Burn unit: who will get toasted by WRs in 2012?

You know our take on wide receivers: they are largely overvalued by fans, analysts and NFL executives. We just published our latest treatise on the topic of Shiny Hood Ornament wide receivers today called "Gluttony: the wide receiver feeding frenzy."

Yes, it's true, our fine-feathered friends, throwing big money at wide receivers is now one of the seven deadly sins. But as you know, NFL executives are helpless in the face of this temptation. You know what they say: opportunity knocks once, but temptation beats down the door.

And nine different free-agent wide receivers (as of Friday morning) had already beaten down the doors of new and old teams to land swanky deals. Meanwhile, Detroit's Calvin Johnson inked a record-setting new deal with the Lions, the team that made him the No. 2 overall pick in the 2007 draft, and record-setting pass catcher Randy Moss will be back in the NFL after missing the 2011 season, this time with the San Francisco 49ers.

More often not, teams filled with so much hope right now by their shiny new wide receivers will be burned by these deals. That's generally what happens to teams when they lavish volatile wide receivers with big contracts.

So, without further a-don't, here's a look at the 11 wide receivers who locked up new deals this week and the type of burn said team is likely to suffer because of it.
 
Smart move/no burn: Randy Moss to San Francisco
The 49ers did almost everything well last year except get the ball downfield. They were No. 20 in Real Passing Yards Per Attempt. Moss gives them a world-class downfield threat if he plays up to potential and they landed him dirt cheap with no guaranteed money. As we wrote earlier this week, "right team, right deal, right price."
 
Smart move/no burn: Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal to San Diego
The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson but signed two players in the wake of his departure. Meachem (four years, $25.9 million, $14 million guaranteed) and Royal (three years, $13.5 million, $6 million guaranteed). Neither deal is outrageous. They get both players for less than Jackson suckered out of the Buccaneers.
 
Meachem is a former first-round pick who can stretch the field (career 16.1 YPC) but whose overall numbers during his four years (141 catches, 2,269 yards) were kept low because he played on a New Orleans team with so many weapons and with a QB who excelled at spreading the ball around. He could prove the best find of the 2012 free-agent WR pool.
 
Royal has been little more than an undersized (182 pounds) possession receiver (10.2 YPC) during his four years in Denver, never topping 1,000 yards. But he does return punts and kicks.
 
Hey, it's a little warm in here: Reggie Wayne stays with Indianapolis
The rumor mill swirled that Peyton Manning was going to make his longtime batterymate part of any deal. Instead, Wayne re-signed with his old team. Good news for future QB Andrew Luck, who is going to need some legit weapons. Wayne is proven, and the money is not outrageous:
 
First-degree burn: Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan to Washington
The Redskins mortgaged their future by trading three first-round picks and a second to move up to St. Louis’s spot at No. 2 in the draft, most likely for the purpose of landing Heisman Trophy winner and physical phenom QB Robert Griffin III. If he proves the real deal, the trade will be worth it. Quarterbacks make teams, after all.

Washington’s big free-agent moves? They arm Griffin with two "Just Another Guy" wide receivers in Garcon and Morgan. Garcon’s is a five-year $42.5 million deal with $20.5 millioon guaranteed. Seems a lot for a guy who’s not proven yet he can be a No. 1. The Redskins, of course, are famous for lavishing big money on players who fail to live up to expectations.
 
Second-degree burn:  Calvin Johnson re-ups with Detroit
Johnson may be the most talented receiver in football today. That’s not the issue. The issues here with his huge contract extension are two-fold. The record amount of money: a $132 million deal (not likely to be fulfilled) and a ridiculous $60 million in guaranteed money.
 
Johnson is the rare wide receiver good enough to take over a game – for now. But the fact of the matter is that this team had a defense that crumbled late in the year and is still not ready for primetime in many ways (0-5 vs. Quality Opponents). They have a lot of other holes to fill to become a true contender – Johnson's outrageous deal makes it harder to fill them.
 
Third-degree burn: Vincent Jackson to Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers signed the former Chargers receiver to a 5-year, $56 million deal. He's a great player. The deal could pay off in terms of some improvements in the passing game. But as we often say, quarterbacks make wide receivers, wide receivers to do not make QBs. If Tampa really believes Jackson is going to turn Josh Freeman into Tom Brady, they're in for a rude awakening come September. Meanwhile, the team desperately needs to spend money on a defense that surrendered 494 points in 2011, worst in the NFL and worst in Tampa’s largely sorry history.  
 
Who cares: Laurent Robinson to Jacksonville
Robinson had a breakout season with the Cowboys in 2011 and became one of the season's biggest surprises (54 catches, 858 yards, 11 TDs). Robinson should immediately take over as the Jags’ No. 1 receiver. But that doesn't mean he'll shine. With Blaine Gabbert under center after a Jimmy Clausen-esque rookie season and RB Maurice Jones-Drew eating up all the short passes, expect zero impact from this move.
 
Who cares:  Eric Weems to Chicago
The former Falcons receiver and return specialist will give the Bears some depth both on offense and special teams.  But he’s caught just 24 passes in four years and no threat to do anything to change the team’s decades of misfortune at quarterback.

Who cares: Harry Douglas re-signs with Atlanta
The role-playing wide receiver has caught three touchdowns in three seasons with the Falcons, one each year. So at least he's consistent.
 

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Read more: Calvin Johnson, free agency, Free Agents, NFL, NFL Free Agency, NFL Free Agents, Pierre Garcon, Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson