Free Agent Fantastic Fits: AFC

By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Free Thinker

Oh, sweet leather-helmeted Jesus, is football really right around the corner?
 
We've been spending a lot of the offseason curled up into a collective ball like Nancy Kerrigan before the Olympics crying "Why?", but the labor news is all good lately.
 
It's time to stop looking back at 2010 and worrying about 2011, and time to start figuring out what teams are going to do in free agency for the 2011 season.
 
Unfortunately, there's still some work left to do in this area, so it's not 100-percent clear exactly who will be free and who won't be.
 
But each team has a plan, and for some a single player could make the difference. In 2010, Julius Peppers made an enormous impact on the Chicago Bears, elevating them to the NFC championship game practically by himself. While there doesn't look to be a free agent that's quite as good as Peppers on the market, we identified a non-incumbent player for each team that would fit their needs and budget to a T.

We're counting players with four years under their belts as unrestricted free agents, which seems likely to be part of the labor outcome. And instead of just making Nnamdi Asomugha the dream for every team (which he more or less would be in this pass-happy league), we're identifying a unique player for each team.

Starting with the AFC.

Baltimore: RB Darren Sproles
The Ravens didn't have any glaring weaknesses in our major indicators last year, although they were 22nd in the Offensive Hog Index and have linemen Jared Gaither and Marshal Yanda in free-agency play. Baltimore will have to do some work there, and resigning one or both of those Hogs would be a good start.

But Sproles would really be a nice fit for a team that is stocked with talent. Ray Rice's average dipped from 5.3 yards a carry in 2009 to 4.0 in 2010, and with Willis McGahee out the door there's no clear backup. Sproles could be Rice's insurance and third-down replacement, and contribute on returns.

Buffalo: TE Zach Miller
What do you get the team that needs everything? Buffalo was bad across the board in both our Quality Stats and in general reality, so how about adding a do-it-all tight end that would give QB Ryan Fitzpatrick a bit of a security blanket. Last year's TEs, David Martin and Shawn Nelson, combined for 38 catches and 396 yards.

Cincinnati: MLB Stephen Tulloch
In addition to needing new management, a change of culture and Harvey Keitel's "The Wolf" character from "Pulp Fiction," the Bengals need talent. They used 33-year-old Dhani Jones almost exclusively as their MLB, and he was a big reason Cincinnati fell to 23rd on the Defensive Hog Index from 11th in 2009. Getting younger and better with the 26-year-old Tulloch makes plenty of sense, which means the Bengals certainly won't do it.

Cleveland: WR Santana Moss
The wide-receiver crop is an interesting one this year, with some legitimate No. 1 options out there. But the Browns would be well served to try and get Moss on a two-year deal that serves several needs. While Moss isn't the deep threat he's perceived as (yards per catch no better than 13.2 since 2007), he's a reliable go-to guy. Since breaking out in 2003, he's had no fewer than 790 yards in a season and has only missed five games.

The Browns might well go hard after a bigger name like Sidney Rice or Mike Sims-Walker, but a cheaper and more-known entity like Moss would make more sense as the Browns build a new identity.

Denver: DE Charles Johnson
This one's a no-brainer. Johnson emerged as a star for John Fox in Carolina last year, and with the Broncos having added three linebackers in the draft there's a big need on the D-line. If you forgot, the Broncos were 29th on the Defensive Hog Index last year and dead last in scoring defense, so yeah, they need the help.

Houston: CB Nnamdi Asomugha
Fearless leader Kerry J. Byrne detailed the teams that need Asomugha (pictured) in a recent piece for SI.com, but no one needs him more than the Texans. Forever trying to get over the hump, they turned in a Defensive Passer Rating of 100.5 last year, worst in the league, and it sabotaged what could have been a breakthrough season. Signing Asomugha would at least get them into respectable range, and that might be all they need.

Indianapolis: DT Brandon Mebane
The Colts aren't exactly major players on the defensive tackle market, which explains why they are always in the bottom half of the league on the Defensive Hog Index (28th last year) despite having two Pro Bowl defensive ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

They haven't gone DT in the first round since Ellis Johnson in 1995, and second rounders Larry Tripplett (2002) and Fili Moala (2009) can't be considered breakthroughs. We're not going to second-guess the great Bill Polian, but it does make some sense to add pass rush to the middle with Mebane, a four-year starter in Seattle who provided pressure (5.5 sacks in 2008).

Jacksonville: DE Ray Edwards
The Jaguars have been trying to find a good pass-rushing end for years now, and with money to spend almost have to make a run at a guy like Edwards. From 2008-10, they picked five D-linemen in the first three rounds, yet finished 31st on the Defensive Hog Index in 2010.

But Edwards (16.5 sacks the last two years) has been more than just the "other guy" on Minnesota's great front four, and no one forced fewer Negative Pass Plays than Jacksonville last year.

Kansas City: OLB Matt Roth
The Chiefs have one of the best and most underappreciated pass rushers in the game, Tamba Hali. The Liberian native followed an 8.5-sack season in 2009 with 14.5 in 2010, and was a big reason Kansas City broke through as a playoff team.

But outside linebacker Mike Vrabel had no sacks on the other side of Hali, which seems so impossible that we triple checked it. Yep. It's true. Clearly, Vrabel is more suited to his new job as an Ohio State assistant than to starting in the NFL. Roth would be a solid replacement, a 3-4 OLB who can rush the passer (20 career sacks in spotty duty) and also provide run support. Front-office czar Scott Pioli has money to spend, but will be looking for the best bang for his buck – and a guy like Roth could represent great value.

Miami: RB Ahmad Bradshaw
The Dolphins had a pretty decent football team in 2010, especially on defense where they were fifth on the Defensive Hog Index and 16th in Defensive Quarterback Rating.

But their offense – despite a star left tackle in Jake Long and legitimate No. 1 receiver in Brandon Marshall – was poor. They ranked in the bottom half in the league in all of our offensive indicators. They did go offense with their first three draft picks (center, running back, wideout), leaving one glaring problem: quarterback. Unfortunately, they don't have much choice but to stick with Chad Henne there, so making a run at a true home-run hitter in Bradshaw makes a lot of sense. Bradshaw was fifth in the league with 34 runs of 10+ yards, and averaged 5.3 yards a carry on 1st and 10 – a problem for Miami last year (31st in rushing yards on first down).

New England: DE Shaun Ellis
The Patriots' biggest weakness in 2010 appeared to be their secondary (81.23 Defensive Passer Rating, 13th), but their Defensive Hogs weren't so hot either, coming in at No. 22.

They addressed the problems in the back with rookie Ras-I Dowling, and have veteran Leigh Bodden coming back from injury, but pass rush still looks like a problem. They'll likely be pretty quiet in free agency, but adding a guy like Ellis (pictured) works on many levels – he's a smooth fit in their 3-4, a veteran, and a guy who has had at least 4.5 sacks five years running.

New York Jets: WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
The Jets don't have money for free agents – if they did, they'd be re-signing more of their own instead of letting them go. They don't have any major needs, assuming another step forward from Mark Sanchez, but they will need to replace at least one and probably two of their top three wideouts from last year (Brad Smith, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are UFAs). Houshmandzadeh wasn't great last year (30 catches as the No. 3 WR), but he'll come cheap and fits in with the Jets' veteran theme.

Oakland: CB Johnathan Joseph
Al Davis wasn't willing to continue paying the big bucks for Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Raiders still need a No. 1 cornerback. Even with Asomugha in there, the Raiders were 20th in Defensive Passer Rating (85.56) and had just 12 interceptions. Joseph had six picks in his breakout season of 2009, and is a top corner when healthy – one that doesn't have Asomugha's pricetag.

Oakland has a lot of room under whatever cap is agreed upon, and should be an active player come free-agent frenzy time.

Pittsburgh: G Evan Mathis
The Steelers are in a rough spot. They have a lot of money committed to 2011 salaries, and while they are set for the future at almost every position, their Offensive Hogs are in sketchy shape. Not only did the Steelers finish a mediocre 14th on our Hog Index last year, but top tackle Willie Colon (injured much of last year) is going to be unrestricted.

They may have the juice to get Colon back, but they could probably use more help – and a good low-budget option is Mathis, who was in and out of the lineup in Cincinnati. Bengals observers always maintained that Mathis was good enough to be a regular starter, and having seen him twice a year for a half-decade the Steelers know it.

San Diego: WR Santonio Holmes
The Chargers don't have many needs based on our Quality Stats from a year ago, but they're going to need players – they have 20+ UFAs from last year's roster, and stand to lose WRs Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee from last year's great passing attack.

San Diego doesn't seem to be a stickler for "character guys," so a player like Holmes who has world-class talent might be a smooth fit – and the former Super Bowl hero would also boost their incredibly low "Clutchability Index."

Tennessee: G Justin Blalock
New coach Mike Munchak, a Hall of Fame guard in his playing days, has to be thinking Hogs, Hogs, Hogs. The Titans didn't address their No. 16 Offensive Hogs in the draft, but after watching Chris Johnson try to squeeze through slivers of space all year (4.3 YPA), a splash in free agency is necessary.

The Titans are fairly close to the cap, so a second-tier guy like Blalock – a solid starter in Atlanta – would make a lot of sense.

By Kerry Byrne