Football Feast: Situational Success = ATS Victories

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 26, 2013



CHFF Insider’s four portfolios of picks continue to gain momentum here in the soft, well-fed underbelly of the season – a period we know, and we would love if we had emotions, as the Pigskin High Holidays.

It’s been a festive couple weeks for our picks, led by the CHFF Intelligence Index, which is dabbling with 70 percent against the spread, and closely followed by the King of Props, who has recovered in grand fashion after a brief slump from Weeks 6 to 8.

His Royal Majesty also has a shot at 70 percent with his player props.

We knew the King of Props was money at the start of the year.

The Intelligence Index was the wildcard, but one in which we put great faith based upon our off-season research.

Here's why:

The Quality Stats that excite us most are those that meet a couple criteria: they have a high Correlation to Victory, and they go against the grain of conventional wisdom and/or otherwise examine success factors the pigskin pundits and public overlook.

The Intelligence Index is a winner on all counts. It has a high Correlation to Victory, as we highlight each week. And it’s an examination of so-called “situational football” – something fans and analysts talk about, but have no real way to quantify statistically.

The Intelligence Index gives us a way to quantify situational football, and does it in a very easy-to-understand format.

It allows us to easily distinguish the smart teams that excel in situational football from the dumb teams that habitually struggle in situational football.

More importantly for football fans, it allows you a way to consistently beat the market with money-making “Mental Mismatches.” Smart teams not only consistently beat dumb teams straight up, they consistently blow them out, and cover against the spread at an extraordinarily high clip.

The reason is simple: the public may talk about situational football. But they largely ignore a team's mental capabilities and look only at a team's physical potential when they make their bets. The disparity there, between a team's mental capabilities and physical capabilities, gives us a window to explot that few others even consider.

Put another way, smart football fans are banking on the Intelligence Index this year.

Here’s a look at our Week 12 picks at CHFF Insider:

The King of Props went a perfect 4-0 – a late catch by Washington’s Santana Moss Monday night, right after having a reception called back because of penalty, launched the King of Props’ Monday play into the win column and concluded his third perfect week in 12 opportunities this year.

The King of Props is now a scorching 32-17 (.653) in 2013.

The Intelligence Index went 3-0 both straight up and ATS – and not one of our Week 12 Mental Mismatches was ever in doubt: the Ravens (-3.5) easily beat the Jets, 19-3; the Steelers (+2.5) handled the Browns, 27-11; and the 49ers (-5.5) rolled past the Redskins, 27-6.

The Intelligence Index is now a brilliant 23-4 (.852) straight up and 17-8-2 (.680) ATS. It has not suffered a loss of any kind over the past two weeks.

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 8-5-1 ATS – our second straight winning week ATS after what is still a solidly underperforming season. The stretch run is our money-making time of year, with Real and Spectacular late-season results for CHFF Insiders dating back to 2009.

The CHFF Trifecta went 1-2 playing three over-unders this week – It was our only losing portfolio of picks in Week 12, and comes after a strong 10-5 surge by the Trifecta.

Overall, the King of Props and Intelligence Index look well positioned to produce winning slates for 2013 with five weeks to play, barring a complete collapse.

The CHFF Trifecta is rapidly making up for a poor start and right now is sitting on the cusp of turning in a money-making season with plenty of time to go.

Our Real and Spectacular Picks need a truly spectacular five-week run to close out the season with a winning record against the spread for a fifth straight year. It’s a very long shot at this point.

But this is exactly the time of year that we’ve printed money makers for CHFF Insiders, as we documented before the start of the season.

We’ve gone .500 or better ATS in 20 of 24 weeks over the past four seasons from Week 12 through Week 17.

We’ve gone an incredible 58-27 (.671) ATS from Week 16 through the Super Bowl over the past two seasons, picking the toughest games of the year.

We've gone 15-7 (.682) ATS over the past two postseasons. Best teams. Best players. Toughest games. We analyze every single one of them in great detail and win at a 2-to-1 win clip.

 


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