Houston Texans-Chicago Bears: The Real and Spectacular Pick
The Wall Street Journal reported that fewer than 100 people can win 53% to 55% against the spread over time and that “Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret.”
We've hit .544 against the spread over the course of 3½ years – and we don’t hire teams of statisticians. Instead, we've isolated the stats that win and lose NFL games, our Quality Stats, and we devote ourselves to them.
And here's the best part:
We give you our analysis and pick for EVERY game EVERY week ... and we still do it at an elite, money-making rate. Plus, we publish the results of every pick every week, too.
We like to call CHFF Insider the buxom blonde statistical bombshell on the sidelines of America's favorite sport. We’ve devoted ourselves to cheering on those indicators that help predict winners and losers in NFL games.
Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider also includes Spreadapedia, our powerful searchable database of every score, point spread, over-under line and result since 1978, plus the Correlation to Victory and Predictive Rate of Victory of all our Quality Stats and many other indicators.
The foundation of CHFF Insider, however, are those real and spectacular picks. We size up every opponent in every game side by side in 20 different Quality Stats, break down who has the edge and then offer our picks both straight up and against the spread.
Remember, CHFF Insiders get this analysis for every single NFL game every week, plus so much more.
Become a CHFF Insider and you'll this analysis and so much more straight through Super Bowl XLVII.
Houston at Chicago (-1)
Texans-Bears is easily the marquee game of Week 10, and a great statistical clash that may go down as one of the premier games of the 2012 season.
Here’s the question we’ll have answered Sunday night: is Chicago and its elite, historically significant, playmaking defense good enough to help the flawed Bears overcome the most well-balanced team in the NFL?
We broke down the Bears and their prospects of winning it all in great detail this week on SI.com. You can see that story here.
At the end of the day, you know our well-tested theory: balanced teams almost always trump flawed teams, and it’s so often the difference especially in big games.
The Texans, of course, are the most balanced team in football: No. 1 in our Quality Stats Power Rankings thanks to the fact that they are a Top 10 team in an awesome 19 of 20 Quality Stats.
That’s rare top-to-bottom strength for an NFL teams.
So they are certainly a formidable team, as we’ve seen week after week.
But the Bears are also clearly the flawed team in this relationship: No. 22 or worse in full quarter of our indictors (5 of 20).
The gap between OPR and YPA and Real QBR is a reflection of the fact that Cutler gets sacked more often than Messina – which detracts from your performance in YPA and Real QB Rating, but not in Offensive Passer Rating.
Most notably, the Bears are dead last in the NFL at protecting the passer, suffering a Negative Pass Play on a brutal 13.3 percent of dropobacks.
That’s a very bad sign for Chicago going up against J.J. Watt and one of the most devastating pass rushes in football and the team that is No. 1 on our Defensive Hog Index.
The Bears faced the No. 2 Defensive Hogs from Green Bay back in Week 2 and the result was an ugly 23-10 loss, Chicago's only defeat of the season.
Bottom line: the Texans will win this game with their defensive line and by severely limiting what is already a challenged Bears passing attack.
Pick: Houston 21, Chicago 17
Note: the game table here is an image grab of the actual table with clickable links found for every game at CHFF Insider. We couldn't properly copy the table from Insider to here.
- Super Bowl XLIX Favorites: NFC Likely To Be Super Again In 2014
- Super Bowl XLVIII Most Watched Program In U.S. History
- Super Bowl XLVIII Postgame Stat-Palooza
- CHFF Classic: Russell Wilson NFL's Best Young QB
- Super Bowl XLVIII: Broncos-Seahawks The Statistically Perfect Super Bowl
- Prop-A-Palooza II: Hundreds More Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bets
- Live From Media Day: Could Seattle D Stop Russell Wilson
- Seattle Seahawks Brash Legion of Boom Proves Real Statistical Deal
- AFC Champion Denver Broncos Betting Season in Review
- NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks Betting Season in Review