CHFF Super Study: Which QBs protect it best?

By Scott Kacsmar
Cold, Hard Football Facts Detail Worker

Interceptions are embedded into the minds of NFL fans as the ultimate quarterback turnover. They’re the only negative play factored into the league’s passer rating formula.

“Pick 6” is a commonly used term for the ones that are returned for touchdowns, but how often do you hear “fumble-six” in a game?
 
How about fumbles, period? They’re just as much of a turnover as an interception, and in most cases with a quarterback, they usually happen at or behind the line of scrimmage. At least a good amount of interceptions occur down the field to the point where they serve as punts. A fumbling quarterback is hurting his team the same way as the quarterback that’s throwing interceptions.
 
Just like interceptions, these mistakes are not always the quarterback’s fault, though they’re the player that takes the blame statistically. Whether it’s a tipped pass or a bad exchange with the center on the snap, the quarterback takes the blame.
 
Most NFL fans are probably familiar with the fact that Eli Manning threw a league-high 25 interceptions in 2010. How many also know Eli fumbled 7 times, losing 5 of them for 30 turnovers? That’s a large number, but volume by itself is not useful. Eli also had 587 dropbacks. Brett Favre threw 19 interceptions and fumbled 7 times in his (we think) final season. The difference is Favre only had 397 dropbacks.
 
Which quarterback had a worse year with turnovers? This is why we need to convert volume stats into a rate stat.

The Formula

Calculating a quarterback’s turnover rate is simple.
 
Turnover % = Total Turnovers x 100%
                        Total Drop Backs
 
Total Turnovers = Fumbles + Interceptions
Total Drop Backs = Pass Attempts + Sacks + Rushes
 
The same idea can be applied for a Fumble %.
 
Fumble % = Total Fumbles    x 100%
                    Total Drop Backs
 
Fumbles were used instead of Fumbles Lost due to a lack of data for the latter, plus the research from Football Outsiders that says fumble recoveries are random from year-to-year. Not fumbling the ball is a skill, and that is being rewarded here. Any time you fumble the ball you’re giving the defense the opportunity for a recovery and big turnover.
 

The Data

To officially qualify for rate statistics in the NFL, a quarterback must attempt at least 1,500 passes in the regular season. 166 quarterbacks have done so, and they make up our sample size.
 
Out of the 166 quarterbacks, 35 of them have data that is incomplete in regards to the number of sacks, while two of those quarterbacks (Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman) also have an incomplete number of fumbles.
 
Sacks are listed at nfl.com for all NFL seasons since 1963. They have the sack yardage for seasons back to 1947, but the times sacked only start in 1963. There are no sack stats (totals or yardage) for AFL seasons from 1960-66.
 
Individual fumbles are not listed on pro-football-reference.com until the 1945 season; while nfl.com doesn’t include fumbles until 1991 (fumbles lost begin with 1992).
 
Active players appear in bold, while the 35 players with incomplete data are in italics, as is the field of data that’s incomplete.
 
Only regular season data is included, and this is updated through Week 7 of the 2011 season.
 

The List

Here is the all-time list for Turnover %, which also includes the rankings for interception percentage (INT%) and fumble rate (Fum%):
 

All-Time Turnover % (Min. 1,500 Attempts)

Rk	QB	Passes	Sacks	Rushes	Total DB	Fum	Fum%	Rk	INT	INT%	Rk	TO	TO%
1	Aaron Rodgers	1850	140	218	2208	28	1.27	31	35	1.89	1	63	2.85
2	Matt Ryan	1708	77	149	1934	18	0.93	7	42	2.46	10	60	3.10
3	Joe Montana	5391	313	457	6161	53	0.86	5	139	2.58	16	192	3.12
4	Neil O'Donnell	3229	259	215	3703	51	1.38	44	68	2.11	2	119	3.21
5	Peyton Manning	7210	231	346	7787	57	0.73	2	198	2.75	25	255	3.27
6	Jeff Garcia	3676	181	467	4324	59	1.36	41	83	2.26	5	142	3.28
7	Tom Brady	4947	255	346	5548	72	1.30	34	111	2.24	4	183	3.30
8	Donovan McNabb	5374	410	616	6400	95	1.48	67	117	2.18	3	212	3.31
9	Mark Brunell	4637	390	513	5540	76	1.37	43	108	2.33	6	184	3.32
10	Steve Young	4149	358	722	5229	68	1.30	35	107	2.58	17	175	3.35
11	David Garrard	2281	179	380	2840	44	1.55	75	54	2.37	8	98	3.45
12	Bernie Kosar	3365	273	180	3818	51	1.34	38	87	2.59	18	138	3.61
13	Kyle Orton	2107	131	104	2342	30	1.28	32	55	2.61	20	85	3.63
14	Rich Gannon	4206	302	521	5029	79	1.57	81	104	2.47	12	183	3.64
15	Matt Schaub	2211	121	152	2484	34	1.37	42	57	2.58	15	91	3.66
16	Drew Brees	5121	197	274	5592	66	1.18	25	140	2.73	24	206	3.68
17	Matt Cassel	1668	129	180	1977	30	1.52	71	43	2.58	14	73	3.69
18	Chad Pennington	2471	162	180	2813	41	1.46	58	64	2.59	19	105	3.73
19	Troy Aikman	4715	259	327	5301	58	1.09	15	141	2.99	34	199	3.75
20	Matt Hasselbeck	4490	317	311	5118	59	1.15	19	134	2.98	32	193	3.77
21	Philip Rivers	2673	155	185	3013	47	1.56	79	67	2.51	13	114	3.78
22	Marc Bulger	3171	254	118	3543	42	1.19	26	93	2.93	30	135	3.81
23	Charlie Batch	1510	156	169	1835	23	1.25	29	47	3.11	43	70	3.81
24	Jim McMahon	2573	226	338	3137	30	0.96	8	90	3.50	69	120	3.83
25	Brad Johnson	4326	251	276	4853	64	1.32	37	122	2.82	26	186	3.83
26	Jason Campbell	2131	147	218	2496	46	1.84	119	50	2.35	7	96	3.85
27	Joe Flacco	1627	121	144	1892	34	1.80	115	39	2.40	9	73	3.86
28	Bert Jones	2551	232	247	3030	16	0.53	1	101	3.96	95	117	3.86
29	Joey Harrington	2538	124	142	2804	25	0.89	6	85	3.35	59	110	3.92
30	Ben Roethlisberger	3034	294	280	3608	51	1.41	51	92	3.03	36	143	3.96
31	Steve McNair	4544	254	669	5467	99	1.81	118	119	2.62	21	218	3.99
32	Steve Bono	1701	76	125	1902	34	1.79	113	42	2.47	11	76	4.00
33	Ken Anderson	4475	398	397	5270	52	0.99	11	160	3.58	80	212	4.02
34	Jim Harbaugh	3918	361	561	4840	79	1.63	96	117	2.99	33	196	4.05
35	Carson Palmer	3238	160	179	3577	42	1.17	21	103	3.18	50	145	4.05
36	Dan Marino	8358	270	301	8929	110	1.23	27	252	3.02	35	362	4.05
37	Jeff George	3967	358	168	4493	70	1.56	78	113	2.85	27	183	4.07
38	Doug Flutie	2151	107	338	2596	38	1.46	62	68	3.16	49	106	4.08
39	Kordell Stewart	2358	170	601	3129	44	1.41	48	84	3.56	79	128	4.09
40	Neil Lomax	3153	362	222	3737	63	1.69	102	90	2.85	29	153	4.09
41	Trent Green	3740	259	243	4242	60	1.41	52	114	3.05	38	174	4.10
42	Tony Eason	1564	177	134	1875	26	1.39	45	51	3.26	51	77	4.11
43	Ken O'Brien	3602	353	174	4129	72	1.74	109	98	2.72	23	170	4.12
44	Elvis Grbac	2445	129	163	2737	32	1.17	20	81	3.31	55	113	4.13
45	Jeff Hostetler	2338	207	316	2861	48	1.68	101	71	3.04	37	119	4.16
46	Joe Theismann	3602	340	355	4297	42	0.98	9	138	3.83	90	180	4.19
47	Byron Leftwich	1552	89	136	1777	34	1.91	134	41	2.64	22	75	4.22
48	John Elway	7250	516	774	8540	137	1.60	89	226	3.12	44	363	4.25
49	Jeff Blake	3241	248	418	3907	68	1.74	107	99	3.05	39	167	4.27
50	Tony Romo	2287	117	142	2546	41	1.61	91	68	2.97	31	109	4.28
51	Michael Vick	2315	229	698	3242	73	2.25	155	66	2.85	28	139	4.29
52	Randall Cunningham	4289	484	775	5548	105	1.89	131	134	3.12	45	239	4.31
53	Drew Bledsoe	6717	467	385	7569	123	1.63	95	206	3.07	40	329	4.35
54	Aaron Brooks	2963	235	362	3560	64	1.80	116	92	3.10	42	156	4.38
55	Jim Everett	4923	257	257	5437	64	1.18	23	175	3.55	77	239	4.40
56	Brett Favre	10169	525	602	11296	166	1.47	65	336	3.30	53	502	4.44
57	Stan Humphries	2516	144	150	2810	41	1.46	60	84	3.34	57	125	4.45
58	Roger Staubach	2958	313	410	3681	55	1.49	68	109	3.68	83	164	4.46
59	Bubby Brister	2212	193	191	2596	38	1.46	63	78	3.53	71	116	4.47
60	Rick Mirer	2043	199	242	2484	35	1.41	50	76	3.72	87	111	4.47
61	Phil Simms	4647	477	349	5473	93	1.70	103	157	3.38	62	250	4.57
62	Fran Tarkenton	6467	483	675	7625	84	1.10	16	266	4.11	103	350	4.59
63	Erik Kramer	2299	122	153	2574	40	1.55	77	79	3.44	65	119	4.62
64	Jay Fiedler	1717	114	219	2050	29	1.41	53	66	3.84	91	95	4.63
65	Jim Kelly	4779	323	304	5406	76	1.41	47	175	3.66	82	251	4.64
66	Brian Griese	2796	193	238	3227	51	1.58	83	99	3.54	75	150	4.65
67	Jake Plummer	4350	284	428	5062	75	1.48	66	161	3.70	84	236	4.66
68	Eli Manning	3528	180	174	3882	63	1.62	94	118	3.34	58	181	4.66
69	Mark Rypien	2613	97	127	2837	45	1.59	87	88	3.37	61	133	4.69
70	Chris Miller	2892	209	178	3279	52	1.59	86	102	3.53	72	154	4.70
71	Jay Cutler	2439	159	211	2809	47	1.67	100	85	3.49	68	132	4.70
72	Bill Kenney	2430	191	123	2744	43	1.57	80	86	3.54	74	129	4.70
73	Greg Landry	2300	316	430	3046	41	1.35	40	103	4.48	115	144	4.73
74	Dave Brown	1634	181	192	2007	37	1.84	120	58	3.55	76	95	4.73
75	Alex Smith	1672	144	142	1958	38	1.94	136	55	3.29	52	93	4.75
76	Doug Williams	2507	84	220	2811	41	1.46	59	93	3.71	85	134	4.77
77	Kerry Collins	6261	337	374	6972	139	1.99	141	196	3.13	46	335	4.80
78	Wade Wilson	2428	217	239	2884	38	1.32	36	102	4.20	107	140	4.85
79	Gus Frerotte	3106	207	196	3509	65	1.85	122	106	3.41	63	171	4.87
80	Roman Gabriel	4498	348	358	5204	105	2.02	142	149	3.31	54	254	4.88
81	David Carr	2264	266	302	2832	70	2.47	159	71	3.14	47	141	4.98
82	Bobby Hebert	3121	178	195	3494	50	1.43	55	124	3.97	96	174	4.98
83	Ron Jaworski	4117	363	257	4737	72	1.52	72	164	3.98	97	236	4.98
84	Jake Delhomme	2904	166	175	3245	61	1.88	127	101	3.48	67	162	4.99
85	Steve Beuerlein	3328	332	225	3885	82	2.11	149	112	3.37	60	194	4.99
86	Warren Moon	6823	458	543	7824	161	2.06	146	233	3.41	64	394	5.04
87	Bill Nelsen	1905	146	84	2135	41	1.92	135	67	3.52	70	108	5.06
88	Vinny Testaverde	6701	417	430	7548	116	1.54	73	267	3.98	98	383	5.07
89	Bill Munson	1982	192	130	2304	37	1.61	90	80	4.04	99	117	5.08
90	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	240	181	4683	50	1.07	13	189	4.43	112	239	5.10
91	Kurt Warner	4070	260	173	4503	102	2.27	156	128	3.14	48	230	5.11
92	Chris Chandler	4005	380	371	4756	98	2.06	148	146	3.65	81	244	5.13
93	Boomer Esiason	5205	318	447	5970	123	2.06	147	184	3.54	73	307	5.14
94	Tony Banks	2356	227	246	2829	73	2.58	165	73	3.10	41	146	5.16
95	Steve Bartkowski	3456	356	178	3990	62	1.55	76	144	4.17	104	206	5.16
96	Gary Danielson	1932	183	186	2301	41	1.78	112	78	4.04	100	119	5.17
97	Daunte Culpepper	3199	298	514	4011	102	2.54	163	106	3.31	56	208	5.19
98	Tim Couch	1714	166	124	2004	37	1.85	121	67	3.91	93	104	5.19
99	Steve Deberg	5024	296	204	5524	83	1.50	70	204	4.06	101	287	5.20
100	Mike Pagel	1509	115	136	1760	29	1.65	98	63	4.17	105	92	5.23
101	Tommy Kramer	3651	249	214	4114	59	1.43	57	158	4.33	109	217	5.27
102	Jay Schroeder	2808	208	242	3258	64	1.96	138	108	3.85	92	172	5.28
103	Kyle Boller	1519	123	176	1818	42	2.31	157	54	3.55	78	96	5.28
104	Jim Zorn	3149	213	322	3684	54	1.47	64	141	4.48	114	195	5.29
105	Scott Mitchell	2346	155	172	2673	50	1.87	125	92	3.92	94	142	5.31
106	Rodney Peete	2346	244	270	2860	71	2.48	160	81	3.45	66	152	5.31
107	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	125	99	1931	39	2.02	143	64	3.75	89	103	5.33
108	Jon Kitna	4442	323	311	5076	110	2.17	151	165	3.71	86	275	5.42
109	Brian Sipe	3439	224	223	3886	62	1.60	88	149	4.33	110	211	5.43
110	Archie Manning	3642	396	384	4422	73	1.65	99	173	4.75	120	246	5.56
111	Bart Starr	3149	235	247	3631	64	1.76	111	138	4.38	111	202	5.56
112	Bob Griese	3429	335	261	4025	52	1.29	33	172	5.02	130	224	5.57
113	Mike Tomczak	2337	114	198	2649	42	1.59	85	106	4.54	117	148	5.59
114	John Brodie	4491	142	235	4868	48	0.99	10	224	4.99	129	272	5.59
115	Joe Ferguson	4519	312	353	5184	82	1.58	84	209	4.62	118	291	5.61
116	Jim Hart	5076	282	159	5517	65	1.18	24	247	4.87	122	312	5.66
117	Dave Krieg	5311	494	417	6222	153	2.46	158	199	3.75	88	352	5.66
118	Dan Fouts	5604	319	224	6147	106	1.72	105	242	4.32	108	348	5.66
119	Trent Dilfer	3172	263	248	3683	82	2.23	153	129	4.07	102	211	5.73
120	Billy Kilmer	2984	206	362	3552	58	1.63	97	146	4.89	125	204	5.74
121	Craig Morton	3786	405	215	4406	68	1.54	74	187	4.94	128	255	5.79
122	Daryle Lamonica	2601	136	166	2903	32	1.10	17	138	5.31	135	170	5.86
123	Frank Ryan	2133	150	310	2593	42	1.62	93	111	5.20	131	153	5.90
124	Jim Plunkett	3701	380	323	4404	62	1.41	49	198	5.35	138	260	5.90
125	Mike Livingston	1751	152	156	2059	39	1.89	132	83	4.74	119	122	5.93
126	Johnny Unitas	5186	230	450	5866	95	1.62	92	253	4.88	123	348	5.93
127	Milt Plum	2419	74	217	2710	34	1.25	30	127	5.25	132	161	5.94
128	Danny White	2950	245	159	3354	68	2.03	144	132	4.47	113	200	5.96
129	Mark Malone	1648	86	159	1893	33	1.74	108	81	4.92	127	114	6.02
130	Richard Todd	2967	264	259	3490	50	1.43	56	161	5.43	141	211	6.05
131	Marc Wilson	2081	210	141	2432	46	1.89	129	102	4.90	126	148	6.09
132	Tom Flores	1715	9	82	1806	18	1.00	12	92	5.36	139	110	6.09
133	Charley Johnson	3392	242	196	3830	56	1.46	61	181	5.34	137	237	6.19
134	Vince Ferragamo	1615	94	60	1769	19	1.07	14	91	5.63	143	110	6.22
135	Len Dawson	3741	216	294	4251	84	1.98	140	183	4.89	124	267	6.28
136	Terry Bradshaw	3901	307	444	4652	84	1.81	117	210	5.38	140	294	6.32
137	Eric Hipple	1546	160	145	1851	47	2.54	162	70	4.53	116	117	6.32
138	Joe Namath	3762	150	71	3983	33	0.83	4	220	5.85	148	253	6.35
139	John Hadl	4687	198	351	5236	73	1.39	46	268	5.72	144	341	6.51
140	Dan Pastorini	3055	246	216	3517	69	1.96	137	161	5.27	133	230	6.54
141	Norm Snead	4353	270	212	4835	60	1.24	28	257	5.90	151	317	6.56
142	Jack Trudeau	1644	103	97	1844	52	2.82	166	69	4.20	106	121	6.56
143	Don Meredith	2308	218	242	2768	71	2.57	164	111	4.81	121	182	6.58
144	Mike Phipps	1799	172	254	2225	39	1.75	110	108	6.00	153	147	6.61
145	Billy Wade	2523	47	318	2888	57	1.97	139	134	5.31	136	191	6.61
146	Y.A. Tittle	3817	54	291	4162	56	1.35	39	221	5.79	147	277	6.66
147	Steve Grogan	3593	252	445	4290	81	1.89	128	208	5.79	146	289	6.74
148	Earl Morrall	2689	174	235	3098	63	2.03	145	148	5.50	142	211	6.81
149	Lynn Dickey	3125	297	140	3562	64	1.80	114	179	5.73	145	243	6.82
150	Don Majkowski	1905	180	248	2333	59	2.53	161	101	5.30	134	160	6.86
151	Ken Stabler	3793	281	118	4192	66	1.57	82	222	5.85	149	288	6.87
152	Otto Graham	1565	0	306	1871	35	1.87	126	94	6.01	154	129	6.89
153	Charlie Conerly	2833	0	270	3103	54	1.74	106	167	5.89	150	221	7.12
154	Tobin Rote	2907	0	635	3542	67	1.89	130	191	6.57	158	258	7.28
155	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	0	102	2997	45	1.50	69	178	6.15	155	223	7.44
156	Jack Kemp	3073	59	356	3488	78	2.24	154	183	5.96	152	261	7.48
157	Bobby Layne	3700	0	611	4311	80	1.86	123	243	6.57	157	323	7.49
158	Sammy Baugh	2995	0	324	3319	47	1.42	54	203	6.78	160	250	7.53
159	Sid Luckman	1744	0	204	1948	15	0.77	3	132	7.57	164	147	7.55
160	Cotton Davidson	1752	0	129	1881	35	1.86	124	108	6.16	156	143	7.60
161	Ed Brown	1987	80	265	2332	40	1.72	104	138	6.95	162	178	7.63
162	Babe Parilli	3330	32	383	3745	71	1.90	133	220	6.61	159	291	7.77
163	George Blanda	4007	17	135	4159	47	1.13	18	277	6.91	161	324	7.79
164	Frank Tripucka	1745	0	43	1788	21	1.17	22	124	7.11	163	145	8.11
165	Eddie LeBaron	1796	9	202	2007	44	2.19	152	141	7.85	165	185	9.22
166	Bob Waterfield	1617	0	75	1692	36	2.13	150	128	7.92	166	164	9.69

 

The Analysis

You can copy the data to Excel and draw your own conclusions, but we have several points of interest to go over. Truthfully, every single quarterback has their own story to dig into, but there’s only so much time and space.
 

The Difference in Era

The first thing that probably jumps out is the way active quarterbacks dominate the top of the list, taking 19 of the top 35 spots. Five more quarterbacks were active in 2007 or later.
 
When Green Bay played Atlanta on Sunday Night Football a few weeks back, how many people thought they were watching the two quarterbacks with the lowest Turnover % in NFL history? Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan start the list, and they both became starters in 2008. David Garrard (11^th) was actually in the #1 spot just a few years ago, but a case of fumbilitis knocked him down.
 
If you’re playing in today’s era, you have an advantage because of the shorter, safer passing game. Bert Jones (28^th) is the only quarterback in the top 30 that started his career prior to the 1978 rule changes in the passing game. More on Jones later.
 
Other than Jones, the only other quarterback in the top 45 to start his career in the 1970’s is Cold, Hard Football Facts favorite Ken Anderson (33^rd).
 
Maybe it’s fitting that Roger Staubach (58^th) and Fran Tarkenton (62^nd) are the highest ranked quarterbacks to start their careers before 1970. Staubach barely makes the cut with a 1969 debut.
 
Kyle Boller (103^rd) did himself no favors after a putrid performance against Kansas City last week. He may never start another game after that one. Only Jon Kitna (108^th) ranks lower among active players. Boller was Oakland’s stopgap between Jason Campbell (26^th) and Carson Palmer (35^th).
 

The Style of Offense

Another critical factor in where you may end up on the list is what type of offense you mostly ran in your career. There are a lot of West Coast Offense quarterbacks at the top, while the gunslingers/vertical passers don’t fare as well, such as Dan Fouts (118^th) sitting between Dave Krieg and Trent Dilfer. Also ranking lower than expected is Kurt Warner (91^st), though that is more to do with his 156^th ranking in fumbles.
 
Brett Favre (56^th) doesn’t impress in either fumbles (65^th) or interceptions (53^rd).
 
Many of the quarterbacks in the top 30 were mobile, and they were sacked often. 13/30 have a career sack % of 7.0% or worse, which would rank them out of the top 100 in sack %. This might be the mathematical balance of taking sacks instead of forcing plays that become turnovers.
 

Credit to the Old Guys

Since their data is incomplete, there are 35 players on the list that would all see their numbers improve if we had sack totals for their careers. The only players that might decline would be Luckman and Baugh because of the missing fumbles.
 
How much would they improve? We can make some predictions.
 
Fran Tarkenton is the highest ranked player with incomplete data. The only missing data is his sack totals for his first two seasons (1961-62). He lost 416 and 450 yards on sacks those years. He had similar numbers the following two years, on 46 and 42 sacks.
 
Brett Favre holds the record for times sacked at 525, but it’s clear that Tarkenton (483) was likely sacked the most. By adding a modest 85 sacks to his total, his Turnover % would change from 4.59% to 4.54%, which would move him just one spot ahead to 61^st, jumping over Phil Simms. Not a huge leap.
 
That’s just the case of one quarterback that has most of his sacks accounted for.
 
Y.A. Tittle (146^th) only has 54 sacks, but 3,000 yards lost due to sacks. If we assume the average yardage lost on a sack was 7 yards in Tittle’s career, then his predicted sack total is 429. That changes his Turnover % from 6.66% to 6.11%, which would move him up 13 spots to 133^rd.
 
The older players are still going to hang around the bottom, but you can see that complete data would make their numbers look better.
 
This also makes Ken Stabler (151^st) look worse, and is a knock against his HOF case, as he would likely fall behind a few more spots to players such as Otto Graham, Tobin Rote and Charlie Conerly.
 

The Fumbles

Interceptions are passé, as most people are already familiar with those stats. Time to devote a segment to the quarterbacks that protected the ball the best when it was in their hands. There’s one franchise that stands out the most in this regard (the Colts), and what’s great about fumbles is they aren’t era dependent. You will see players from past and present all throughout the list.
 
Bert Jones is the GOAT of quarterbacks when it comes to not fumbling. He had just 16 fumbles on 3,030 drop backs, a fumble rate of only 0.53. The next great quarterback for the Colts, Peyton Manning, comes in next with a 0.73 figure. That’s on 7,787 drop backs.
 
Not fumbling is one of the most underrated aspects of Manning’s game, and Colts fans should be learning that the hard way in 2011. Starting with Week 1 against Houston, Indy’s quarterbacks have been fumbling at rates that Colts fans have not had to deal with since the days of Jack Trudeau, who ranks dead last with a 2.82 fumble rate.
 
Kerry Collins lost two fumbles in the first quarter against Houston. In 227 games, Peyton Manning had never lost two fumbles in the same game. The next week, Collins lost his third fumble against Cleveland. Manning’s career high for a season is 3 lost fumbles.
 
Enter Curtis Painter, who lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown against the Steelers. Painter’s NFL debut was in the infamous game against the Jets in 2009 when the Colts passed on the perfect season. The game-changing play that day was a Painter fumble returned for a touchdown. He has two of them in 7 games. Manning has lost a fumble for a touchdown just once his entire career (2002 vs. Tennessee).
 
Painter has fumbled two more times this season, losing both, making it a grand total of 7 fumbles with 6 lost fumbles by the Colts quarterbacks in just 7 games. They may have only thrown 3 interceptions, but the Colts lead the league in fumbles lost thanks in large part to their quarterbacks.
 
How many snaps has it taken for Peyton Manning to lose his last 6 fumbles? He has 6 lost fumbles in his last 3,691 drop backs. That’s 101 games. That’s another aspect of the game the Colts are missing out on this season.
 
Sid Luckman ranks third in fumble rate (0.77), but we don’t know exactly how many he had in his career. Even if it was just 5 more, that’d put him back above 1.00 (1.03 to be exact).
 
For Joe Namath fans, here’s a stat where Namath actually looks elite. He ranks fourth with a 0.83 fumble rate. And that number would actually be a little better if we had his total sacks. So rejoice, Namath fans. You have one number to go with the guarantee.
 

Other Data

This dataset provides us with a chance to look at some other interesting topics.

Contact Rate and Alternative Fumble Rate

 
Another way to look at fumbles would be to consider only the plays where the quarterback ran with the ball or was sacked (Contact Rate). Of course players are hit on successful pass attempts as well, meaning it wouldn’t be a true contact rate.
 
Only the 131 quarterbacks with complete sack data were used for this section. Due to the long list, we’ll only look at the top 10 and bottom 10.
 

Contact Rate, Top & Bottom 10

Rk	QB	Contact Rate	Rk	QB	Contact Rate
1	Dan Marino	6.39	122	Mike Phipps	19.15
2	Peyton Manning	7.41	123	Roger Staubach	19.64
3	Mark Rypien	7.90	124	David Garrard	19.68
4	Jim Hart	7.99	125	David Carr	20.06
5	Drew Brees	8.42	126	Daunte Culpepper	20.24
6	Vince Ferragamo	8.71	127	Steve Young	20.65
7	Dan Fouts	8.83	128	Randall Cunningham	22.69
8	Steve DeBerg	9.05	129	Greg Landry	24.49
9	Eli Manning	9.12	130	Kordell Stewart	24.64
10	Jim Everett	9.45	131	Michael Vick	28.59

 
No surprises with some of the all-time pocket passers being in the lowest Contact Rate group, while some of the all-time scramblers have the highest Contact Rate. Mike Phipps and Greg Landry are a bit surprising.
 
Using only the plays with contact, a new Fumble % can be calculated. After all, every quarterback fumble is statistically a sack or run by the quarterback.
 

Adjusted Fumble %, Top & Bottom 10

Rk	QB	Adj. Fumble%	Rk	QB	Adj. Fumble%
1	Bert Jones	3.34	122	Billy Joe Tolliver	17.41
2	Jim McMahon	5.32	123	Eli Manning	17.80
3	Greg Landry	5.50	124	Bill Nelsen	17.83
4	Kordell Stewart	5.71	125	Jake Delhomme	17.89
5	Joe Theismann	6.04	126	Dan Marino	19.26
6	Steve Young	6.30	127	Dan Fouts	19.52
7	Ken Anderson	6.54	128	Kerry Collins	19.55
8	Joe Montana	6.88	129	Mark Rypien	20.09
9	Charlie Batch	7.08	130	Kurt Warner	23.56
10	Roger Staubach	7.61	131	Jack Trudeau	26.00

 
It’s official. No one protected the ball better than Bert Jones. He was sacked a lot (8.3%) in his career, and he was a good scrambler prior to injuries, yet he just didn’t fumble the football. He also didn’t have the Tuck rule, which creeps up every once in a while to make it okay for a quarterback to fumble as long as he does it a certain way, nor did he have the benefit of instant replay to overturn any calls. Though that one may work both ways as plays that were whistled dead due to down by contact may have actually been fumbles.
 
Last word about fumbles: ran a correlation test between career sack % and career fumble % for the 131 quarterbacks with the data, and the correlation was 0.20, which isn’t very strong. Just because a quarterback is sacked often, it doesn’t mean he’s going to develop a case of fumbilitis.
 

The Other Guys

What about quarterbacks that are either too young or in most cases not good enough to have reached 1,500 career attempts? It’s likely we’d find much worse turnover numbers for these players, which would explain why they didn’t play more.
 
We selected just a few interesting names of such players, mostly ones that are either active or some famous busts. And yes, because it’s impossible to avoid, we step back into the Tebow Zone.
 

Other QBs - Turnover %

QB	Passes	Sacks	Rushes	Total DB	Fum	Fum%	INT	INT%	TO	TO%
Tim Tebow	119	12	59	190	2	1.05	3	2.52	5	2.63
Sam Bradford	786	55	36	877	14	1.60	17	2.16	31	3.53
Billy Volek	561	49	52	662	11	1.66	15	2.67	26	3.93
Matthew Stafford	742	42	30	814	9	1.11	25	3.37	34	4.18
Josh Freeman	1034	57	126	1217	20	1.64	34	3.29	54	4.44
Ryan Fitzpatrick	1377	98	165	1640	27	1.65	48	3.49	75	4.57
Steve Walsh	1317	40	80	1437	21	1.46	50	3.80	71	4.94
Mark Sanchez	1102	69	79	1250	25	2.00	39	3.54	64	5.12
Derek Anderson	1436	72	76	1584	27	1.70	55	3.83	82	5.18
Vince Young	1191	75	265	1531	38	2.48	43	3.61	81	5.29
Rex Grossman	1269	76	71	1416	26	1.84	49	3.86	75	5.30
Kevin Kolb	525	38	49	612	15	2.45	21	4.00	36	5.88
JaMarcus Russell	680	70	40	790	25	3.16	23	3.38	48	6.08
Sage Rosenfels	562	19	48	629	11	1.75	29	5.16	40	6.36
Heath Shuler	593	46	67	706	13	1.84	33	5.56	46	6.52
Ryan Leaf	655	65	59	779	24	3.08	36	5.50	60	7.70

 
Not that we needed more proof that JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf were the biggest busts of the modern era, but they boast a fumble % of over 3.0, and Leaf’s 7.70 Turnover % is extremely bad.
 

Ways to Improve the Data

Getting complete sack data for the old-era players would be a start, but it doesn’t seem like the NFL is in any hurry to accept the research on sacks done by someone like John Turney.
 
Kneel downs and spikes are clock plays, which are never actual efforts of gaining yardage. It would be nice to eliminate them completely, but that would take a mighty effort. Currently they improve the quarterback’s turnover numbers, especially for the players that win a lot of games.
 
A play that does not get credited as a turnover but is one of the biggest in the game is the safety. You give two points to the opponent, the ball, and they often get decent field position afterwards from it. But since they’re technically not a fumble or interception, they don’t go down as a turnover, even though that’s exactly what it is.
 
Aaron Rodgers actually has had 4 safeties already in his career, which would bring his TO% up to 3.03% if they were counted. He was sacked three times in the end zone and called for intentional grounding on another. He had two safeties in one quarter against the Vikings on 11/9/2008. The Packers lost 28-27. 
 
Bernie Kosar (12^th) also had a game with two safeties, and his were in the fourth quarter, which actually were the winning points for the Saints in a 1987 game. They don’t happen often, but when they do, they usually have a big impact.
 
Another play that even has “turnover” in the name is a failed fourth down conversion (turnover on downs). It would be nice to have this data available on quarterbacks for fourth down plays they weren’t successful on. It’s a failure to maintain possession that directly results in the other team getting the ball back. That’s a turnover.
 
Some crazy troll on the Cold, Hard Football Facts message board would even tell you punts and missed field goals are turnovers, but we don't need to go that far.
 

How Important Is It?

Of course not turning the ball over is important. But admittedly, there are some shady results when you look at this list, even between players of the same era.
 
While it’s always nice to see a list with Montana, Manning, Brady and Young in the top 10, there’s also Neil O’Donnell, Matt Ryan, David Garrard and Kyle Orton within striking distance of them. Ben Roethlisberger follows Joey Harrington, while Dan Marino is dangerously close to Kordell Stewart.
 
While you can preach not turning the ball over, the fact is turnovers are going to happen, and happen for various reasons. Situation dictates a lot of them. Pressure does as well. Even being an accurate quarterback and putting the ball in play can cause you to throw more interceptions than the guy that throws his incompletions at the bugs on the ground because he’s so damn inaccurate. Players don’t catch with their ankles, Donovan.
 
Neil O’Donnell ranks so high thanks to being 2^nd all time in lowest interception percentage (2.11%). The irony is he’s best remembered for throwing two of the worst interceptions in history in Super Bowl XXX.
 
Isn’t that the point? Some of the best quarterbacks in history have led the league in interceptions before. There’s not a lot of correlation from season to season when it comes to turnovers. What it really comes down to is you want the quarterback that’s going to avoid the critical turnovers, whether it’s the one in the red zone, the one that sets the opponent up in your red zone, the one that’s easily returned for a touchdown, the one in overtime, or the one on your last-ditch effort. If they come in bunches, you’re probably going to lose that game that day.
 
But every once in a while, you can take a chance and risk a turnover or two. Why not? Playing turtle ball hasn’t won a lot of championships, and points still ultimately win games. Turnovers are just a means of getting to a win, and how your offense and defenses handles them will determine how easy that path is.

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Read more: Aaron Rodgers, Bert Jones, Fumbles, Indianapolis Colts, interceptions, NFL, Peyton Manning, Quarterbacks, turnovers