Gut Instinct Week 12: Breaking it all down
Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 25, 2011
By Mark Wald
Cold, Hard Football Facts Magician of Mastery
Since this column usually runs on Friday, the Thanksgiving Day games avoided the white hot glare of our riveting analysis.
As a service to Lions fans, we’re re-running a snippet from the Lions-Panthers preview last week. Again, as a service to Lions fans. Nothing to do with the fact it makes us look good.
Watching Ndamukong Suh throw a muscle-flexing hissy fit week after week reminds us of the big kid on the kickball field who was continually out-caught by the smaller, faster, smarter kid—and couldn’t handle it.
Bullies that they are, the Lions will probably win this game by a well behaved two touchdowns—just in time for another temper tantrum against the Packers on Thanksgiving.
Final margin of victory in that game: 14 points, in favor of Detroit.
Suh, vs. the Packers on Thursday: Ejected in the third quarter after stomping on a guy’s arm.
Yep (hitching up britches), that’s Gut Instinct.
I’ll take a Caleb Heinie, please. Keep it a little longer around the ears.
Those are some nasty pro football gods, Chicago. Vindictive, Old Testament gods with no appreciation for poetry, for what would be more poetic than Jay Cutler getting another shot at the Packers in January to prove he isn’t a milquetoast?
The Bears were on the fast track to getting that shot before the gods dealt them a thunderstrike: Cutler’s out of here. He could come back this year, but you don’t pick up right where you left off after two months in the can.
Unless your name is Joe Montana and the year is 1986 and you have spinal surgery and you throw for three touchdowns in your first game back. Then you pick up right where you left off.
But Cutler isn’t Montana and the 2011 Bears aren’t the ’86 49ers. The Bears will miss Cutler’s (unorthodox) leadership more than his quarterbacking skills. We know that’s tough to wrap your mind around, stat geeks. Deal with it.
Bottom line, things look Grimm for Chicago, and that ain’t fairy tales. But the Bears won’t roll over just yet. They might peel the skin off a salmon with a swift turn of the head, but they won’t roll over.
In the Bears’ favor: they’re a team less reliant on the quarterback position than other teams, and Hanie was no stiff in the title game last year against the Packers.
Was Hanie’s performance in that game the product of an unknown commodity making plays against an unprepared defense, or does he have real football chops? We’re about to find out.
Not in the Bears’ favor: four of their six remaining games are on the road, including this one. If Chicago survives this blow, they’ll do it sans the support of Soldier Field.
They have their proverbial work cut out for them.
Just when the Carolina Panthers were running out of steam they set the iron for COTTON and hung 35 points on the Detroit Lions, their highest point total of the year.
This week the Panthers set the iron for DELICATES, because the Colts shrink like wool in water.
It was heartwarming how Peyton Manning gave Colts’ brass permission to draft Andrew Luck.
Remember how the 49ers unceremoniously dumped Joe Montana when was long in tooth because it was for the good of their franchise? They don’t make front offices like they used to.
Ever think you’d see the day when Pete Carroll was more relevant than Mike Shanahan?
Life is strange in its cruel, twisting fates. A two time Super Bowl champion finds himself fodder for a collegiate-humiliated, two-time fired pro coach considered a major lightweight. The horror.
If God wanted us to watch football he’d have given us football teams. Good Lord, what an ugly match-up. So ugly, in fact, at the time this went to press the game was off the board.
Our resistance to handicapping this game is matched only by our disdain for the gutless wonders known as the St. Louis Rams. Can a St. Louis football team be worse than the Cardinals who used to play there? Yes it can. You’re seeing it.
Unless you’ve mastered the fine art of turtle racing, stay away. Stay far, far away.
Last week the Titans and Buccaneers put up valiant efforts in losing causes. As consolation for their moral victories they get to play each other.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happens next: they erupt in an unethical display of bad football and gauche fashion sense. Munchak comes dressed in his lawn cutting shoes. Freeman throws two more picks.
Fault them not. Man and football teams can only behave themselves for so long before true nature is revealed. Like when you first started dating your girlfriend back in the day. Six hours of polite behavior in front of the family gave way to blowing wind like Katrina in the solo drive home, and damn it felt good.
Excitement in Minneapolis over Christian Ponder has given way to weary resignation of another season lost.
We’re not backtracking. The right coach, the right support, and the Vikings are a ten win team. Seen it happen too many times to think otherwise. As it is, they have no plan, no stability, and no shot.
All is not lost, Minnesotans. Lindsay Whalen is alive and well and just brought you the national title you’ve long been craving.
Doesn’t really satisfy the hunger, does it? Not that one, anyway.
The Jets are floundering. The Bills are already in the pan on medium heat. New York, seemingly higher on the scale of intestinal fortitude, appears better positioned to turn things around.
We’re not buying. One of these teams needs to prove capable of rising above their life of quiet desperation.
In other words, eight points is a big line for a game involving two teams that can’t get out of their own way, never mind their opponents’.
The Eagles are going nowhere, but just when it looked like Andy Reid was dead the cookie duster started twitching again. The guy can coach.
Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, there’s no evidence Philadelphia can put a few wins together. There are too many things wrong with this team.
But what exactly are those things? The irony here is the Eagles are nowhere near as good as people thought they were going to be, but are also nowhere near as bad as they’re being portrayed.
They rank 10th in scoring and 16th in scoring defense. They’ve only lost two more games than they’ve won. They’re only two games back from the division lead, and they took two out of three games from division leaders New York and Dallas.
Not great, but not exactly horrid.
Reid’s been around long enough to surely have a voice in Eagles’ affairs, but it’s amazing how Philadelphia’s brain-trust has remained scot-free from blame while mud balls continue to be lofted in Reid’s direction. There are no autocrat coaches anymore. Not even Belichick.
Forget New England’s rout of the Chiefs last week. If the Patriots’ developed the teeth we thought were poking through in their win over the Jets, we’ll see those teeth Sunday vs. Philadelphia.
The game hinges the Eagles’ defense, and Vince Young. He either works his magic or the Patriots expose him for the unpolished stone that he is. You might check Insider, because hey know agates.
Relax, Bengals fans. Those were two of the best looking losses you’ll ever see, and you’ve seen a lot of them. Dorian Gray has nothing on those losses. Those are People Magazine Sexist Losses Alive style losses.
The promising 2011 season resumes its course in Cincinnati this week, because the Browns come to town.
What about the Familiar Division Opponent? Nah, that only works when the Familiar is at home.
Not familiar with Familiars? Look up our previous columns, available at Smithsonian.com. Ignore the ominous black dog that has an unsettling knack for showing up everywhere you go.
Three Yards and a Cloud of Mama’s Boy!
We’re not opposed to it. In fact, we’re fully on board with Li’l Timmy—when it comes to football. As for the other nonsense, thank you Jake Plummer.
The world has caught on to Tebow now (even if defenses haven’t), which makes the six point line in the Chargers’ favor all the more puzzling. This is a slam dunk underdog play.
Its so slam dunk that we wouldn’t touch it with ten inch Gutenberg Bible. But that’s just us, we chickenshits of little faith.
Be sure to check out Insider, though. They’re a faith of different denomination.
A Tale of Two Thumb-juries: Big Ben plays, Cutler sits.
Just sayin’.
The Steelers are so consistent that even in an under the radar year they sit quietly at 7-3, good for the third (tied) best record in the NFL.
There’s a formula that works in the Steel City and they’re not changing it for anybody. No New Coke on their shelf. No new Pringles marketing campaign. No clean-shaven metrosexual in place of the Brawny lumberjack.
The Chiefs are clearly outclassed here, but they’ve had success against Pittsburgh in Kansas City. Pittsburgh also has a big game against the Bengals next week. The line is 10 ½ points.
Just sayin’.
Pundits think the Texans will be just fine with Matt Leinert. We’re not one of those pundits. We’re not even two of those pundits. Introduce us to your sister, though, and we’ll be any pundit you want us to be.
Wade Phillips’ crew has enough Portland cement to cover Houston’s crumbling foundation, but that only works if the guy out front can at least pretend like he knows how to use a trowel. When the guys realize another guy’s a pantywaist, the whole operation starts going to hell.
Ever seen a deer in the headlights? A lower level corporate drone in front of a Vice Chair? A quarterback against a defense that gets better as his eyes get wider?
The Giants need this game to stay tied with Dallas for the division lead. They need this game to remain in the running for a Wild Card Spot against the likes of Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit.
They need this game to prove they’re not a bunch of rubber-legged sissies incapable of going the distance.
This is cruel irony since the major actors in the Giants’ drama have proved more than capable of going the distance. You know what we’re talking about, East coasters and stat geeks. Don’t you hate it when things don’t follow script? Or maybe that depends on which script you’re following.
No matter. It’s here, its now, and the Giants play the Saints in the Superdome on Sunday, 6 ½ point underdogs, as they should be. They’re at a disadvantage, even if we’d take Eli over Drew, in football and in Barbie Dolls.
Mark Wald is an NFL researcher, writer and regular Cold, Hard Football Facts and CHFF Insider contributor. He has built one of the nation’s most comprehensive databases of historic pointspreads. E-mail him at mdw.wald@gmail.com.
Cold, Hard Football Facts Magician of Mastery
Since this column usually runs on Friday, the Thanksgiving Day games avoided the white hot glare of our riveting analysis.
As a service to Lions fans, we’re re-running a snippet from the Lions-Panthers preview last week. Again, as a service to Lions fans. Nothing to do with the fact it makes us look good.
Watching Ndamukong Suh throw a muscle-flexing hissy fit week after week reminds us of the big kid on the kickball field who was continually out-caught by the smaller, faster, smarter kid—and couldn’t handle it.
Bullies that they are, the Lions will probably win this game by a well behaved two touchdowns—just in time for another temper tantrum against the Packers on Thanksgiving.
Final margin of victory in that game: 14 points, in favor of Detroit.
Suh, vs. the Packers on Thursday: Ejected in the third quarter after stomping on a guy’s arm.
Yep (hitching up britches), that’s Gut Instinct.
Chicago at Oakland
Line: Raiders (-4.5)I’ll take a Caleb Heinie, please. Keep it a little longer around the ears.
Those are some nasty pro football gods, Chicago. Vindictive, Old Testament gods with no appreciation for poetry, for what would be more poetic than Jay Cutler getting another shot at the Packers in January to prove he isn’t a milquetoast?
The Bears were on the fast track to getting that shot before the gods dealt them a thunderstrike: Cutler’s out of here. He could come back this year, but you don’t pick up right where you left off after two months in the can.
Unless your name is Joe Montana and the year is 1986 and you have spinal surgery and you throw for three touchdowns in your first game back. Then you pick up right where you left off.
But Cutler isn’t Montana and the 2011 Bears aren’t the ’86 49ers. The Bears will miss Cutler’s (unorthodox) leadership more than his quarterbacking skills. We know that’s tough to wrap your mind around, stat geeks. Deal with it.
Bottom line, things look Grimm for Chicago, and that ain’t fairy tales. But the Bears won’t roll over just yet. They might peel the skin off a salmon with a swift turn of the head, but they won’t roll over.
In the Bears’ favor: they’re a team less reliant on the quarterback position than other teams, and Hanie was no stiff in the title game last year against the Packers.
Was Hanie’s performance in that game the product of an unknown commodity making plays against an unprepared defense, or does he have real football chops? We’re about to find out.
Not in the Bears’ favor: four of their six remaining games are on the road, including this one. If Chicago survives this blow, they’ll do it sans the support of Soldier Field.
They have their proverbial work cut out for them.
Carolina at Indianapolis
Line: Panthers (-3.5)Just when the Carolina Panthers were running out of steam they set the iron for COTTON and hung 35 points on the Detroit Lions, their highest point total of the year.
This week the Panthers set the iron for DELICATES, because the Colts shrink like wool in water.
It was heartwarming how Peyton Manning gave Colts’ brass permission to draft Andrew Luck.
Remember how the 49ers unceremoniously dumped Joe Montana when was long in tooth because it was for the good of their franchise? They don’t make front offices like they used to.
Washington at Seattle
Line: Seahawks (-3.5)Ever think you’d see the day when Pete Carroll was more relevant than Mike Shanahan?
Life is strange in its cruel, twisting fates. A two time Super Bowl champion finds himself fodder for a collegiate-humiliated, two-time fired pro coach considered a major lightweight. The horror.
Arizona at St. Louis Rams
Line: (No line)If God wanted us to watch football he’d have given us football teams. Good Lord, what an ugly match-up. So ugly, in fact, at the time this went to press the game was off the board.
Our resistance to handicapping this game is matched only by our disdain for the gutless wonders known as the St. Louis Rams. Can a St. Louis football team be worse than the Cardinals who used to play there? Yes it can. You’re seeing it.
Unless you’ve mastered the fine art of turtle racing, stay away. Stay far, far away.
Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Line: Titans (-3.5)Last week the Titans and Buccaneers put up valiant efforts in losing causes. As consolation for their moral victories they get to play each other.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what happens next: they erupt in an unethical display of bad football and gauche fashion sense. Munchak comes dressed in his lawn cutting shoes. Freeman throws two more picks.
Fault them not. Man and football teams can only behave themselves for so long before true nature is revealed. Like when you first started dating your girlfriend back in the day. Six hours of polite behavior in front of the family gave way to blowing wind like Katrina in the solo drive home, and damn it felt good.
Minnesota at Atlanta
Line: Falcons (-9.5)Excitement in Minneapolis over Christian Ponder has given way to weary resignation of another season lost.
We’re not backtracking. The right coach, the right support, and the Vikings are a ten win team. Seen it happen too many times to think otherwise. As it is, they have no plan, no stability, and no shot.
All is not lost, Minnesotans. Lindsay Whalen is alive and well and just brought you the national title you’ve long been craving.
Doesn’t really satisfy the hunger, does it? Not that one, anyway.
Buffalo at NY Jets
Line: Jets (-8.5)The Jets are floundering. The Bills are already in the pan on medium heat. New York, seemingly higher on the scale of intestinal fortitude, appears better positioned to turn things around.
We’re not buying. One of these teams needs to prove capable of rising above their life of quiet desperation.
In other words, eight points is a big line for a game involving two teams that can’t get out of their own way, never mind their opponents’.
New England at Philadelphia
Line: Patriots (-3.5)The Eagles are going nowhere, but just when it looked like Andy Reid was dead the cookie duster started twitching again. The guy can coach.
Unfortunately for Eagles’ fans, there’s no evidence Philadelphia can put a few wins together. There are too many things wrong with this team.
But what exactly are those things? The irony here is the Eagles are nowhere near as good as people thought they were going to be, but are also nowhere near as bad as they’re being portrayed.
They rank 10th in scoring and 16th in scoring defense. They’ve only lost two more games than they’ve won. They’re only two games back from the division lead, and they took two out of three games from division leaders New York and Dallas.
Not great, but not exactly horrid.
Reid’s been around long enough to surely have a voice in Eagles’ affairs, but it’s amazing how Philadelphia’s brain-trust has remained scot-free from blame while mud balls continue to be lofted in Reid’s direction. There are no autocrat coaches anymore. Not even Belichick.
Forget New England’s rout of the Chiefs last week. If the Patriots’ developed the teeth we thought were poking through in their win over the Jets, we’ll see those teeth Sunday vs. Philadelphia.
The game hinges the Eagles’ defense, and Vince Young. He either works his magic or the Patriots expose him for the unpolished stone that he is. You might check Insider, because hey know agates.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Bengals (-7.5)Relax, Bengals fans. Those were two of the best looking losses you’ll ever see, and you’ve seen a lot of them. Dorian Gray has nothing on those losses. Those are People Magazine Sexist Losses Alive style losses.
The promising 2011 season resumes its course in Cincinnati this week, because the Browns come to town.
What about the Familiar Division Opponent? Nah, that only works when the Familiar is at home.
Not familiar with Familiars? Look up our previous columns, available at Smithsonian.com. Ignore the ominous black dog that has an unsettling knack for showing up everywhere you go.
Denver at San Diego
Line: Chargers (-6.5)Three Yards and a Cloud of Mama’s Boy!
We’re not opposed to it. In fact, we’re fully on board with Li’l Timmy—when it comes to football. As for the other nonsense, thank you Jake Plummer.
The world has caught on to Tebow now (even if defenses haven’t), which makes the six point line in the Chargers’ favor all the more puzzling. This is a slam dunk underdog play.
Its so slam dunk that we wouldn’t touch it with ten inch Gutenberg Bible. But that’s just us, we chickenshits of little faith.
Be sure to check out Insider, though. They’re a faith of different denomination.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Line: Steelers (10.5)A Tale of Two Thumb-juries: Big Ben plays, Cutler sits.
Just sayin’.
The Steelers are so consistent that even in an under the radar year they sit quietly at 7-3, good for the third (tied) best record in the NFL.
There’s a formula that works in the Steel City and they’re not changing it for anybody. No New Coke on their shelf. No new Pringles marketing campaign. No clean-shaven metrosexual in place of the Brawny lumberjack.
The Chiefs are clearly outclassed here, but they’ve had success against Pittsburgh in Kansas City. Pittsburgh also has a big game against the Bengals next week. The line is 10 ½ points.
Just sayin’.
Houston at Jacksonville
Line: Texans (-3)Pundits think the Texans will be just fine with Matt Leinert. We’re not one of those pundits. We’re not even two of those pundits. Introduce us to your sister, though, and we’ll be any pundit you want us to be.
Wade Phillips’ crew has enough Portland cement to cover Houston’s crumbling foundation, but that only works if the guy out front can at least pretend like he knows how to use a trowel. When the guys realize another guy’s a pantywaist, the whole operation starts going to hell.
Ever seen a deer in the headlights? A lower level corporate drone in front of a Vice Chair? A quarterback against a defense that gets better as his eyes get wider?
NY Giants at New Orleans
Line: Saints (-6.5)The Giants need this game to stay tied with Dallas for the division lead. They need this game to remain in the running for a Wild Card Spot against the likes of Atlanta, Chicago, and Detroit.
They need this game to prove they’re not a bunch of rubber-legged sissies incapable of going the distance.
This is cruel irony since the major actors in the Giants’ drama have proved more than capable of going the distance. You know what we’re talking about, East coasters and stat geeks. Don’t you hate it when things don’t follow script? Or maybe that depends on which script you’re following.
No matter. It’s here, its now, and the Giants play the Saints in the Superdome on Sunday, 6 ½ point underdogs, as they should be. They’re at a disadvantage, even if we’d take Eli over Drew, in football and in Barbie Dolls.
Mark Wald is an NFL researcher, writer and regular Cold, Hard Football Facts and CHFF Insider contributor. He has built one of the nation’s most comprehensive databases of historic pointspreads. E-mail him at mdw.wald@gmail.com.
Read more: Week 12
Forearm Shiver: the CHFF Blog
- Wise Guys: Broncos, Patriots, 49ers Top Expected Win Totals In 2013
- Hockey Announcer Gone Wild: You Want To Party (Maybe) With This Guy
- Best Pass Defense Ever: Ronde Barber And The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Reese Witherspoon Arrest Video: Hot, Bothered And Handcuffed
- Sam Adams In A Can, Just In Time For Summer Drinking Season
Quick Outs
- 'Cheeseheads' Reality Show Destined To Suck
- The 5.0 Club: Best Rushing Teams in NFL History
- Sieves: The Worst Run Defenses In NFL History
- 2013 NFL Schedule: The Year Of The Denver Broncos
- Boston, Sports, Patriotism And Terror
- Monsters of the Midway: We Need The Chicago Bears More Than Ever
- The 100 Stingiest Defenses In Football History
- NFL Crown Rule: Will It Dethrone Rushing King Adrian Peterson?
- Big Tease: 2012 New England Patriots And NFL's History Of Offensive Failures
- Epic Fail: The Wide Receiver Draft Class Of 2012
Must See Videos
Philadelphia Eagles Draft Lane Johnson
Connect With Us
Sign up for our newsletter to recieve all the latest news and updates...
 |
 |
 |
RSS Feed
Follow @footballfacts
Follow us on Facebook