Houston Texans-Chicago Bears: The Real and Spectacular Pick

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 11, 2012



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Here's a look at our analysis of the big Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game this week, pulled right from CHFF Insider.

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Houston at Chicago (-1)

Texans-Bears is easily the marquee game of Week 10, and a great statistical clash that may go down as one of the premier games of the 2012 season.

Here’s the question we’ll have answered Sunday night: is Chicago and its elite, historically significant, playmaking defense good enough to help the flawed Bears overcome the most well-balanced team in the NFL?

We broke down the Bears and their prospects of winning it all in great detail this week on SI.com. You can see that story here.

At the end of the day, you know our well-tested theory: balanced teams almost always trump flawed teams, and it’s so often the difference especially in big games.

The Texans, of course, are the most balanced team in football: No. 1 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings thanks to the fact that they are a Top 10 team in an awesome 19 of 20 Quality Stats.

That’s rare top-to-bottom strength for an NFL teams.

Chicago is No. 4 on the Relativity Index, just 0.25 points worse than the Texans in that key indicator, and No. 4 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings.

So they are certainly a formidable team, as we’ve seen week after week.

But the Bears are also clearly the flawed team in this relationship: No. 22 or worse in full quarter of our indictors (5 of 20).

Chicago and Jay Cutler are middle of the road in Offensive Passer Rating, but near the bottom in Real Passing YPA and Real QB Rating.

The gap between OPR and YPA and Real QBR is a reflection of the fact that Cutler gets sacked more often than Messina – which detracts from your performance in YPA and Real QB Rating, but not in Offensive Passer Rating.

Most notably, the Bears are dead last in the NFL at protecting the passer, suffering a Negative Pass Play on a brutal 13.3 percent of dropobacks.

That’s a very bad sign for Chicago going up against J.J. Watt and one of the most devastating pass rushes in football and the team that is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index.

The Bears faced the No. 2 Defensive Hogs from Green Bay back in Week 2 and the result was an ugly 23-10 loss, Chicago's only defeat of the season.

Bottom line: the Texans will win this game with their defensive line and by severely limiting what is already a challenged Bears passing attack.

Pick: Houston 21, Chicago 17

Note: the game table here is an image grab of the actual table with clickable links found for every game at CHFF Insider. We couldn't properly copy the table from Insider to here.


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