First-response team: sizing up the Big Six

(Ed. note: going through the Army-Navy photos Monday morning and we came across this classic image that highlights the difference between a fine young man that the nation can be proud of, in this case an Army cadet, and an embittered middle-aged CHFF Troll that the nation should be ashamed of, in this case our own Big Wally, who looks like a drunken Danny Devito by comparison. In case you're wondering what we mean by "CHFF Troll," this image pretty much sums it up perfectly: the poor sense of fashion, the multiple chins, the chubby little limbs, the beer surgically attached to the hand.)

 

 

Sorry for the belated first-response this week, folks. Some of us spent the entire weekend touring the Amish butcheries and cheesesteak stands of Philadelphia, in between trips to a variety of Northeastern nudie bars and the Army-Navy game, not to mention the Carnegie Deli and the Bull's Head pub in Manhattan to take in the Sunday NFL action.

 

Oh, a certain web publisher also got busted by the New York City police for violating a number of Manhattan traffic ordinances in a truck filled with empty bottles of Yuengling. Some advice: "Hey, Starsky, it's legal to make a three-lane right turn on red up in Boston" does not go over well with the local constabulary.

 

In any case, we're back and ready for statistical action: there was a lot of shake-out between the true contenders (Indy, for example) and the obvious pretenders (Denver, for example) here in Week 14. Right now, we see two obvious Super Bowl favorites, four other teams that have a legit shot at winning the Super Bowl, not to mention two dark, dark horses that have enjoyed great success this decade. We wouldn't bet a dime on these black stallions to win it all ... but given the teams that have come out of nowhere to win it all in recent years (the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants most notably), we wouldn't be shocked, either.

 

Given the preponderence of heavyweights (six as we see them), the 2009 season is shaping up to provide one of the more memorable playoff pools in recent history.

 

New Orleans 

The Saints edged out the Falcons on Sunday, 26-23. It was their lowest offensive output since a 24-10 win over the Jets more than two months ago. As you know, we've been playing sousaphone on the Saints bandwagon since back about Week 3. Right now, statistically speaking, they're still the team most likely to win the Super Bowl.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: The Saints still boast the best combination of passing dominance on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by their spectacular +47.3 Passer Rating Differential after Sunday's win at Atlanta. Drew Brees leads the NFL in completion percentage (69.9), YPA (8.87), TD (32) and passer rating (112.3).  

 

Why they won't: The Saints are experiencing a late-season slowdown similar to the one the unbeaten Patriots encountered in 2007. Since pasting this year's Patriots in Week 12, the Saints have eked out a pair of three-point wins over inferior teams. The Patriots did the same thing – a pair of three-point wins over inferior teams – in Weeks 12 and 13 of 2007 and it proved an omen of things to come.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 30 percent

 

Indianapolis

The Colts easily handled the Broncos Sunday, 28-16. If it were up to us, Jim Caldwell would be the unanimous Coach of the Year winner. Sure, he's got a brilliant quarterback. But, judging by the eye test, this is the most well-coached, fundamentally sound and gutty team in football, a finely oiled victory machine. A record 22 regular-season wins speaks for itself. The fact that 13 of them have been led by a rookie coach is even more amazing.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: The Colts boast the NFL's best combination of offensive fireworks (27.6 PPG, fifth) and stifling defense (16.7 PPG, second). No team has more gut-check wins than the Colts this year. They also lead the NFL with a 6-0 mark against Quality Opponents.

 

Why they won't: The Indy offense goes into hibernation in the playoffs every year – 13.6 PPG in the eight Manning Era playoff losses. The Colts killers from San Diego remain in the hunt – and don't forget Indy was six inches away from a home loss against New England ... who they may have to beat again.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 20 percent

 

San Diego 

The Chargers earned a high-quality road win over Dallas Sunday, winning 20-17. Eight straight wins make San Diego the NFL's hottest team not named the Saints or Colts. San Diego has faced seven Quality Opponents this year, compared with six for Indy and five for New Orleans.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: Philip Rivers is quietly having the best season that nobody's ever talked about. He has a higher passer rating (103.7) than Peyton Manning (98.9) and half as many INTs (7 to 14), while his tremendous average of 8.83 YPA is the sixth best mark of the decade – and a shade behind Drew Brees here in 2009 (8.87 YPA).

 

Why they won't: The Chargers of the past five years have been the biggest tease in football – always very good, but never good enough. With playoff teams in 2004, 2006, 2007 and 2008, they've reached just one conference title game. The No. 1 seed and 14-2 Chargers of 2006 didn't even win a playoff game.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 10 percent

 

Minnesota 

The Vikings pulled off their most impressive win of the year Sunday, white-washing the Bengals, 30-10, and slicing through the league's top-rated defense like a hungry CHFF Troll carving up prime rib.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: The Vikings have the sexy "feel" of a Super Bowl contender with a popular, big-armed quarterback, an explosive running back and a playmaking defense.

 

Why they won't: Minnesota has the weakest pass defense of any seriouos contender (90.3 Defensive Passer Rating after Week 14) – not a good sign when a Super Bowl victory will involve beating some combination of the following: Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and/or Philip Rivers. The Vikings also have the quarterback with the longest track record of killing his team in the playoffs and they're extraordinarily overrated as a running team – their average of 4.19 YPA on the ground is 17th in the NFL.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 10 percent

Green Bay

The team we declared our Super Bowl dark horse last week muscled through a 21-14 road win over the Bears Sunday.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: A great passing attack – when it protects the quarterback – and the league's No. 1 Defensive Hogs make for a deadly combination. Green Bay is 9-0 this year when Aaron Rodgers is sacked fewer than six times. He's been sacked a total of six times in the last four weeks.  

 

Why they won't: Green Bay remains an extremely inefficient team in many years, as evidenced by their No. 26 ranking in Bendability through Week 14 (14.55 Yards Per Point Allowed). Marion Crosby has converted just 24 of 32 field goals (75%) – not a comforting rate in the modern NFL and come playoff time, when field goals are likely to be the difference.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 8 percent

 

Arizona 

The Cardinals visit San Francisco Monday night. The 49ers won the first meeting back in Week 1.

 

Why they'll win the Super Bowl: Quarterbacks mean everything in the NFL and nobody is hotter right now than the blazing Kurt Warner. He's also the most successful dome quarterback in playoff history, with a 7-2 mark in domes (6-0 at home).

 

Why they won't: Arizona's defense scares nobody, and Warner has shown a penchant for the killer mistake in two of his three Super Bowl appearances.

 

Our completely random odds of winning it all: 8 percent

The Dark, Dark Horses

Philadelphia: The Eagles look like they'll win the tough NFC East after their 45-38 win over the Giants Sunday night. It's a team of explosive playmakers, as we saw last night, and Donovan McNabb is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. Philly's Defensive Hogs are among the best in the biz, trailing only Green Bay's on our Defensive Hog Index. Our completely random odds of winning it all: 5 percent

 

New England: The Patriots have the feel of a team in complete dissarray, despite their 20-10 win over the Panthers Sunday. The fans are upset. The team's stars are upset. But statistically speaking, the Patriots remain a very competitive and even dangerous team -- No. 6 in scoring offense (26.8 PPG) and No. 7 in scoring defense (18.0) PPG. If they had just gained six more inches against the Colts, they'd still be talked about as a serious contender. Our completely random odds of winning it all: 4 percent

 

Cincinnati: We were ready to jump on the Bengals bandwagon ... and then they lost 30-10 to the Vikings. Cincy has otherwise played well on defense all year, but doesn't look like it has enough offensive punch to truly compete (20.3 PPG, 19th). Our completely random odds of winning it all: 4 percent

 

The Dark, Dark, Dark, Dark Horses

Dallas and Denver? No way. They got no hahhtt. Jags, Jets, Fins or Ravens? They got no quarterback, at least not a Super Bowl caliber QB. Giants? Doesn't look like they'll even make the show at this point. Our completely random odds of winning it all: a combined 1 percent.

By Kerry Byrne