Clowns and jokers: the mock draft scorecard

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Apr 21, 2008



The mock-draft "expert" is the used-car salesman of the sports world, a greasy snake making it up as he goes, hoping you won't notice the rusty bucket of his expertise beneath the suit he wears like a cheap paint job.
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been making a mockery of the mock draft since our first off-season in 2005. It's easy to do: mock drafts are so inaccurate that we confuse them with the Chicago Bears passing game.
 
The basic problem is this: even the most noted draft "experts" have no idea what's going to happen in the draft. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. They are, in other words, clueless.
 
Mel Kiper? Clueless.
 
Scouts, Inc.? Clueless.
 
Fox Sports? Clueless.
 
We know they're clueless because we work with the trusty pigskin mechanic called the Cold, Hard Football Facts and they spotlight all the flaws on the lemon the draft-niks are trying to pawn off on you.
 
We've tracked the final mock draft performance of six noted draft-niks each of the past three years. We've followed four of these draft "pundits" – including some of the most notable draft "experts" – in each of those three years. Forced to describe their mock drafts in one word, we'd use "laughingstock."
 
Here's the cumulative first-round-only mock draft performance of these four experts over the past three seasons.
 
MOCK DRAFT TRACK RECORD (first round, 2005-07)
Mock Draft Clown
No. correct
Pct.
OurLads
29 of 96
30.2%
Jay Glazer (Fox Sports)
28 of 96
29.2%
Mel Kiper Jr.
25 of 96
26.0%
Scouts Inc.
22 of 96
22.9%
 
On average, even the most noted draft "experts" get about 8 or 9 of the 32 first-round picks correct.
 
But it's even worse than it appears, folks.
 
The bulk of those 8 or 9 correct picks come in the first 12 to 15 picks of the first round. They may get one or two picks right in the second half of the first round. Last year, for example, our group of six draft experts accurately predicted:
  • 46 of 96 picks (47.9%) in the first half of the first round
  • just 11 of 96 picks (11.5%) in the second half of the first round
After that, the greatest draft "pundits" get zero (that's 0 for those of you counting at home) correct in any round beyond the first round.
 
So, to give you the whole sordid story: the "experts" nail, on average, about 9 of the 220-plus players selected in the NFL draft. That's about 4 percent correct (or 96 percent wrong). We don't care what line of business you're in, a 4 percent success rate does not make you an "expert."
 
The only thing that's a bigger waste of time than a mock draft is actually giving credence to what these totally inaccurate mock drafts offer. Sadly, football fans are often guilty: "Hey, Scouts, Inc. thinks we're going to draft Billy Joe Jim Bob! Awesome!!!"
 
But as you just witnessed, the draft-niks have no idea what's going to happen on Draft Day. These greasy snakes of the sports world just make it up as they go, their partially educated guesses no more accurate than the partially educated guesses of the average football fan sitting there at home.

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