Friday Beer Run: a six-pack of analysis

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 07, 2006


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By the Cold, Hard Football Facts staff
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts will stock up on beer and data each Friday this season by breaking down a six-pack of key upcoming NFL matchups.
 
The comparisons use our "Gridiron Grid," which we introduced yesterday and which accurately called for Pittsburgh to beat Miami despite the Steelers' loss of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and despite the hype that has surrounded the Dolphins in the runup to the 2006 season.
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats serve as the backbone of each game's analysis. These are "Stats That Matter" – stats, in other words, that have a direct correlation to winning football games.
 
In addition to the Friday Beer Run, which will look at Sunday games, we'll offer additional "Gridiron Grids" for stand-alone Thursday and Sunday night games.
 
The compilations will also include relevant stats from our comprehensive new database provided by The Sports Network.
 
Teams
5-11
Overall Record
10-6
3-7
3-6
82.1 (19)
87.8 (26t)
14.98 YPPA (21)
15.63 YPPA (15t)
15.21 YPPS (15)
14.86 YPPS (11)
22.0 (26t)
19.0 (19)
6.21 (27)
7.66 (5t)
+9
-9
41
41
 
After capturing three Super Bowl titles in four years, the Patriots struggled through the first half of 2005. Their biggest problem was a secondary that lost safety Rodney Harrison to a severe knee injury in Week 3. New England's defensive passer rating was easily the worst of any playoff team.
 
Buffalo didn't shine in any key category last year. Running back Willis McGahee saw his production slip because of an ineffective line and an inexperienced quarterback (first-year starter J.P. Losman). The Bills did, however, rank in the top half of the league in Scoreability.
 
This AFC East rivalry has been one-sided in recent years, with the Patriots winning five straight games by an average score of 29-9. The Bills have also been held to 17 points or fewer in their last seven trips to Foxboro. Look for more of the same.
 
Prediction: Patriots 31, Bills 16
 
Teams
11-5
Overall Record
10-6
3-4
6-4
72.8 (5)
82.3 (21)
15.48 YPPA (17)
16.15 YPPA (12)
13.61 YPPS (6)
15.36 YPPS (17)
7.3 (4)
4.7 (2)
7.31 (7)
7.92 (3)
+2.5
-2.5
46.5
46.5
 
Both of these teams had high-powered offenses that racked up yardage. But we see from the Scoreability numbers that Cincinnati was more efficient at turning those yards into points. Much of the credit goes to QB Carson Palmer, who will be playing in his first meaningful game since shredding his knee in the wild-card loss to Pittsburgh.
 
According to our Hog Index, Kansas City had the second-best offensive line last year, but it has been weakened considerably but the surprise retirement of Pro Bowl left tackle Willie Roaf. There may now be less running room for stud back Larry Johnson, who averaged 150 rushing yards per game in his nine starts last year.
 
The Bengals' strong defensive passer rating was largely a product of their league-best 31 interceptions. Coming close to that number again will be a challenge. Both teams should put up points in this one.
 
Prediction: Bengals 27, Chiefs 22
 
Teams
8-8
Overall Record
11-5
2-7
3-4
78.4 (17)
68.0 (2)
15.25 YPPA (18)
17.46 YPPA (6)
14.89 YPPS (12)
12.66 YPPS (1)
12.7 (10)
13.3 (12)
6.45 (21)
7.76 (4)
+5
-5
39
39
 
One of these teams has played for the NFC championship in each of the last three years, but only the 2003 Panthers advanced to the Super Bowl. Entering his sixth season, Falcons QB Michael Vick needs to prove he can be a better passer, while the Atlanta defense must do a better job of stopping the pass and keeping points off the board.
 
For Carolina, a hamstring injury has kept wide receiver Steve Smith out of every preseason game. He is listed as questionable for the opener, but indications are that he will play. If Smith is limited, new acquisition Keyshawn Johnson will be asked to pick up the slack.
 
The Panthers are solid in nearly every phase of the game, ranking sixth or better in four key categories last year. They should hold serve in this battle for supremacy in the NFC South.
 
Prediction: Panthers 24, Falcons 17
 
Teams
9-7
Overall Record
12-4
4-5
3-3
75.1 (9)
78.0 (15)
15.63 YPPA (15t)
17.30 YPPA (7)
16.01 YPPS (21)
14.26 YPPS (8)
18.3 (18)
10.0 (8)
7.28 (8)
6.88 (14)
+2.5
-2.5
36.5
36.5
 
The Cowboys had two of the biggest free-agent signings of the offseason, but neither spent much time on the field. Terrell Owens has now proclaimed his hamstring fit for pass-catching duty, while Mike Vanderjagt is hoping his groin injury won't prevent him from kicking in the opener. If healthy, both players could help boost Dallas's low Scoreability number.
 
The Jaguars have gotten considerably less media attention this summer. For a team that went 12-4 last season, they tend to fly under the radar. Of course, the Cold, Hard Football Facts give them their due, noting that Jacksonville ranked in the top 15 in all of the most important categories.
 
This should be one of the best games of the weekend, especially if you like defense. The outcome may depend on whether the Cowboys have all their bullets ready to fire.
 
Prediction: Jaguars 16, Cowboys 14
 
Teams
11-5
Overall Record
4-12
3-4
1-8
61.2 (1)
87.8 (26t)
22.32 YPPA (1)
13.63 YPPA (26)
15.77 YPPS (20)
17.17 YPPS (28)
15.0 (15t)
20.3 (20)
5.27 (32)
6.33 (24)
-3.5
+3.5
35
35
 
Chicago was at opposite ends of the spectrum in the two passing statistics we value most. On offense, its quarterbacks averaged the fewest yards per attempt in the league. But on the other side of the ball, the Bears easily posted the best defensive passer rating and were also the hardest team to score points against.
 
Conversely, Green Bay only knew the down side of the rankings. The Packers finished 20th or worse in all of the major categories and had a winning percentage of .111 against quality opponents. Facing the league's toughest defense certainly won't be an elixir for Brett Favre and his propensity to throw costly interceptions.
 
Last year, Chicago enjoyed its first season sweep of Green Bay since 1991. The Bears will be halfway to a repeat after Sunday.
 
Prediction: Bears 20, Packers 13
 
Teams
14-2
Overall Record
11-5
5-2
4-5
83.0 (23)
76.3 (11)
19.89 YPPA (2)
16.69 YPPA (9)
13.21 YPPS (3)
13.71 YPPS (7)
14.0 (13)
9.7 (7)
8.12 (2)
6.74 (16)
-3.5
+3.5
48
48
 
Perhaps you've heard something about the two quarterbacks involved in this game. Did you realize that they are brothers? Did you know that their dad also played the position in the NFL?
 
This first Sunday night game of the season is much more than a battle between Peyton and Eli Manning. For one, it is the only matchup of the opening weekend that features two playoff teams from last year. Also, both the Colts and Giants graded out well in our "Stats That Matter," with each finishing in the top 10 in three categories.
 
Since running back Edgerrin James is now playing in Arizona, Indy may need to put even more weight on the slumped shoulders of the elder Manning. He should get the better of little brother Eli here.
 
Prediction: Colts 31, Giants 23


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