i.e., winning picks) should study the Cold, Hard Football Facts Intelligence Index each week.

You can see our three Week 15 Mental Mismatches right here at CHFF Insider.

The CHFF Insider-only Intelligence Index helps us separate smart teams, those that excel in situational football, from dumb teams, those teams that fail to execute in situational football.

When a smart team plays a dumb team, we call it a Mental Mismatch, and our own Colonel Comey highlights those games each week, with rousing success here in 2013, the indicator's first year of existence.

CHFF Insiders who follow these Intelligence Index Mental Mismatches are sitting at the head of the class. These picks have gone:

  • 28-4 (.875) straight up
  • 20-10-2 (.667) against the spread

It's an impressive string of success. In fact, the I.I. is currently locked in a heated battle with the King of Props, who himself is an impressive 39-19-1 (.661), in the race to reach .700 by the end of the season. 

Not only do these smart teams win, they win convincingly.

Our 32 "smart team" picks this year:

  • Have been favored by an average of 5.3 points per game
  • Have won by an average of 11.6 points per game

Smart teams are generally favored. But we have picked three underdogs as the smart team in our Mental Mismatches.

All three of those "smart" underdogs not only covered, but won outright. We cite a rare two underdogs among our three Week 15 Mental Mismatches.

The Intelligence Index works for one very simple reason: most fans and analysts look only at the physical capabilities of each team. The Intelligence Index allows us to measure the mental capabilites of each team, too.

It turns out that smart coaching and team intelligence are actually more important than just physical skills. 

Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs: They are a humble No. 17 in total offense and No. 20 in total defense; they have actually given up more yards on defense (4,652) than they've gained on offense (4,393).

But the smart Chiefs excel in situational football.

As a result, the Chiefs are are No. 7 in scoring offense, No. 4 in scoring defense, No. 1 on the Intelligence Index and sporting a nifty 10-3 record. 

Or ask the Houston Texans: They are a solid No. 11 in total offense and No. 3 in total defense. Physically, they are one of the best teams in football, generating 4,798 yards of offense while allowing just 3,928 yards on defense. Houston is also No. 6 in Total Team Yards Differential (+645).

But the physically gifted Texans are stupid and suck in situational football.

As a result, the Texans are No. 29 in scoring offense, No. 27 in scoring defense, No. 32 on the Intelligence Index, and sporting a sad-sack 2-11 record that launched the dismissal of head coach Gary Kubiak.

Here's a look at our 32 Mental Mismatches so far this season, the score of the game and the results both straight up and ATS. As you can see, smart teams consistently win and consistently win big.

CHFF Intelligence Index 2013 Mental Mismatches

WeekSmart TeamScoreDumb TeamScoreDifferenceFAVSpreadSUATS
2CIN20PIT10+10Smart-7WW
3CAR38NYG0+38Smart-1.5WW
3SEA45JAX17+28Smart-19.5WW
3DAL31STL7+24Smart-3.5WW
4KC31NYG7+24Smart-5WW
4IND37JAX3+34Smart-7.5WW
4SEA23HOU20+3Smart-2.5WW
5SF34HOU3+31Smart-6.5WW
6CHI27NYG21+6Smart-8WL
6PHI31TB2011Smart-1WW
6IND9SD19-10Smart-1.5LL
7KC17HOU16+1Smart-6.5WL
7NE27NYJ30-3Smart-4LL
8CAR31TB13+18Smart-6WW
8KC23CLE17+6Smart-7WL
8SF42JAX10+32Smart-16.5WW
9IND27HOU24+3Smart-2.5WW
9SD24WAS30-6Smart-1LL
9SEA27TB24+3Smart-16.5WL
10ARI27HOU24+3Smart-3Wpush
10IND8STL38-30Smart-9.5LL
10MIN34WAS27+7Dumb2.5WW
11IND30TEN27+3Smart-3Wpush
11PHI24WAS16+8Smart-3.5WW
12BAL19NYJ3+16Smart-3.5WW
12PIT27CLE11+16Dumb2.5WW
12SF27WAS6+21Smart-5.5WW
13NE34HOU31+3Smart-7.5WL
13MIA23NYJ3+20Dumb1.5WW
14KC45WAS10+35Smart-2.5WW
14NE27CLE26+1Smart-11.5WL
14PHI34DET2014Smart-2.5WW

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