Does BrettFavre fear the long shadow of Peyton?

 

The Vikings actually won, 24-13, but the victory came courtesy of a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes, one each from back-up QBs Sage Rosenfels and Joe Webb.

 

BrettFavre turns 41 this season. His age showed in the exhibition Saturday, his first real game action since the NFC championship loss to New Orleans back in January. He already owns every major passing record in the books (though he doesn't own every important passing record in the books). And his history of blowing one Super Bowl opportunity after another for the last 12 years would have cowed many a lesser gunslinger into retirement.

 

So, considering all that information, why is BrettFavre back, returning to the game in the typically awkward, divisive and indecisive manner that has defined his later years?

 

Consider the long, creeping shadow cast by one Peyton Manning. At least that's the theory proposed by longtime Troll Rick Stoppe – among the rare loyal CHFF readers who's not one of our moms.

 

Some quarterbacking greats didn't need gaudy stats to seal their reps: Joe Montana is barely in the top 10 in most major career passing stats. But the eye test, the big-game performances and all those Super Bowl rings tell us that he was one of the best ever.

 

Same with Bart Starr: his numbers are paltry by today's standards. But a QB-record five championship rings and the highest postseason passer rating in history tell us that this was a guy who played big when it mattered most and  these accomplishments secure his place among the best ever.

 

BrettFavre's not so lucky. Nobody – at least nobody not named Chris Berman – considers him an elite big-game quarterback. And for all his numbers, he has just one championship in 19 seasons to show for it. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger can sleep well at night by comparison.

 

BrettFavre, for his part, needs all those big gaudy numbers to be considered among the all-time elite quarterbacks. They're his binky.

 

Yet despite those records and the incredible volume numbers, BrettFavre's binky is in jeopardy. He limps back for a 20th NFL season facing the very real possibility that Peyton Manning will eclipse all his records, argues Stoppe.

 

The potential move to an 18-game schedule will further increase the likelihood that Manning will break all these records, especially if Favrer didn't return last year and again this year. Manning averages 250 yards per game in his career. Five years at 18 games equals an additional 10 games. Those 10 games for Manning, if averages hold true, would equal an additional 2,500 yards and nearly 20 TDs to his career totals. Increasingly lax passing rules and an ever-increasing dependence upon the pass could also aid Manning.  

 

Favre's 69,329 yards and 497 TDs can see Manning's 50,128 and 366 glaring at him in his rearview mirror. At Manning's current rate of 4,000 yds and 30 TDs per season, Manning will pass Favre in both categories in five years. 

 

Manning is 34 years old and has never missed a start. So BrettFavre's present numbers are well within reach.  But another year of stat padding by BrettFavre may force Manning to play at a high-level well into his 40s to catch him.

 

Favre will likely get another 3,000 yards and 20 TDs if he stays healthy this season. Using those numbers to pad his totals could be Favre's true motivation, forcing Manning to do his magic for six more years instead of five.   

 

Favre has started 285 consecutive games. In fact, he passed Jim Marshall's record of 282 last season. Manning has started 192 straight games since coming into the league in 1998 -- 93 games away from breaking BrettFavre's amazing standard. It's still a huge gap. But with an 18-game schedule looming, that's just over five seasons. Would Cal Ripken have taken himself out of the line-up if a younger stud was coming up fast?

 

BrettFavre's 181 victories is his most impressive feat. It's made more remarkable when you consider that only 10 quarterbacks in the history of the game have won even 100 games as a starter.

 

With that said, Manning will likely climb into second place on the QB victories list in two seasons. But another season by Favre will make that No. 1 spot much tougher to reach.

 

Tom Brady (97-30) will join this exclusive list of 100-win QBs in 2010 and remains an outside threat to set the record, provided he maintains his health for about eight seasons – and is able to come close to matching the unprecedented success (.764 winning percentage) he had during his first nine years in the league. That situation is hard to envision, though. Donavan McNabb keeps showing up on these lists, too. He has a reasonable shot at the HOF, and an even more reasonable shot at becoming just the 12th QB to win 100 games.

 

(And to think, Eagles fans rejected a guy who's won more games than all but 11 QBs in history. Even worse: McNabb, with another four NFL seasons, could end up in the top five among all time QB victories.)

 

So Manning is clearly the top threat. With five more 10-win seasons – no easy feat – Manning would tie Favre's record as it currently exists. With Favre back for another season, Manning would need to piece together six successful seasons instead of five to own the record for wins.

 

	Name	Period	W	L	T	Pct.
1	Brett Favre	1991-Present	181	104	0	.635
2	John Elway	1983-1998	148	82	1	.643
3	Dan Marino	1983-1999	147	93	0	.613
4	Peyton Manning	1998-Present	131	61	0	.682
5	Fran Tarkenton	1961-1978	124	109	6	.531
6	Johnny Unitas	1956-1973	119	63	4	.651
7	Joe Montana	1979-1994	117	47	0	.713
8	Terry Bradshaw	1970-1983	107	51	0	.677
9	Warren Moon	1984-2000	102	101	0	.502
10	Jim Kelly	1986-1996	101	59	0	.631
11	Tom Brady *	2000-Present	97	30	0	.764
12	Donavan McNabb *	1999-Present	92	49	1	.652

 

SACKS – O.K., when you already hold all the "good" records, why not capture all the bad ones, too? BrettFavre has been sacked 503 times – 13 shy of the mark held by career leader John Elway (516). The Vikings quarterback was taken down 34 times last year. So Elway's standard is clearly in danger. But don't fret, this one's for John: Elway still holds the record for most Super Bowl INTs, with eight. Of course, he's the only quarterback to start five Super Bowls.

 

FUMBLES – BrettFavre has fumbled 159 times, second all time, just shy of Warren Moon's record 161. Amazingly, Favre fumbled just twice during his statistically anomalous 2009 season, after averaging 8.7 per year during his first 18 campaigns. Either way, watch out Warren Moon!

 

INTERCEPTIONS – BrettFavre's 317 interceptions may, in fact, be his most unbreakable record. Manning, for example, has thrown 181 picks in his 12 season -- about 15 per year. He'd have to keep up that rate for more than nine seasons, playing well into his 40s, to match BrettFavre's standard. But just how reckless has BrettFavre been? Actually, not as reckless as the Cold, Hard Football Facts have made him out to be ... at least not in the regular season. But more on that soon!