Friday Beer Run: Week 2

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 14, 2006


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By the Cold, Hard Football Facts staff
 
Those who peered intently at our new "Gridiron Grid" last week were rewarded handsomely, as we posted a 7-2 record picking the NFL's biggest Week 1 games.
 
Our Gridiron Grid last Thursday indicated Pittsburgh would beat Miami, even without Ben Roethlisberger. Our Week 1 Friday Beer Run, which included a six-pack of analysis, nailed five of six games. Only Carolina let us down with its loss to Atlanta. And we split the Monday Night Football doubleheader. We accurately predicted a big San Diego win over Oakland but anticipated a Washington victory over Minnesota. The Redskins lost by a field goal.
 
Now we're back with our Week 2 Friday Beer Run. The Cold, Hard Football Facts will stock up on beer and data each Friday this season by breaking down a six-pack of key upcoming NFL matchups. We'll also analyze stand-alone games on Thursdays and Mondays.
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats serve as the backbone of each game's analysis. These are "Stats That Matter" – stats, in other words, that have a direct correlation to winning football games.
 
This week's Gridiron Grids show last season's numbers, but the rankings from Week 1 have been taken into consideration as well.
 
The compilations also include relevant team information from our comprehensive new database provided by The Sports Network.
 
Teams
11-5 [0-1]
Overall Record ['06]
9-7 [1-0]
3-4
2-5
68.0 (2)
75.2 (10)
17.46 YPPA (6)
15.04 YPPA (20)
12.66 YPPS (1)
15.08 YPPS (14)
13.3 (12)
15.67 (16)
7.76 (4)
6.76 (15)
-2
+2
37.5
37.5
 
Minnesota's Brad Childress has never lost a game as a head coach. O.K., he's only coached one game. But he won his first one in style, dispatching Hall of Famer Joe Gibbs on Monday night. Now he matches wits with John Fox, veteran of two NFC championship games and a Super Bowl.
 
Without the services of Pro Bowl wideout Steve Smith, the Panthers struggled mightily on offense against Atlanta, managing just two field goals. In Week 1, they finished in the bottom five for both Scoreability and passing yards per attempt (after leading the NFL in Scoreability in 2005).
 
If Smith can get back in the lineup (he's again listed as questionable), Carolina should revert to the stronger numbers that they posted last season. The Panthers have also shown that you should not read too much into the first game of the season. They opened the 2005 campaign with a humiliating home loss to New Orleans, but marched all the way to the NFC title game.
 
Prediction: Panthers 20, Vikings 12
 
Teams
11-5 [0-1]
Overall Record ['06]
6-10 [1-0]
4-5
2-8
76.3 (11)
82.2 (20)
16.69 YPPA (9)
13.42 YPPA (28)
13.71 YPPS (7)
16.48 YPPS (23)
9.7 (7)
21.7 (24)
6.74 (16)
6.30 (25)
+3
-3
42.5
42.5
 
Last year, the Eagles were the only NFC East combatant with a losing record. Now, they stand alone atop the division and play host to the Giants, who took away their division crown after a four-year reign.
 
Consistently ranking in the 20s across our key Quality Stats categories tells the story of Philly's 2005 season – minus protagonist Donovan McNabb and antagonist Terrell Owens. New target Donté Stallworth (141 receiving yards in Week 1) hopes to help the team author a better ending this time around.
 
The Giants finished in the top half of all our "Stats That Matter" a year ago. They were also just one of two teams to beat their Week 1 opponent in most Quality Stats but still lose the game (the other was Buffalo, who lost to New England). New York's balance might be the difference on Sunday.
 
Prediction: Giants 24, Eagles 23
 
Teams
11-5 [0-1]
Overall Record ['06]
8-8 [1-0]
4-3
2-7
73.5 (7)
78.4 (17)
16.23 YPPA (11)
15.25 YGGA (18)
15.72 YPPS (19)
14.89 YPPS (12)
15.0 (16)
12.7 (10)
6.51 (20)
6.45 (21)
+5.5
-5.5
36
36
 
These NFC South rivals come in with records that are the opposite of what the "pundits" expected. The favored Buccaneers got destroyed at home by Baltimore, 27-0, while the underdog Falcons won convincingly at Carolina, 20-6.
 
Last year, both teams were quite comparable in our "Stats That Matter," with Tampa Bay holding a slight edge. But in Week 1, the Bucs ranked dead last in Bendability and in the Hog Index and next-to-last in Scoreability and yards per pass attempt. Tampa, in other words, is the worst team in football ... at least if Week 1 data is any indication of how the season will unfold.
 
Home-field advantage meant little last week (11 of 16 road teams won), but it helps Atlanta get the nod on Sunday.
 
Prediction: Falcons 23, Bucs 20
 
Teams
10-6 [1-0]
Overall Record ['06]
4-12 [1-0]
3-6
2-8
87.8 (26t)
73.1 (6)
15.63 YPPA (15t)
13.92 YPPA (24)
14.86 YPPS (11)
16.54 YPPS (24)
19.0 (19)
29.3 (32)
7.66 (5t)
6.36 (23)
-6
+6
37
37
 
The Patriots struggled at home against the Bills, needing to rally from a 10-point deficit. New England lost in most Quality Stats categories, but still managed to eke out a victory. With Deion Branch holding out (and since traded) and only three wide receivers active, they finished 24th with 5.23 passing yards per attempt.
 
Although the Jets were dreadful in many areas last season, they ranked a surprising sixth in defensive passer rating (73.1) – tops among non-playoff teams. Week 1 saw them climb three spots higher, as they intercepted Tennessee three times.
 
Jets quarterback Chad Pennington must avoid turnovers of his own; in two career home starts against the Patriots, he has thrown 7 picks. No team has intercepted Pennington more than New England has.
 
Prediction: Patriots 22, Jets 13.
 
Teams
10-6 [0-1]
Overall Record ['06]
13-3 [0-1]
6-4
7-3
82.3 (21)
72.2 (4)
16.15 YPPA (12)
19.40 YPPA (3)
15.36 YPPS (17)
14.60 YPPS (9)
4.7 (2)
2 (1)
7.92 (3)
7.25 (10)
+11
-11
40.5
40.5
 
One of these playoff-hopeful AFC West teams will start the season 0-2. It would be a shock for Denver, which lost just three games all last year. 
 
Both clubs suffered setbacks in Week 1, but the Chiefs' loss was more painful because quarterback Trent Green was knocked out with a severe concussion. He will miss at least a couple weeks.
 
Denver could not have been more solid in the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats last season, finishing in the top 10 across the board. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked 26th or worse in three key categories last week.
 
With career backup Damon Huard starting at QB, the Chiefs must lean heavily on Larry Johnson ... and the Broncos will stack the line to stop him. Johnson, playing his first game under head coach Herm Edwards, whose Jets teams were notoriously inept on offense, rushed for just 68 yards last week. It was his lowest output since taking over the starting job in Kansas City halfway through the 2005 season.
 
Prediction: Broncos 27, Chiefs 10
 
Teams
10-6 [0-1]
Overall Record ['06]
9-7 [0-1]
5-5
4-5
70.1 (3)
75.1 (9)
16.27 YPPA (10)
15.63 YPPA (15t)
14.73 YPPS (10)
16.01 YPPS (21)
7 (3)
18.3 (18)
6.96 (13)
7.28 (8)
+6
-6
37
37
 
In a division that is arguably the league's most competitive, the loser of this NFC East matchup will likewise have to dig out of an 0-2 hole. Both teams came up short as favorites in Week 1.
 
The name of our "Hog Index" was inspired by the 80s Redskins, and we see that Joe Gibbs has again developed a stellar offensive line. Washington ranked third in the category last season and claimed the fourth spot after 2006's opening weekend.
 
Last year, the Redskins bested the Cowboys in every "Stat That Matters" except passing yards per attempt; in Week 1, the only category that Dallas gained was defensive passer rating.
 
Prediction: Redskins 21, Cowboys 18


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