Don't be a mock draft tool

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Apr 17, 2006



So there you are, a pathetic gridiron junkie so desperate for a football fix that you're poring over mock drafts in preparation for the real deal next weekend.
 
Well, here's some advice: Don't waste your f'in time.
 
Pick up a new hobby. Read a book. Play with your kids. Make some Canadian bacon. Roll up a massive ball of belly-button lint.
 
Any and all these pursuits are more fulfilling, valuable and useful than the mock draft.
 
As we chronicled last year, mock drafts are woefully inaccurate. This year's mock drafts will be no exception. The mock drafts you are reading WILL BE WRONG!!! You have our guarantee.
 
So, if you know what you're reading is destined to be wrong, why bother reading it? It's one of those mysteries, like why they still teach Marxism in college, that we just don't understand. If something doesn't work, it's doesn't pay to spend any time on it.
 
We will have plenty on the draft over the next two weeks, highlighted by what you can expect based upon historical standards, a look at all-time best and worst drafts and picks, and a post-draft round-up.
 
But you will never, ever, ever in the history of Cold, Hard Football Facts.com find a mock draft – and for good reason.
 
You will not find a mock draft here because the Cold, Hard Football Facts deal only in reality and useful information. We do not deal in speculation. And, ultimately, that's all a mock draft is: rampant speculation.
 
Even worse – it's rampant speculation that's destined to be wildly inaccurate.
 
Don't believe us? Here's how six noted experts – three writers and three draft specialists – fared last year predicting just the first round of the 2005 draft. The best guessed accurately on just 13 of 32 players. That's the best. And when it came to picking the position that teams would look to fill with their first draft pick, none of the experts we looked at were right even half the time. Not one. They didn't even need the player's name. Just the position the team would look to fill. That's all we asked for. But even with these low standards, the "pundits" failed more often than they succeeded. While .437 makes for a tremendous batting average, it makes for a lousy gauge of the draft.
 
2005 mock draft success
"Pundit"
Correct Players
Correct Positions
13 of 32 (40.6%)
15 of 32 (46.9%)
Pete Prisco
10 of 32 (31.2%)
14 of 32 (43.7%)
9 of 32 (31.2%)
14 of 32 (43.7%)
8 of 32 (25%)
14 of 32 (43.7%)
8 of 32 (25%)
14 of 32 (43.7%)
 4 of 32 (12.5%)
13 of 32 (40.6%)
 
(Is anyone surprised that Ron Borges of the Boston Globe finished dead last? Further proof that the Broadsheet Bully knows nothing about football.)
 
In any case, like we said, if you're looking at mock drafts, you're wasting your time.
 
Sure, there tends to be some semblance of accuracy in the first few picks – as if you need Mel Kiper to tell you Reggie Bush will be the No. 1 or No. 2 pick this year. Didn't your already know that?
 
As you get late in the first round, mock drafts become a crapshoot led by a mute seeing-eye dog. By the second round and beyond, mock drafts are a complete disaster. Teams change their decisions on the fly. Players they hoped to get are already gone. Players they did not expect to get are still sitting there when their pick rolls around. A trade offer comes in over the phone. Picks are bundled and traded. Teams move up and down the board. Needs and player valuations change pick by pick.
 
If you're reading a first-round mock draft, well, it's a free country. Go ahead. But if you're reading a mock draft that goes beyond the first round, you deserve a lifetime pass to Pigskin Detention.
 
Put most simply, even the greatest, most insightful expert in history has no idea how things are going to play out on draft day, especially once you get beyond the blue-chip first-round picks that everybody knows about. Even the teams themselves have no idea how it will play out. They know what they HOPE will happen, but they have no idea what WILL happen.
 
So, if the folks who are actually making the picks have no idea how it's going to go, how can the mock drafters expect to know?
 
They don't.
 
Here's what the mock drafters do know: They know you're a pathetic football junkie, going through the pigskin DTs right now as you await kickoff. The people who publish mock drafts are simply f**kin' with your mind.
 
Don't be a tool for the mock drafters. They're not your friend. Only the Cold, Hard Football Facts are your friend.

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