CHFF Power Rankings: Who's No. 2 Edition
Cold, Hard Football Facts for Oct 05, 2011
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts Power Ranger
Who’s No. 2?
For us power ranking types, that’s really the only question at the season’s quarter pole. Clearly, Green Bay is No. 1, even with a defense that’s been a bit soft in the second half of lopsided games.
A legitimate case could be made for six teams to be in second place – and against, as well.
On to the rankings!
Next three weeks: at ATL, vs. STL, at MIN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Aaron Rodgers is damn good, on pace to throw for 5,116 yards and 48 touchdowns. But so is “Average Packers Opponent Quarterback,” currently on pace to throw for 5,372 yards and 36 touchdowns. The difference? Rodgers has two INTs, “Opponent QB” has eight.
Next three weeks: bye, vs. HOU, at JAX
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Ravens didn’t allow a single return touchdown of any type last year – punt, kick, fumble or interception -- and only one in 2009, making the two-score effort by the Jets in Baltimore Sunday night all the more odd.
Next three weeks: at CAR, at TB, vs. IND
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Darren Sproles is on pace for 896 yards receiving, another 536 rushing, and a total of 2,860 all-purpose yards – which would shatter Derrick Mason’s record of 2,690 from 2000. So yeah, good signing.
Next three weeks: vs. CHI, vs. SF, vs. AZ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Lions are No. 2 in our Quality Stat rankings, with an average rank in our 13 stats of 6.92, trailing only coach Jim Schwartz’s former team in Tennessee. It’s the Year of the Schwartz, people, no matter what the Chinese restaurant placemats say.
Next three weeks: vs. NYJ, vs. DAL, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Patriots are on pace to score 540 points this year after scoring 518 in 2010 (1,058 in two years); the record for points in consecutive years is 1,066 by the 1999-2000 Rams.
Next three weeks: vs. OAK, at BAL, at TEN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Arian Foster has 10 career starts at home, and the numbers are pretty staggering: 237 carries, 1,257 yards (5.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. Eight of his nine 100-yard games have come at Reliant Stadium.
Next three weeks: at PIT, bye, vs. HOU
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It seems inconceivable that the Titans could be 3-1 and No. 7 in our power rankings while ranking No. 32 in yards per carry (2.8), but there we are. Credit the Titans’ pass defense (league-best 9.3 yards per catch allowed) for keeping everything in front of them and leading the way.
Next three weeks: vs. PHI, at NYG, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Fred Jackson is averaging 6.3 yards a carry on 33 first-down attempts, one of the main reasons Buffalo’s scoring average is at 33.2 (up from 17.7 in 2010). They also have only fumbled once in four games, and didn’t lose it.
Next three weeks: at DEN, bye, at NYJ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The inefficient Chargers are at it again. They’re 26th in Scoreability (yards divided by points) and 26th in Bendability (the defensive equivalent).
Next three weeks: vs. SEA, vs. BUF, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Eli Manning isn’t just the best Manning in the league by default this year; he’s got a passer rating of 139.5 in the fourth quarter.
Next three weeks: at SF, vs NO, vs. CHI
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The little things add up – the Bucs lead the NFL in defensive kick returns (15.9 yards each) and are fourth in net punting (43.5 yards each).
Next three weeks: at NE, vs. MIA, vs. SD
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Since the start of the 2009 season, no NFL quarterback has had more regular-season games with passer ratings under 60 than Mark Sanchez (11). The Jets are 1-10 in those games, 21-4 when he goes over 60.
Next three weeks: at STL, bye, vs. PHI
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It’s not good to be a quarterback in the NFC East, at least health-wise – the Redskins and Eagles are tied for the league lead with 15 sacks, followed by Dallas in third (13) and the Giants in a tie for fifth (12).
Next three weeks: vs TB, at DET, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The 49ers are in great position to make the playoffs, but a No. 31 rank on the Offensive Hog Index isn’t helping matters. But as long as they keep avoiding Quality Opponents (no games thus far in 2011 vs. teams that currently have winning records), it’ll be a breeze.
Next three weeks: vs. TEN, vs. JAX, at AZ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Ben Roethlisberger’s 51.4 rating in the fourth quarter (30th) isn’t helping matters in Pittsburgh. Neither is a run defense that’s allowing 4.8 yards a carry (3.0 YPC last year). Neither is being -10 in turnover margin. All in all, this is a team that’s pretty lucky to be 2-2 and not worse.
Next three weeks: at HOU, vs. CLE
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Raiders’ home park is officially named “O.co Coliseum.” What is ‘o.co’? It’s the old overstock.com. What’s Al Davis getting out of the deal, a couple hundred grand and half off a pallet of tinted sunglasses?
Next three weeks: bye, at NE, vs. STL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Cowboys are wasting some superlatives – they’re best in the league in run defense (3.1 YPC) and best in the league in 25+ yard pass plays (16). A team with a passing game that’s that explosive and a run D that’s impenetrable should more or less be unstoppable … unless they stop themselves.
Next three weeks: at BUF, at WAS, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Why are the Eagles 1-3? The simplest reason is that the defense has allowed 12 touchdowns and only three field goals – a couple more red-zone stops, and they’d be 3-1. Also, they were first in the league in passes defensed last year, and they’re 29th this year.
Next three weeks: vs. GB, vs. CAR, at DET
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Falcons allowed 319 passing yards to Tarvaris Jackson in Seattle Sunday. That probably doesn’t bode well considering the next three QBs they face: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford.
Next three weeks: at DET, vs. MIN, at TB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Team nickname is "Bears."
Next three weeks: at JAX, vs. IND, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Factoring in the shortened offseason, a rookie quarterback throwing to him and the general history of first-year receivers, A.J. Green’s start (on pace for 76 catches, 1,248 yards and 8 TDs) is all the more impressive.
Next three weeks: vs. NO, at ATL, vs. WAS
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Last year, the Raiders became the only team in NFL history to double its scoring average from one year to the next. The Panthers could be the second (12.2 in 2010, 22.2 thus far in 2011).
Next three weeks: bye, at OAK, vs. SEA
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Browns lead the league with 14 drops, and are 31st in yards per catch (9.8). Give Colt McCoy something to work with!
Next three weeks: at MIN, bye, vs. PIT
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It’s going in the wrong direction for Kevin Kolb. His passer ratings: 130.0 in Week 1, then 92.5 in Week 2, 69.6 in Week 3 and 67.9 last week.
Next three weeks: vs. CIN, at PIT, vs. BAL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Don’t blame Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars’ problems – he’s averaging 5.1 yards a carry and is on pace for 1,564 rushing yards.
Next three weeks: vs. SD, bye, at MIA
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Last year’s Broncos went 4-12, scored 344 points and allowed 471. This year’s Broncos are on pace to go 4-12, score 324 points and allow 444 points. But they did save a bunch of money on their car insurance.
Next three weeks: vs. AZ, vs. CHI, vs. GB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Donovan McNabb has been decent (80.9 rating, just below the league average), but not when he’s needed to be – the Vikings have only picked up third down conversions with the pass 23.1 percent of the time, better than only Miami and Cincinnati.
Next three weeks: at IND, bye, vs. GB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Chiefs have yet to top 15 offensive first downs in four games; they had at least 16 first downs in all but two games in 2010.
Next three weeks: bye, at NYJ, vs. DEN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Dolphins only had two losing seasons from 1970-2003. Since 2004, they’ve had five, and No. 6 is only five more losses away.
Next three weeks: at NYG, bye, at CLE
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Seahawks head back on the road this weekend, where they are as sure a thing as there is. In a bad way. Their last seven road games, including last season’s playoff trip to Chicago: loss by 24, loss by 16, loss by 11, loss by 23, loss by 16, loss by 21, loss by 15. You don’t need CHFF Insider intel to tell you that the current line of Seahawks +9.5 isn’t enough points to pick Seattle. But still, you do need CHFF Insider. CHFF Insider. CHFF Insider. You are getting very sleepy.
Next three weeks: vs. KC, at CIN, at NO
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: When are good stats actually bad? In the case of the Colts, having the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 tacklers (Pat Angerer, 50, and Kavell Conner, 43) is not a positive – Indy’s defense has been on the field an average of 36:04 per game, most in the league.
Next three weeks: bye, at GB, at DAL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Rams are allowing 179.8 rushing yards a game and a 5.3 YPC average, way up from last year’s 113.1 and 4.5. And if 2010 hadn’t happened, we’d be talking about the Rams as maybe the worst franchise in pro sports – 3-13 in 2007, 2-14 in 2008, 1-15 in 2009, now 0-4 in 2011.
Cold, Hard Football Facts Power Ranger
Who’s No. 2?For us power ranking types, that’s really the only question at the season’s quarter pole. Clearly, Green Bay is No. 1, even with a defense that’s been a bit soft in the second half of lopsided games.
A legitimate case could be made for six teams to be in second place – and against, as well.
- Baltimore: Three impressive wins, but a blowout loss to Tennessee
- New England: The defense is putting up record-setting numbers, in a bad way
- Tennessee: Three straight impressive wins, but they lost to Jacksonville
- Detroit: Yes, they’re 4-0, but have played even with their opponents three weeks running
- Houston: Allowing 40 points to the Saints not a good omen for the future
- New Orleans: Another team that can’t play defense
On to the rankings!
1. GREEN BAY (4-0)
Last week: 49-23 win vs. DenverNext three weeks: at ATL, vs. STL, at MIN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Aaron Rodgers is damn good, on pace to throw for 5,116 yards and 48 touchdowns. But so is “Average Packers Opponent Quarterback,” currently on pace to throw for 5,372 yards and 36 touchdowns. The difference? Rodgers has two INTs, “Opponent QB” has eight.
2. BALTIMORE (3-1)
Last week: 34-17 win vs. New York JetsNext three weeks: bye, vs. HOU, at JAX
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Ravens didn’t allow a single return touchdown of any type last year – punt, kick, fumble or interception -- and only one in 2009, making the two-score effort by the Jets in Baltimore Sunday night all the more odd.
3. NEW ORLEANS (3-1)
Last week:23-10 win at JacksonvilleNext three weeks: at CAR, at TB, vs. IND
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Darren Sproles is on pace for 896 yards receiving, another 536 rushing, and a total of 2,860 all-purpose yards – which would shatter Derrick Mason’s record of 2,690 from 2000. So yeah, good signing.
4. DETROIT (4-0)
Last week:34-30 win at DallasNext three weeks: vs. CHI, vs. SF, vs. AZ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Lions are No. 2 in our Quality Stat rankings, with an average rank in our 13 stats of 6.92, trailing only coach Jim Schwartz’s former team in Tennessee. It’s the Year of the Schwartz, people, no matter what the Chinese restaurant placemats say.
5. NEW ENGLAND (3-1)
Last week: 31-19 win at OaklandNext three weeks: vs. NYJ, vs. DAL, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Patriots are on pace to score 540 points this year after scoring 518 in 2010 (1,058 in two years); the record for points in consecutive years is 1,066 by the 1999-2000 Rams.
6. HOUSTON (3-1)
Last week: 17-10 win vs. PittsburghNext three weeks: vs. OAK, at BAL, at TEN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Arian Foster has 10 career starts at home, and the numbers are pretty staggering: 237 carries, 1,257 yards (5.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. Eight of his nine 100-yard games have come at Reliant Stadium.
7. TENNESSEE (3-1)
Last week: 31-13 win at ClevelandNext three weeks: at PIT, bye, vs. HOU
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It seems inconceivable that the Titans could be 3-1 and No. 7 in our power rankings while ranking No. 32 in yards per carry (2.8), but there we are. Credit the Titans’ pass defense (league-best 9.3 yards per catch allowed) for keeping everything in front of them and leading the way.
8. BUFFALO (3-1)
Last week:23-20 loss at CincinnatiNext three weeks: vs. PHI, at NYG, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Fred Jackson is averaging 6.3 yards a carry on 33 first-down attempts, one of the main reasons Buffalo’s scoring average is at 33.2 (up from 17.7 in 2010). They also have only fumbled once in four games, and didn’t lose it.
9. SAN DIEGO (3-1)
Last week:26-16 win vs. MiamiNext three weeks: at DEN, bye, at NYJ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The inefficient Chargers are at it again. They’re 26th in Scoreability (yards divided by points) and 26th in Bendability (the defensive equivalent).
10. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-1)
Last week: 31-27 win at ArizonaNext three weeks: vs. SEA, vs. BUF, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Eli Manning isn’t just the best Manning in the league by default this year; he’s got a passer rating of 139.5 in the fourth quarter.
11. TAMPA BAY (3-1)
Last week: 24-17 win vs. IndianapolisNext three weeks: at SF, vs NO, vs. CHI
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The little things add up – the Bucs lead the NFL in defensive kick returns (15.9 yards each) and are fourth in net punting (43.5 yards each).
12. NEW YORK JETS (2-2)
Last week: 34-17 loss at BaltimoreNext three weeks: at NE, vs. MIA, vs. SD
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Since the start of the 2009 season, no NFL quarterback has had more regular-season games with passer ratings under 60 than Mark Sanchez (11). The Jets are 1-10 in those games, 21-4 when he goes over 60.
13. WASHINGTON (3-1)
Last week:17-10 win at St. LouisNext three weeks: at STL, bye, vs. PHI
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It’s not good to be a quarterback in the NFC East, at least health-wise – the Redskins and Eagles are tied for the league lead with 15 sacks, followed by Dallas in third (13) and the Giants in a tie for fifth (12).
14. SAN FRANCISCO (3-1)
Last week:24-23 win at PhiladelphiaNext three weeks: vs TB, at DET, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The 49ers are in great position to make the playoffs, but a No. 31 rank on the Offensive Hog Index isn’t helping matters. But as long as they keep avoiding Quality Opponents (no games thus far in 2011 vs. teams that currently have winning records), it’ll be a breeze.
15. PITTSBURGH (2-2)
Last week: 17-10 loss at HoustonNext three weeks: vs. TEN, vs. JAX, at AZ
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Ben Roethlisberger’s 51.4 rating in the fourth quarter (30th) isn’t helping matters in Pittsburgh. Neither is a run defense that’s allowing 4.8 yards a carry (3.0 YPC last year). Neither is being -10 in turnover margin. All in all, this is a team that’s pretty lucky to be 2-2 and not worse.
16. OAKLAND (2-2)
Last week: 31-19 loss vs. New EnglandNext three weeks: at HOU, vs. CLE
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Raiders’ home park is officially named “O.co Coliseum.” What is ‘o.co’? It’s the old overstock.com. What’s Al Davis getting out of the deal, a couple hundred grand and half off a pallet of tinted sunglasses?
17. DALLAS (2-2)
Last week:34-30 loss vs. DetroitNext three weeks: bye, at NE, vs. STL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Cowboys are wasting some superlatives – they’re best in the league in run defense (3.1 YPC) and best in the league in 25+ yard pass plays (16). A team with a passing game that’s that explosive and a run D that’s impenetrable should more or less be unstoppable … unless they stop themselves.
18. PHILADELPHIA (1-3)
Last week: 24-23 loss vs. San FranciscoNext three weeks: at BUF, at WAS, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Why are the Eagles 1-3? The simplest reason is that the defense has allowed 12 touchdowns and only three field goals – a couple more red-zone stops, and they’d be 3-1. Also, they were first in the league in passes defensed last year, and they’re 29th this year.
19. ATLANTA (2-2)
Last week:30-28 win at SeattleNext three weeks: vs. GB, vs. CAR, at DET
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Falcons allowed 319 passing yards to Tarvaris Jackson in Seattle Sunday. That probably doesn’t bode well considering the next three QBs they face: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford.
20. CHICAGO (2-2)
Last week: 34-29 win vs. CarolinaNext three weeks: at DET, vs. MIN, at TB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Team nickname is "Bears."
21. CINCINNATI (2-2)
Last week: 23-20 win vs. BuffaloNext three weeks: at JAX, vs. IND, bye
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Factoring in the shortened offseason, a rookie quarterback throwing to him and the general history of first-year receivers, A.J. Green’s start (on pace for 76 catches, 1,248 yards and 8 TDs) is all the more impressive.
22. CAROLINA (1-3)
Last week: 34-29 loss at ChicagoNext three weeks: vs. NO, at ATL, vs. WAS
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Last year, the Raiders became the only team in NFL history to double its scoring average from one year to the next. The Panthers could be the second (12.2 in 2010, 22.2 thus far in 2011).
23. CLEVELAND (2-2)
Last week: 31-13 loss vs. TennesseeNext three weeks: bye, at OAK, vs. SEA
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Browns lead the league with 14 drops, and are 31st in yards per catch (9.8). Give Colt McCoy something to work with!
24. ARIZONA (1-3)
Last week: 31-27 loss vs. GiantsNext three weeks: at MIN, bye, vs. PIT
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: It’s going in the wrong direction for Kevin Kolb. His passer ratings: 130.0 in Week 1, then 92.5 in Week 2, 69.6 in Week 3 and 67.9 last week.
25. JACKSONVILLE (1-3)
Last week: 23-10 loss vs. NONext three weeks: vs. CIN, at PIT, vs. BAL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Don’t blame Maurice Jones-Drew for the Jaguars’ problems – he’s averaging 5.1 yards a carry and is on pace for 1,564 rushing yards.
26. DENVER (1-3)
Last week: 49-23 loss at Green BayNext three weeks: vs. SD, bye, at MIA
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Last year’s Broncos went 4-12, scored 344 points and allowed 471. This year’s Broncos are on pace to go 4-12, score 324 points and allow 444 points. But they did save a bunch of money on their car insurance.
27. MINNESOTA (0-4)
Last week:22-17 loss at Kansas CityNext three weeks: vs. AZ, vs. CHI, vs. GB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: Donovan McNabb has been decent (80.9 rating, just below the league average), but not when he’s needed to be – the Vikings have only picked up third down conversions with the pass 23.1 percent of the time, better than only Miami and Cincinnati.
28. KANSAS CITY (1-3)
Last week:22-17 win vs. MinnesotaNext three weeks: at IND, bye, vs. GB
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Chiefs have yet to top 15 offensive first downs in four games; they had at least 16 first downs in all but two games in 2010.
29. MIAMI (0-4)
Last week: 26-16 loss vs. San DiegoNext three weeks: bye, at NYJ, vs. DEN
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Dolphins only had two losing seasons from 1970-2003. Since 2004, they’ve had five, and No. 6 is only five more losses away.
30. SEATTLE (1-3)
Last week: 30-28 loss vs. AtlantaNext three weeks: at NYG, bye, at CLE
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Seahawks head back on the road this weekend, where they are as sure a thing as there is. In a bad way. Their last seven road games, including last season’s playoff trip to Chicago: loss by 24, loss by 16, loss by 11, loss by 23, loss by 16, loss by 21, loss by 15. You don’t need CHFF Insider intel to tell you that the current line of Seahawks +9.5 isn’t enough points to pick Seattle. But still, you do need CHFF Insider. CHFF Insider. CHFF Insider. You are getting very sleepy.
31. INDIANAPOLIS (0-4)
Last week: 24-17 loss at TampaNext three weeks: vs. KC, at CIN, at NO
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: When are good stats actually bad? In the case of the Colts, having the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 tacklers (Pat Angerer, 50, and Kavell Conner, 43) is not a positive – Indy’s defense has been on the field an average of 36:04 per game, most in the league.
32. ST. LOUIS (0-4)
Last week: 17-10 loss vs. WashingtonNext three weeks: bye, at GB, at DAL
The Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Rams are allowing 179.8 rushing yards a game and a 5.3 YPC average, way up from last year’s 113.1 and 4.5. And if 2010 hadn’t happened, we’d be talking about the Rams as maybe the worst franchise in pro sports – 3-13 in 2007, 2-14 in 2008, 1-15 in 2009, now 0-4 in 2011.
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