Divisional Week in Review: Props, Trifecta Power Performance

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 15, 2014



The Cold, Hard Football Facts Polar Express of pigskin produced winning weeks again from the King of Props (3-1) and the CHFF Trifecta.

But big wins by the Patriots and 49ers cost our Real and Spectacular Picks their usual winning postseason performance (3-1 straight up; 1-2-1 against the spread).   

The 1-2-1 performance was just our second slate of ATS losers since Week 10 of the regular season for our flagship picks and brings to an end a huge late-season surge.  

Still, the late-season and postseason results here in 2013 and over the long haul are superb:

  • 64-47-6 (.577) ATS since Week 11
  • 27-12-1 (.692) ATS since Week 16
  • 135-75-2 (.643) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2009-present)
  • 33-18-1 (.647) ATS in the postseason (2009-present)
  • 84-40-2 (.677) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2011-present)
  • 19-10-1 (.655) ATS in the last three postseasons (2011-present)

We’ve known for some time that our Quality Stats grow more valid as we get later in the season. And we now have five seasons of proof.

The late-season surge here in 2013 is part of a long-term trend of big-money-making late-year success dating back to 2009, when we began picking every game, every week, both straight up and ATS.

You can see our performance every week from 2009 to 2012 documented here; and every week’s performance here in 2013 documented below.

You can look up every individual pick from 2010 through 2013 by clicking the "All Stats" button on the NAV bar here at CHFF Insider. You can also find there our week-by-week Quality Stats if you wanted to see where, say, Denver's Passer Rating Differential stood in Week 14 2011. Our individual picks in 2009 can be found with a little digging in our main homesite archive

 

Divisional Week in Review

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 3-1 straight up and 1-2-1 ATS – Two games cost us another winning week.

We expected the Colts to make a game of it in New England. Instead, they were overpowered and blown out by LeGarrette Blount and the Get Tough or Die Patriots.   

And we stated that the Panthers, who won the first meeting with the 49ers, were statistically built to stop San Francisco. They were not. The 49ers pounded out a hard-nosed 23-10 win in Carolina.

 

The King of Props went 3-1, including a 2-0 performance out of the gate on Saturday. – Craftily spotting two winners with picks that went against the overall outcome of the game.

Seattle WR Golden Tate (Under 4.5 catches) was an easy winner on Saturday, catching only one ball in his team’s 23-15 win over the Saints. Indy unheralded WR Griff Whalen (Over 2.5 catches), who caught just 24 passes all season, proved one of Andrew Luck’s top targets with 5 catches in the 43-22 loss to the Patriots.

San Francisco WR Michael Crabtree (Over 67.5 receiving yards) has been a stud batterymate for Colin Kaepernick, but on Sunday he proved the week’s only loser (26 receiving yards) despite his team’s big win. San Diego  WR Keenan Allen (Over 4.5 catches) easily proved his team’s biggest weapon (6 catches, 142 yards, 2 TD) despite his teams’ offensive struggles.  

The King of Props is a scorching 49-26-1 (.653) in 2013, and over the second half of the year produced an electrifying record of 29-12 (.707), since Week 9.

 

The CHFF Trifecta went 2-1 – its third straight slate of winners, a period during with the Trifecta has gone 8-3 (.727). The Trifecta, after a slow start to the year, can move into winning territory for the season with a strong finish over the final three games.

The Patriots (-7) easily covered with their 43-22 win, but high-scoring game bested the Trifecta’s expectations (Under 51.5). Seattle (-7.5) narrowly eked out a victory with its 23-15 victory over New Orleans. The game was -8 when we published our Real and Spectacular Pick.  

The Trifecta is 6-2 (.750) in the postseason and 27-29-3 (.482) overall in 2013.

 

The Intelligence Index has not offered any postseason picks – with largely only smart teams advancing to the playoffs, there are  few opportunities to find those “Mental Mismatches” that served us and CHFF Insiders so well all season.

But as we noted here recently, winning in the NFL is almost always a matter of Brains Over Brawn.

The Intelligence Index closed its debut season of “Mental Mismatches” with a record of 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS.

 

Weekly Year-to-Date Results

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-1-1

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props Week 13 – 3-1

King of Props Week 14 – 4-0

King of Props Week 15 – 2-2

King of Props Week 16 – 2-1

King of Props Week 17 – 1-1

King of Props Wildcard – 2-2

King of Props Divisional – 3-1

Final 2013 regular season – 44-23-1 (.657)

2013 postseason – 5-3 (.625)

Total 2013 season – 49-26-1 (.653)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 10-5 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 13 – 9-7 straight up; 5-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 14 – 13-3 straight up; 9-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 15 – 8-8 straight up; 8-7-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 16 – 11-5 straight up; 11-5 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 17 – 13-3 straight up; 12-4 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Wildcard – 1-3 straight up; 3-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Divisional – 3-1 straight up; 1-2-1 ATS

Final 2013 regular season – 162-93-1 (.635) straight up; 113-134-9 (.457) ATS

2013 postseason – 4-4 straight up (.500); 4-3-1 (.571) ATS

Total 2013 season – 166-97-1 (.631) straight up; 117-137-10 (.461) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 13 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 14 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 15 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 16 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 17 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Wildcard – no picks

Intelligence Index Divisional – no picks

Final 2013 regular season – 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 13 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 14 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 15 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 16 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 17 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Wildcard – 4-1

CHFF Trifecta Divisional – 2-1

Final 2013 regular season – 21-27-3 (.438)

2013 postseason – 6-2 (.750)

Total 2013 season – 27-29-3 (.482)

 

Divisional Round Real and Spectacular Picks

New Orleans at Seattle (-8)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 26, New Orleans 21

Final Score: Seattle 23, New Orleans 15

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS push (0-0-1)

 

Indianapolis at New England (-7)

CHFF Pick: New England 27, Indianapolis 24

Final Score: New England 43, Indianapolis 22

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-0); ATS loss (0-1-1)

 

San Francisco (-1) at Carolina

CHFF Pick: Carolina 20, San Francisco 17

Final Score: San Francisco 23, Carolina 10

CHFF Result: straight up loss (2-1); ATS loss (0-2-1)

 

San Diego at Denver (-9.5)

CHFF Pick: Denver 28, San Diego 24

Final Score: Denver 24, San Diego 17

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-1); ATS win (1-2-1)


From our partners




Team Pages
AFC East NFC
South
North
West

Connect With Us
Sign up for our newsletter to recieve all the latest news and updates...




The Football Nation Network

© Copyright 2014 Football Nation LLC. Privacy Policy & Terms of Use   Logout
Some images property of Getty Images or Icon/SMI