Brady-Manning XIV: Tom Terrific Boasts Betting Edge

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 21, 2013



Note: Each week of the NFL season, our Vegas insider Sean O'Neill takes CHFF Insiders behind the scenes and into the board rooms of the Vegas wise guys, providing valuable insight into the minds of the guys who set expectations each week and each NFL season. For information like this each week, and much, much more, become a CHFF Insider today.

By Sean O'Neill
Cold, Hard Football Facts Vegas Insider (@sean_oneill)

This might be the only stat that won't be screamed by the talking heads this week heading into Brady-Manning XIV:

Tom Brady's New England Patriots are 8-4-1 against the spread playing Peyton Manning's Indianapolis Colts or Denver Broncos. The over is 9-4.

To say that many a degenerate will have money on the Denver-New England showdown on Sunday is as obvious as declaring that Brady's wife is attractive.

It'll be one of the highest bet games of the regular season for a number of reasons:

  • New England and Denver are two of the biggest public teams in the league
  • The two most famous players in the sport are playing
  • Both teams played in prime time "chase games" last week, where the public paid more attention because it had to make up for early losses in the day
  • It's the longest running drama on prime time television outside of Springfield 

"I thought Chiefs-Broncos was gonna get more large bets than we did," said Jeff Stoneback, sports book manager at The Mirage in Las Vegas. "But the players didn't do too good in the day so that could've been part of the reason we didn't get the action that we thought, and the Chiefs still aren't the public team. 

"But this game on Sunday, I'm sure we're gonna get a lot of action on that game."

Last week, Denver cashed for the public as eight-point favorites at home over previously undefeated Kansas City. Stoneback said the sharps were on the Chiefs "but the general public was on the Broncos and the public money overwhelmed the sharp money."

In New England's meeting against Carolina on Monday night, the last-second controversial pass interference call against Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly that wasn't gave Panthers backers the money. 

Whatever you believe was the right result for the end of the game, the final score resulted in a win for the books with the public on New England at +3.5. 

"The Patriots, if they scored, would've been the Patriots and over, which was the worst case scenario," said Stoneback, thankful that he didn't have to pay the 13/5 for every parlay ticket with that result on it.

When we called Stoneback on Tuesday, he hadn't set a line for this game because the Patriots played the night before. The public played New England to a loss and Denver to a win last week. Recency bias tells us that the public will ride the Broncos' horse again. The Mirage gave the Broncos a field goal to start, and was bet down to 2.5.

"You'll have the sharps in on the dog," said Stoneback. 

"Any time you get a Quality Team, usually doesn't matter if they're on the road or not, if you can get more than a field goal with them, and here you get a Quality Team in New England at home getting that field goal. So the sharps will definitely be on New England. I anticipate the public will keep doing what they have been all season and betting on Denver."

They may also bet on Denver because New England is on a short week. Discounting the Week 2 game between San Diego and Philadelphia because both teams played in the Week 1 MNF doubleheader, teams with only six days of rest before returning to the field on Sunday are 8-11 ATS this season (42 percent).

So does the value actually lay with the Broncos because of this trend and getting only less than a field goal?

"It is a short week, they're at home," said Stoneback, "that could have a factor in where people's handicapping and whatnot. 

"But that field goal number is such a strong number. If it goes under -3, the sharps will lay it, above -3 the sharps will take it both ways."

Here's a look at the history between the two Hall of Famers, with all data courtesy of pro-football-reference.com.

Year   Game                               Result                 ATS record

2001: Colts at Patriots +11.5  Patriots 44-13      Brady 1-0

2001: Patriots at Colts -10.5   Patriots 38-17      Brady 2-0

2003: Patriots at Colts -3.5    Patriots 38-34      Brady 3-0

2003: Colts at Patriots -3.5    Patriots 24-14      Brady 4-0

2004: Colts at Patriots -3       Patriots 27-24      Brady 4-0-1

2004: Colts at Patriots -1       Patriots 20-3       Brady 5-0-1

2005: Colts at Patriots +3      Colts 40-21         Brady 5-1-1

2006: Colts at Patriots -2.5    Colts 27-20         Brady 5-2-1

2006: Patriots at Colts -3       Colts 38-34         Brady 5-3-1

2007: Patriots at Colts +5      Patriots 24-20      Brady 6-3-1

2009: Patriots at Colts -1.5    Colts 35-34         Brady 7-3-1

2010: Colts at Patriots -4.5    Patriots 31-28      Brady 7-4-1

2012: Broncos at Patriots -6   Patriots 31-21      Brady 8-4-1

 

 

Wild Swings 

Two of the most unlikely games on last week's board got some serious heavy action.

The titanic tussle between the Jets and Bills was irrelevant in states not named New York, New Jersey or Nevada. But for whatever reason, money poured in on the Jets, taking Gang Green from 1.5-point dogs to 2-point favorites at kickoff.

"I was still looking at this game yesterday and saying, 'how did this happen?'" said Stoneback, reflecting on Buffalo's 37-14 beatdown, "cause that was one of our biggest games of the day. Two non-marquee teams and we didn't have any sharp money on either side and I don't know why the public was in on that game, but they were on the Jets.

"I had no explanation for it."

While the same can be said for Falcons-Buccaneers when it comes to the spread -- Atlanta opened at -1.5 and closed at +2 and then got thrashed 41-28 -- but the outcome was different for Stoneback.

"That game ended up turning into a loss for us. We took some money on the Buccaneers. The Falcons and Texans are two teams that have seemed to quit. The Buccaneers, even though they have all those loses, they had a lot of close games, and they finally won a game. The public, they were in on that game"

Tampa, currently riding a three-game ATS winning streak, is now a team that the sharps are rolling with, especially as heavy dogs.

"Actually, I was a little surprised that that line came out as high as it did this week," said Stoneback. "Detroit opened -9.5, we've taken some money on Tampa already to knock it down to 9. We took a bet on it today. That's one, I'm sure the sharps are gonna be on Tampa Bay. 

 

Silver & Black Makes Bettors Black & Blue

As mentioned earlier in the year, the Cowboys, who were off last week, are one of the best spread teams this year, with a 7-3 ATS record. 

Dallas is tied with Carolina, who are on a six-game winning streak straight up and ATS. 

But along with these playoff contenders at the top of the spread standings is a team that when last favored were blown out at home by 29 points.

Yep, the Oakland Raiders are 7-3 ATS, despite being 4-6, 27th in the Quality Stats Power Rankings and were quarterbacked on Sunday by a guy that walked on at Penn State and went undrafted. 

Is the public sophisticated enough to make this info count?

"No they're not, it seems like we win money on the Raiders game every week," said Stoneback. "That was the biggest game of the week [against the Texans]. A good spread team playing a horrible team that hasn't won since Week 2 or something. There's a situation, even with the quarterback being out, you see the opposite side [being played] even though the opposite side is a bad team. Usually every week the Raiders are a good team."

Public, now you know.

 

Cash that Ticket!

Only four teams have clinched their season win totals so far. With it's win at Jacksonville, the team nobody is talking about, the Arizona Cardinals, have gone over the 5.5 total set for them. Last week, Stoneback mentioned that it was another loser for him, with the book in bad shape coming down the stretch. 

Here's a look at more teams that are a game away from cashing their tickets, with comments from Stoneback:

Carolina Panthers, over 7.5: "Carolina's a loser for us on the over. The total was 7.5, you're looking at them to go 8-8. I guess they figured they'd have a pretty good defense. You never thought Atlanta would be as bad as they are in that division. We figured that one wrong, obviously. The sharps were right and we were wrong."

Green Bay Packers, under 10.5: "It's a very small loser, almost a break even. There wasn't a whole lot of action on that one, we had it at 10.5, it must've been the right number because we didn't take a lot on either side compared to some other teams."

Minnesota Vikings, under 7: "Hey, we finally hit a winner! But a very small winner, though. That was almost no decision either way. We did take quite a bit of money on both sides on that one though, it was balanced out. That one we couldn't screw up."

New Orleans Saints, over 9: "Small loser. The small losers are no big deal."

San Francisco 49ers, under 11: "Actually, this one is just like the Vikings, we had two-way action on both sides. Not a whole lot of action on either side, so we're a small winner."

Washington Redskins, under 8: "Finally we hit one. This one will be a significant winner for us on the under. We opened it at 7.5, and it went all the way to 8, -140."

With the four teams that clinched, the public is 3-1 this season. The only lose coming on the Texans over, and winning on the Chiefs over and Falcons under. 

 

Week 12 lines

All records are ATS. The line in bold is the current consensus line at VegasInsider.com. The other line was released by Cantor Gaming in May when it put out lines for every game of the season up to Week 16. The lines are for comparison purposes to see what the books thought of these games in May.

New Orleans (6-3-1) -9.5, +2.5 at Atlanta (2-8)

Pittsburgh (4-6) at Cleveland (5-5) -2, +3

Tampa Bay (4-6) at Detroit (5-5) -9, -3.5

Minnesota (3-7) at Green Bay (4-6) -4.5, -4.5

San Diego (5-4-1) at Kansas City (6-4) -5, -1

Chicago (2-6-2) at St. Louis (4-6) -1, +1

Carolina (7-3) -4.5, +1.5 at Miami (5-5)

NY Jets (6-4) at Baltimore (4-5-1) -3.5, -6

Jacksonville (2-8) at Houston (2-8) -10, -10

Indianapolis (5-4-1) at Arizona (6-4) -2.5, PICK

Tennessee (5-3-2) at Oakland (7-3) PICK, -1

Dallas (7-3) at NY Giants (4-6) -2.5, -2.5

Denver (6-4) -2.5, +1.5 at New England (5-5)

San Francisco (6-3-1) -5.5, -1.5 at Washington (4-6)

Byes: Philadelphia, Seattle

***** 

Current future odds.

The number in bold is the current price and the second number is the odds at the start of last week. The rest of the numbers go chronologically back to Week 1. Lines are for comparison purposes to see where the value was. All odds are courtesy of the Las Vegas Hotel. 

Super Bowl

Denver: +225, +225, +250, +250, +250, +200, +200, +200, +300, +500, +450, +500

Seattle: +275, +300, +400, +350, +400, +450, +450, +400, +350, +450, +600, +600

New Orleans: +600, +600, +800, +500, +600, +450, +450, +700, +1000, +1200, +1400, +1800

New England: +800, +800, +800, +800, +1200, +1000, +700, +1000, +800, +800, +1000, +800, +1000

Carolina: +1000, +1400, +3000, +4000, +6000, +10000, +10000, +7500, +10000, +10000, +5000, +4000

San Francisco: +1200, +800, +800, +450, +600, +600, +700, +800, +1000, +1000, +600, +600, +600

Kansas City: +1600, +1200, +1000, +1000, +1000, +2000, +2000, +2500, +2000, +2500, +4000,+5000

Cincinnati: +1800, +2000, +1600, +1200, +1200, +2000, +2000, +2500, +1400, +1800, +2000, +2500

Indianapolis: +1800, +2000, +1200, +1600, +1400, +2000, +1500, +2500, +3000, +6000, +4000, +3000

Detroit: +3000, +2000, +3000, +5000, +6000, +5000, +6000, +3000, +5000, +5000, +3000, +4000

Philadelphia: +3000, +5000, +10000, +20000, +10000, +8000, +8000, +10000, +10000, +5000, +2500, +6000

Chicago: +4000, +6000, +4000, +10000, +7500, +4000, +4000, +2500, +1200, +2000, +2000, +2500

NY Giants: +4000, +6000, +10000, +10000, +20000, +100000, +100000, +15000, +10000, +4000, +4000, +2500

Green Bay: +4000, +3000, +1500, +1000, +1000, +1200, +1200, +1400, +1200, +800, +1000, +900

Dallas: +5000, +5000, +3000, +4000, +3000, +3000, +4000, +3000, +2000, +4000, +2500, +2000

Arizona: +10000, +10000, +30000, +20000, +50000, +30000, +10000, +15000, +20000, +10000, +10000, +10000

Baltimore: +10000, +10000, +30000, +10000, +10000, +4000, +3500, +4000, +2500, +3000, +3000, +3000

Miami: +10000, +20000, +10000, +10000, +7500, +6000, +6000, +4000, +2500, +2000, +3000, +4000

Pittsburgh: +10000, +20000, +50000, +30000, +10000, +10000, +20000, +15000, +10000, +7500, +5000, +2000

Cleveland: +20000, +10000, +30000, +100000, +50000, +20000, +8000, +10000, +20000, +20000, +10000, +6000

NY Jets: +20000, +10000, +10000, +20000, +10000, +20000, +10000, +15000, +7500, +10000, +8000, +7000

San Diego: +20000, +20000, +20000, +7500, +7500, +10000, +10000, +7500, +10000, +6000, +6000, +6000

Tennessee: +30000, +20000, +10000, +10000, +10000, +20000, +10000, +5000, +5000, +6000, +10000, +10000

St. Louis: +30000, +100000, +200000, +50000, +50000, +20000, +30000, +30000, +20000, +10000, +5000, +5000

Washington: +50000, +20000, +10000, +20000, +10000, +20000, +8000, +6000, +10000, +5000, +4000, +3000

Oakland: +50000, +200000, +200000, +30000, +100000, +100000, +50000, +200000, +100000, +20000, +30000, +50000

Buffalo: +50000, +200000, +200000, +100000, +30000, +100000, +100000, +15000, +20000, +10000, +20000, +10000

Houston: +100000, +50000, +30000, +10000, +10000, +6000, +4000, +2500, +2000, +1000, +1000, +1200

Atlanta: +999900, +200000, +100000, +30000, +10000, +20000, +8000, +4000, +3000, +1600, +1800, +1600

Minnesota: +999900, +100000, +999900, +999900, +200000, +100000, +20000, +15000, +30000, +20000, +10000, +5000

Tampa Bay: Off the board

Jacksonville: Off the board

 

NFC 

Seattle: +120, +140, +180, +160, +180, +200, +225, +175, +175, +225, +300, +350

New Orleans: +300, +275, +350, +240, +250, +200, +200, +300, +450, +600, +800, +1000

Carolina: +500, +700, +1500, +2000, +3000, +4500, +5000, +3700, +5000, +5500, +2800, +2000

San Francisco: +600, +400, +200, +275, +250, +300, +350, +450, +450, +300, +300, +350

Detroit: +1500, +1000, +1500, +2500, +3000, +2300, +2500, +1400, +2500, +2700, +1600, +2000

Philadelphia: +1500, +2500, +5000, +10000, +5000, +3500, +3500, +5000, +5000, +2700, +1300, +3000

Chicago: +2000, +3000, +2000, +5000, +3700, +1800, +1800, +1100, +550, +1100, +1100, +1300

Green Bay: +2000, +1500, +700, +450, +450, +500, +500, +600, +550, +400, +550, +500

NY Giants: +2000, +3000, +5000, +5000, +10000, +45000, +50000, +7500, +5000, +2000, +2200, +1300

Dallas: +2500, +2500, +1500, +2000, +1300, +1300, +1800, +1000, +2200, +1300, +1100

Arizona: +5000, +5000, +15000, +10000, +25000, +13000, +5000, +7500, +10000, +5500, +5500, +5000

Washington: +25000, +10000, +5000, +10000, +5000, +9000, +3500, +3000, +5000, +2700, +2200, +1500

St. Louis: +15000, +50000, +100000, +25000, +25000, +9000, +15000, +15000, +10000, +5500, +2800, +2500

Minnesota: +500000, +50000, +50000, +50000, +100000, +45000, +10000, +7500, +15000, +11000, +5500, +3000

Atlanta: +500000, +100000, +50000, +15000, +5000, +9000, +3500, +1800, +1500, +900, +1000, +900

Tampa Bay: Off the board

 

AFC

Denver: -175, -160, -125, -125, -110, -150, -150, -140, +130, +200, +160, +180

New England: +350, +350, +350, +500, +450, +300, +450, +350, +450, +400, +300, +350

Kansas City: +650, +500, +400, +400, +450, +900, +900, +1200, +1000, +1100, +1800, +2300

Cincinnati: +700, +800, +700, +500, +550, +900, +900, +1200, +600, +700, +800, +1100

Indianapolis: +700, +800, +550, +700, +900, +700, +1200, +1300, +2500, +1800, +1300

Baltimore: +5000, +5000, +15000, +5000, +5000, +1800, +1700, +2000, +1000, +1300, +1800, +1300

Miami: +5000, +10000, +5000, +5000, +3000, +3000, +2000, +1000, +800, +1300, +1800

Pittsburgh: +5000, +10000, +25000, +15000, +5000, +5000, +10000, +7500, +4500, +3000, +2300, +900

Cleveland: +10000, +5000, +15000, +50000, +25000, +10000, +4000, +5000, +9000, +8000, +4000, +2800

NY Jets: +10000, +5000, +5000, +10000, +10000, +5000, +7500, +3000, +4000, +3000, +3500

San Diego: +10000, +10000, +10000, +3700, +3700, +5000, +5000, +3700, +4500, +2500, +4000, +2800

Tennessee: +15000, +10000, +5000, +5000, +5000, +10000, +5000, +2500, +2300, +2500, +4000, +4500

Buffalo: +25000, +100000, +100000, +50000, +15000, +50000, +50000, +7500, +9000, +4000, +8000, +4500

Oakland: +25000, +100000, +100000, +15000, +50000, +50000, +25000, +100000, +45000, +8000, +12000, +12500

Houston: +50000, +25000, +15000, +5000, +5000, +3000, +2000, +1200, +900, +400, +400, +450

Jacksonville: Off the board


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