Championship Week in Review: Trifecta, Props Surge Into Super Bowl

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jan 22, 2014



The CHFF Trifecta has surged into positive territory with a huge late run, while the Cold, Hard Football Facts Real and Spectacular Picks stand on the cusp of their fifth straight money-making postseason in their five-year history.

But our Real and Spectacular Picks need a Super Bowl victory to keep that streak alive. Our flagship picks – we have picked every single NFL game straight up and against the spread since 2009 – stand at 5-4-1 ATS here in the 2013 postseason.

A Super Bowl victory will end our postseason at 6-4-1 ATS. Our championship weekend was highlighted by nailing the exact score of Seattle 23, San Francisco 17 in the NFC title game.

Our Real and Spectacular Super Bowl pick will be posted next week, and we arrive in New York City midweek to report to you from the scene of what will probably be a frosty Super Bowl XLVIII.

We have produced a Real and Spectacular postseason record of 34-19-1 (.642) ATS picking every playoff game for five years.

The big winner in the championship round, meanwhile, was the CHFF Trifecta. It powered through a perfect 3-0 slate of ATS and over-under picks in the two conference title games and have climbed over .500 for the season, making up plenty of lost ground with from a sluggish start to the season with a huge surge down the stretch.

 

Powerful Late-Season Results

All three of our portfolios of picks are poised to produce money-making results in the 2013 postseason. Our flagship Real and Spectacular Picks, meanwhile, have produced big money-making performances late in the year here in 2013 and over the five-year long haul of their existence.

Some of the highlights:

  • 65-48-6 (.575) ATS since Week 11
  • 28-13-1 (.683) ATS since Week 16
  • 136-76-2 (.642) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2009-present)
  • 34-19-1 (.642) ATS in the postseason (2009-present)
  • 85-41-2 (.675) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2011-present)
  • 20-11-1 (.645) ATS in the last three postseasons (2011-present)

We’ve known for some time that our Quality Stats grow more valid as we get later in the season. And we now have five seasons of proof.

The late-season surge here in 2013 is part of a long-term trend of big-money-making late-year success dating back to 2009, when we began picking every game, every week, both straight up and ATS.

You can see our performance every week from 2009 to 2012 documented here; and every week’s performance here in 2013 documented below.

You can look up every individual pick from 2010 through 2013 by clicking the "All Stats" button on the NAV bar here at CHFF Insider. You can also find there our week-by-week Quality Stats if you wanted to see where, say, Denver's Passer Rating Differential stood in Week 14 2011. Our individual picks in 2009 can be found with a little digging in our main homesite archive

 

Conference Champions Week in Review

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 1-1 straight up and 1-1 ATS – We nailed the San Francisco-Seattle game perfectly, predicting a 23-17 Seahawks victory.

The Seahawks (-3.5) won, 23-17.

We expected New England (-5.5) to make a game of it in Denver, with their surging offense and victory over Denver early in the season. Since we liked the Patriots getting so many points, we predicted them to win outright – largely to support our preseason prediction of a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl.

Instead, the Broncos dominated, winning 26-16 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated.

 

The King of Props went 3-1this effort was led by a 2-0 performance in the Patriots-Broncos AFC title game.

New England’s Tom Brady and Julian Edelman were each on the losing side of the scoreboard. But they proved winners for the King of Props: Brady (Over 269.5 passing yards) totaled 277 yards through the air; Edelman (Over 6.5 catches) led all players with 10 receptions.

In the NFC title tilt, the King of Props anticipated a tough day getting the ball into the end zone (Under 4.5 total touchdowns). The 49ers and Seahawks combined for four touchdowns, the prop victory not secure until Richard Sherman’s famed tipped ball in the end zone to preserve the victory for the Seahawks and the King of Props.   

Those struggles by the 49ers handed the King of Props his only loss for the week (Vernon Davis Over 40.5 yards receiving). The San Francisco tight end was held to 2 catches for 16 yards.  

The King of Props is a scorching 52-27-1 (.658) in 2013, and over the second half of the year produced an electrifying record of 32-13 (.711), since Week 9.

 

The CHFF Trifecta went 3-0 – its fourth straight slate of winners, a period during with the Trifecta has gone 11-3 (.727). That record includes a 9-2 mark here in the postseason.

The Trifecta, after a slow start to the year, has rapidly made up lost ground and moved into winning territory for the season.

The Seahawks (-3.5) held on to cover in their dramatic 23-17 win, while San Francisco and Seattle scored just enough points to earn the Trifecta another victory (Over 39.5).

The high-scoring Patriots and Broncos (Under 57), meanwhile, each fell well below their regular-season scoring averages, totaling 42 points and handing the Trifecta its easiest win of the week.  

The Trifecta is 9-2 (.750) in the postseason and 30-29-3 (.508) overall in 2013.

 

The Intelligence Index has not offered any postseason picks – with largely only smart teams advancing to the playoffs, there are  few opportunities to find those “Mental Mismatches” that served us and CHFF Insiders so well all season.

But as we noted here recently, winning in the NFL is almost always a matter of Brains Over Brawn.

The Intelligence Index closed its debut season of “Mental Mismatches” with a record of 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS.

 

Weekly Year-to-Date Results

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-1-1

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props Week 13 – 3-1

King of Props Week 14 – 4-0

King of Props Week 15 – 2-2

King of Props Week 16 – 2-1

King of Props Week 17 – 1-1

King of Props Wildcard – 2-2

King of Props Divisional – 3-1

King of Props Conference – 3-1

Final 2013 regular season – 44-23-1 (.657)

2013 postseason – 8-4 (.667)

Total 2013 season – 52-27-1 (.658)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 10-5 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 13 – 9-7 straight up; 5-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 14 – 13-3 straight up; 9-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 15 – 8-8 straight up; 8-7-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 16 – 11-5 straight up; 11-5 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 17 – 13-3 straight up; 12-4 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Wildcard – 1-3 straight up; 3-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Divisional – 3-1 straight up; 1-2-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Conference – 1-1 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Final 2013 regular season – 162-93-1 (.635) straight up; 113-134-9 (.457) ATS

2013 postseason – 5-5 straight up (.500); 5-4-1 (.556) ATS

Total 2013 season – 167-98-1 (.631) straight up; 118-138-10 (.461) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 13 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 14 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 15 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 16 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 17 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Postseason – no picks

Final 2013 regular season – 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 13 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 14 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 15 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 16 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 17 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Wildcard – 4-1

CHFF Trifecta Divisional – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Conference – 3-0

Final 2013 regular season – 21-27-3 (.438)

2013 postseason – 9-2 (.818)

Total 2013 season – 30-29-3 (.508)

 

Conference Championship Real and Spectacular Picks

New England at Denver (-5.5)

CHFF Pick: New England 28, Denver 27

Final Score: Denver 26, New England 16

CHFF Result: straight up loss (0-1); ATS loss (0-1)

 

San Francisco at Seattle (-3.5)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 23, San Francisco 17

Final Score: Seattle 23, San Francisco 17

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-1); ATS win (1-1)


From our partners




Team Pages
AFC East NFC
South
North
West

Connect With Us
Sign up for our newsletter to recieve all the latest news and updates...




The Football Nation Network

© Copyright 2014 Football Nation LLC. Privacy Policy & Terms of Use   Logout
Some images property of Getty Images or Icon/SMI