Brady blows past Montana

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 18, 2007



Back during the 2004 season, when we launched this little exercise in dominating the world of pigskin analysis, we developed a reputation for washing Tom Brady's balls.
 
Way back then, some "pundits" insisted Brady was no Daunte Culpepper, let alone one of the all-time greats. The Cold, Hard Football Facts, however, declared Brady the best quarterback in the game today.
 
Now that it's obvious to even the Skip Baylesses of the world that (surprise!) the Cold, Hard Football Facts were right, it seems that everybody is washing Brady's balls.
 
Take Sunday night, for example, in New England's 56-10 1995-Cornhuskers-like demolition of a Buffalo team that entered the contest on a four-game win streak.
 
A few minutes before Andrea Kremer blew Tom Brady with her eyes in the postgame interview, NBC analyst John Madden did the same with his words.
 
"Tom Brady is playing better than Joe Montana ever did," said Madden, late in the game.
 
"There's no higher complement," added booth-mate Al Michaels.
 
Madden's words could not have been better timed.
 
He probably didn't know this when he made that statement, but sometime in the first quarter of last night's game those comparisons between Brady and Montana earned quite a bit of statistical validity.
 
It was during last night's game that Brady surpassed Montana on the career passer rating list, to No. 4 all time (among players with 1,500 pass attempts, which is the minimum to qualify for official NFL records).
 
Brady's final numbers Sunday night looked like this:
  • 31 for 39, 79.5%, 373 yards, 9.6 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT, 146.1 rating
He is also just a statistical nose-hair shy of surpassing Peyton Manning on the all-time list.
 
And with their seasons going in opposite directions (Manning has a 72.2 rating in five games this year without Marvin Harrison), Brady could leap Kurt Warner and move past Manning into the No. 2 spot during New England's likely destruction of the Eagles in Foxboro next Sunday.
 
TOP 5 ALL-TIME PASSER RATING LEADERS (through Week 11, 2007)
 
Comp.
Att.
Yards
TD
INT
Rating
Steve Young
2,667
4,149
33,124
232
107
96.809
Peyton Manning
3,349
5,237
40,135
291
150
93.894
Kurt Warner
1,769
2,714
22,116
136
89
93.394
Tom Brady
2,146
3,402
24,623
185
82
92.891
Joe Montana
3,409
5,391
40,551
273
139
92.258
 
Among the many interesting items that jump out from this collection of players is the fact that Brady is the only cold-weather quarterback on the list. He's played more than half his games in New England, Buffalo and New Jersey. Young and Montana played in the same system in the forever springlike atmosphere of San Francisco, with road trips each year to New Orleans, Los Angeles and Atlanta (the members of the old NFC West).
 
Manning and Warner, of course, have spent either all or most of their careers in domes which, as we've seen in the past, makes it easier for quarterbacks to pass the football consistently.
 
Another cold-weather quarterback is poised to crash the party, by the way. Ben Roethlisberger boasts a career passer rating of 91.941, but with 1,299 pass attempts is still 201 tosses shy of qualifying for the official list.
 
For now, though, it's all about washing Brady's balls. So out of the way, Ms. Kremer.
 
Montana and Brady are essentially in a statistical dead heat. Here's how they stack up in the four key components that comprise passer rating (we also added in TD:INT ratio).
 
Completion percentage:
Brady: 63.08 percent
Montana: 63.24 percent
Edge: Montana
 
Yards Per Attempt
Brady: 7.24
Montana: 7.52
Edge: Montana
 
Touchdown Percentage
Brady: 5.44 percent
Montana: 5.06 percent
Edge: Brady
 
INT Percentage
Brady: 2.41 percent
Montana: 2.58 percent
Edge: Brady
 
TD to INT ratio
Brady: 2.26 to 1
Montana: 1.96 to 1
Edge: Brady
 
Basically, no matter how you measure them, the Brady vs. Montana comparison could not be more statistically even. They are within fractions of a percentage of each other in the four components of passer rating.
 
And Brady, like Montana, was considered something of a "game manager" early in his career and is growing statistically dominant later in his career.
 
Montana, for example, did not have his first true statistical breakout season until 1989, his 11th year in the league, when he won his first MVP award after piecing together the following season:
  • 271 for 386, 70.2%, 3,521 yards, 9.1 YPA, 26 TD, 8 INT, 112.4 rating
Here's how that compares to Brady's statistical breakout season 10 games into the 2007 campaign:
  • 250 for 338, 74.0%, 3,059 yards, 9.1 YPA, 38 TD, 4 INT, 134.0 rating
It's important to note that Montana's 112.4 passer rating in 1989 was an NFL record (since surpassed by Steve Young's 112.8 in 1994 and Peyton Manning's 121.1 in 2004). Brady, of course, is on pace to rewrite the passer rating record this year.
 
There's one area, of course, where Brady does not yet compare to Montana: Super Bowls.
 
Montana won four, including three Super Bowl MVP awards. Brady is one shy in each category.
 
However, it's amazing how closely they stack up even in the Super Bowl. Here's how the two quarterbacks stacked up in their first three Super Bowl appearances. You'll notice another near statistical dead heat (including two MVP awards each), though Montana does have an advantage.
 
MONTANA (through three Super Bowls)
Super Bowl
Comp.
Att.
Pct.
Yards
TDs
INTs
Rating
Result
XVI
14
22
63.6
157
1
0
100.0
W 26-21
XIX
24
35
68.6
331
3
0
127.2
W 38-16
XXIII
23
36
63.9
357
2
0
115.2
W 20-16
TOTALS
61
93
65.6
845
6
0
116.1
3-0
 
BRADY (through three Super Bowls)
Super Bowl
Comp.
Att.
Pct.
Yards
TDs
INTs
Rating
Result
XXXVI
16
27
59.3
145
1
0
86.2
W 20-17
XXXVIII
32
48
66.7
354
3
1
100.5
W 32-29
XXXIX
23
33
69.7
236
2
0
110.2
W 24-21
TOTALS
71
108
65.7
735
6
1
99.9
3-0
 
Montana truly separated himself from the rest of the pack of Super Bowl quarterbacks with his MVP performance in his fourth championship game.
 
Montana completed 22 of 29 passes for 297 yards and 5 TDs (147.6 passer rating) in Super Bowl XXIV, a 55-10 win over Denver.
 
They look a lot like the numbers Brady put up Sunday in New England's win over Buffalo. And, it seems, we'll find out if Brady can mirror those numbers, and Montana again, in Super Bowl XLII.





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